An Echelon Media Company
Wednesday March 29th, 2023

As Coronavirus tears Sri Lanka’s apparel sector apart, an insider calls for help

ECONOMYNEXT – Chamila Samarakkodi has been in fashion and apparel manufacturing industry for over 30 years. His firm Design Studio has plants in Anuradhapura and Kurunegala employing over 2500 rural persons. The group exports to UK retailers including Primark, ASDA, Topshop, Sainsbury’s, ASOS, River Island, Oasis and Urban Outfitters, high-end ladies soft and tailored garments.

In this analysis he explains the economic shock to the apparel sector the fallout on workers and the need for support. No event in modern history has caused implications as severe as that of the Covid-19 outbreak, which is in danger of tearing the very seams of the fashion trade, he says.

Tearing the very seams of the fashion trade

The clothing industry has consistently faced instability over the past few years after its slow recovery from the last global financial crisis. Economic headwinds have eroded even the mightiest industry participants globally.

The UK’s most recent shockwave, Brexit, thrust both retailers and suppliers into new and uncharted territory – decreasing the buying power of clients and creating a ‘price-war’ situation for manufacturers in Sri Lanka.

But no event in modern history has caused implications as severe as that of the Covid-19 outbreak, which is in danger of tearing the very seams of the fashion trade. For the first time in memory, we have witnessed the effective cancellation of an entire fashion season:Spring/Summer 2020 is no more. As a result, there are unavoidable financial blows to every supplier involved. Finished garments have been cancelled, gathering dust in warehouses and retiring as dead stock.

Hard losses

Our clients are all closing down stores and cancelling all orders indefinitely, including those that are already a work in progress in our factories, as the UK goes into a lockdown state. Cessation of all trading operations until the health crisis situation is resolved – including the cancellation of all future contracts as our clients attempt to safeguard their business continuity, sustainability and resilience – puts all of us manufacturers in a period of great uncertainty over the next 6 months.

And there is no mercy from the desperate buyers either – a recent article off Drapers, the fashion retail sector’s premier magazine, evidenced the plight the local industry faces as follows:

“Industry-wide, suppliers are forced to absorb direct losses and accrued liabilities. Even the most trusted retailers are simply unable and unwilling to foot any part of the bill. … The devastating effects of these cancellations are being further amplified by forced extended payment terms – non-negotiable, of course. There is little concern for the suppliers that have been – and post-pandemic will continue to be – the mechanics of billion-pound retail businesses.”

Nation-wide impact

In an internal survey I set up, that was carried out among the members of the Sri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association (SLAEA) representing the island’s premier apparel manufacturers and exporters, it was made evident that there is already a struggle to service salaries and other statutory payments over the next 6 months at minimum – or even longer, depending on how the current unprecedented situation plays out – due to the non-availability of funds.

For a group of key players that have persevered through numerous challenges when apparels first kicked off in the country, there is an overarching sense of uncertainty around if there is even a future for the industry post-Covid-19 if adequate buffers aren’t put in place and support provided – and these leaders are certain ramping back up to merely the same scale and health their organisations used to be at will be a slow and tedious process, even after normalcy is restored.

For context, the apparel industry accounts for about half of our country’s total exportsand employs over 15% of the local workforce. In fact, this is the only case in Sri Lanka of a single industry providing mass employment to its citizens (990,000+ skilled workers), in addition to being the country’s second largest FOREX earner for over 8 years with a 2025 target of $8 bn that is at risk – this is what’s at stake and why the government should be worried.

In speaking to many of my colleagues and peers in the industry, I have understood that the gravity of Covid-19’s implications to our organisations are far severe to what we make it out to be in our communications to the authorities, including the Sri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association (SLAEA) and Joint Apparel Association Forum (JAAF-SL) leadership.

Numerous manufacturers – majority being BOI-approved ventures – have already written to the Department of Labour, banks, creditors and so on but believes the urgency and severity of the situation has not been fully appreciated yet. This is an exceptional situation where the government must intervene to safeguard the continuity of one of its largest revenue and employment generators who are already at the point of bankruptcy.

Priorities

Traditionally, many organisations are in the habit of painting a strong and stable image of themselves – particularly true in our culture – but there’s nothing traditional about the challenges we are all collectively faced with today. Now’s the time for transparency and to be upfront on this evolving situation.

For my companies, right now our priorities are the well-being of our 2500+ people – our greatest asset – many of whom are the sole breadwinners of their family; and to keep our business alive until BAU can be resumed. We provide extensive vocational training and upskilling, employee benefits and other forms of social responsibility to our people, their families and the localities ourfactories operate in – including annual sponsorship of school stationary and other needs for the children of our staff, medical insurance and employee counselling, provision of visual and hearing aids, a death donation fund, free meals and transport, and many direct/indirect emoluments to the local citizenry.

This is not possible without a few sacrifices up front though, for which we need the support and approval of the government and its institutions. For instance, we really want to protect all of our employees and have them with us once business resumes – but we can’t do that unless we are allowed temporary lay-offs and other short-term measures.

My organisation alone works withsix other outsourced manufacturing partners with a cumulative workforce of an additional 3500 employees – a demonstration of just how many lives could be changed forever, if we don’t take action.

Government bailout

It’s been almost a month since the more serious implications of Covid-19 kicked in, and after having really put in both individual and concerted efforts to try remediate the pitfall we are headed towards – if not already are in –it’s become apparent that the businesses can’t do this alone. While appreciating all the prompt, hard work the government is putting in to control the spread of the virus – an inspiration to the rest of the world – the post-Covid situation too deserves equal attention. Industries need to be safeguarded via a plan of action, or the country will collapse post-Covid despite having been saved from the virus.

By bringing together all the conversations I’ve partaken in recently, I have laid out the following straightforward requestsand proposed solutions which my colleagues and I hope will ensure the industry has a future in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis:

1. Salaries

1.1. All manufacturers have paid salaries for the month of March, due on 10th April 2020, by way of collecting all available cash-in-hand at their disposal. Even this required certain pay-cuts to have been made.

1.2. Manufacturers have no means to provide for the remaining timeframe of 6 months at minimum until trading resumes and we are all back in business.

1.3. As such, we request the Government to join hands with us and make arrangements to provide some form of allowance for our employees during this period.

1.4. We require permission to initially work on a pro-rata basis for less than the full work week, once we are back in business and are still ramping up to full capacity. This is because securing adequate work from clients will take time.

2. Statutory Payments

2.1. As we face difficulty paying core salaries alone, we request abolishing statutory payments – i.e. EPF and ETF – for the next 6 to 9 months.

2.2. Rescheduling ongoing non-payments of EPF to be paid back in 24 months, with at least a 6 to 9-month grace period and no penalties enforced. This is due to no trading taking place over the next 6 months, and an unclear landscape of how the business and the situation will progress during and after this period.

3. Employment Contracts

3.1. We request laying off a fraction of our staff for the next 6 to 9 months unpaid, i.e. on furlough.

A small price to pay

If you are wondering if these concessions that are sought after will be a tough call for the authorities to make, to me, it’s a no-brainer.Real jobs of real people who need them the most, are at stake here – and we cannot look after them and protect their employment if we aren’t allowed to make some drastic changes in the interim to cushion the shock waves we are facing today. We need to be cautious of this fact.

There are a number of best practices mypartners abroad and their governments have taken up, as well as plenty of examples of incentives similar to what I am proposing being implemented in other countries where the apparel industry is dominant, as illustrated.

Sri Lanka is already knee-deep in increasingly fierce competition with suppliers in Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia. This is no time to experiment, test your confidence and pride, or do nothing.

To end on a (potentially)positive note, however, I am sure the industry as a whole would be sincerely grateful if the above propositions are actioned. We are confident that, with the support of the right parties and if we work together to take the right approach, we will survive through this period and come out as preferred suppliers of choice once global trading resumes – and more importantly, enable all of our employees to resume working with us with minimal disruption to their livelihoods.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Leave a Comment

Leave a Comment

Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Sri Lanka stocks weaken for the second session on profit taking

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s stocks closed weaker on Tuesday for the second consecutive session mainly driven by month-end profit-taking by investors, according to brokers.

The main All Share Price Index (ASPI) closed down 0.56 percent or 51.81 points to 9,233.40.

The market has been on a downward trend since last week as investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach until more clarity is given regarding local debt restructuring after the International Monetary Fund approved the extended loan facility.

“The market is down as the selling trend continues,” said Ranjan Ranatunga of First Capital Holdings, speaking to EconomyNext.

“As there is a price decline in all shares across the board, combined with the month ending followed by margin calls, the market continued on a downward trend.”

The market generated a slow and thin turnover of 860 million rupees.

The main contributor to the turnover is Lanka IOC, following news that the Sri Lanka cabinet has granted approval for three oil companies from China, the United States, and Australia in collaboration with Shell Pl to lease 150 fuel stations for each company to operate in the local market.

The fears of debt restructuring mainly affected the banking and financial sectors, which dragged the index down for the day.

The market saw a net foreign inflow of 30.9 million rupees, and the total offshore inflows recorded so far in 2023 are 1.01 billion rupees.

The most liquid index, S&P SL20, closed 0.81 percent or 21.68 points down at 2,656.30.

The market saw a turnover of 860 million on Tuesday, below this year’s daily average of 1.8 billion rupees.

Top losers were Vallibel One, John Keells Holdings, and Hatton National Bank.

Analysts said the downward trend is expected to continue for the rest of the week as profit-taking is expected to continue. (Colombo/March28/2023)

Continue Reading

Sri Lanka rupee closes weaker at 325/328 to dollar, bond yields up

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s treasury bond yields were up at close on Tuesday and the rupee closed weaker in the spot market, dealers said.

A 01.07.2025 bond was quoted at 31.20/60 percent on Tuesday, up from 30.75/31.00 percent on Monday.

A 15.09.2027 bond was quoted at 28.25/29.00 percent, up from 28.10/60 percent from Monday.

Sri Lanka rupee opened at 325/328 against the US dollar steady, from 322/325 from a day earlier. (Colombo/ March28/2023)

Continue Reading

Sri Lanka Telecom on track rating upgrade track on planned stake sale: Fitch

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka Telecom has been place on watch for a possible rating upgrade after the government, which has defaulted on its sovereign debt said it will sell down its majority stake.

“The rating reflects the potential rating upside due to weakening linkages with SLT’s parent, the government of Sri Lanka (Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating: CC), due to the government’s plan to sell its 49.5 percent stake in the company,” the rating agency said.

“Fitch will resolve the RWP when the proposed disposal becomes practically unconditional, which
may take more than six months.”

The agency said it expect SLT’s revenue growth to slow to a low single-digit percentage in 2023 amid weakening consumer spending due to consumers increasingly prioritising essential needs, such as food and medicine, as real income has fallen significantly following the currency depreciation and unprecedently high inflation.

The full statement is reproduced below;

Fitch Places Sri Lanka Telecom’s ‘A(lka)’ Rating on Watch Positive

Fitch Ratings – Colombo – 27 Mar 2023: Fitch Ratings has placed Sri Lanka Telecom PLC’s (SLT) National Long-Term Rating of ‘A(lka)’ on Rating Watch Positive (RWP).

The RWP reflects the potential rating upside due to weakening linkages with SLT’s parent, the government of Sri Lanka (Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating: CC), due to the government’s plan to sell its 49.5% stake in the company. Fitch will resolve the RWP when the proposed disposal becomes practically unconditional, which may take more than six months.

SLT’s ratings are currently constrained by its parent’s weak credit profile under Fitch’s Parent and Subsidiary Linkage (PSL) Rating Criteria. SLT’s Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) is stronger than that of the state, reflecting the company’s market leadership in fixed-line services, second-largest share in mobile, ownership of an extensive optical fibre network and a strong financial profile. The extent of SLT’s rating upside, following the proposed disposal, will depend on the credit profile of its new parent, the linkage strength with SLT according to our PSL criteria, and the proposed funding structure.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Disposal Plan: SLT announced on 20 March 2023 that the Sri Lankan cabinet has granted in-principle approval to sell the 49.5% stake in SLT held by the state. The disposal is part of a plan to restructure state-owned entities (SOEs) to improve the state’s financial position. SLT said steps have yet to be taken to identify potential buyers and it will take at least eight to 12 months to finalise the transaction. We believe the government will push through the disposal as SOE restructuring is an integral part of the IMF’s financial support to Sri Lanka.

Sovereign Ownership Pressures Rating: We assess the legal ring-fencing and access and control between SLT and the state as ‘Open’ under the PSL criteria, given the absence of regulatory or self-imposed ring-fencing of SLT’s cash flow and the government’s significant influence over the subsidiary’s operating and financial profile. SLT’s second- biggest shareholder, Malaysia-based Usaha Tegas Sdn Bhd with a 44.9% stake, has no special provisions in its shareholder agreement to dilute the government’s influence over SLT.

Higher Rating: However, the PSL criteria allows for a stronger subsidiary to be notched above the weaker parent’s consolidated profile in extreme situations, such as when a parent is in financial distress but the subsidiary continues to operate independently and its banking access appears unaffected. We do not believe SLT is at risk of default in the next 12 months, as it has sufficient liquidity and its debt does not carry cross-default clauses that can be triggered by the parent’s distress.

SLT’s ‘A(lka)’ rating therefore reflects its relativities with national peers, but is still below its SCP due to the drag from state ownership. We apply our PSL criteria because our Government-Related Entities (GRE) Rating Criteria states that in cases where the SCP of the GRE is higher than the government’s IDR, the relevant considerations of the PSL criteria will be applied to determine whether the IDR of the GRE is constrained or capped at the government’s rating level.

Weak Demand in 2023: We expect SLT’s revenue growth to slow to a low single-digit percentage in 2023 amid weakening consumer spending. Consumers are increasingly prioritising essential needs, such as food and medicine, as real income has fallen significantly following the currency depreciation and unprecedently high inflation. SLT’s subscriber numbers and minutes of usage have already fallen in 2022. Competition has also intensified, especially in the mobile segment, leading to lower realisation of recently introduced tariff hikes.

Weak demand should be offset to an extent by increased migration to SLT’s fibre-to-the- home (FTTH) network, from its own copper network, and subscriber additions. FTTH carries higher revenue per user than the copper network. SLT had 475,000 FTTH connections, a 35% increase yoy, by end-2022.

Weakening Profitability: We expect SLT’s EBITDA margin to narrow to around 34% in 2023 (2022: 35.6%) amid lower demand and ongoing cost escalations. All telecom operators increased tariffs by 20%-25% in late 2022 to tackle falling margins. However, the realisation into revenue remains weak, especially in the mobile segment, due to deep price cuts by one of the smaller operators and falling demand. SLT’s fixed-line business is able to maintain stable EBITDA margins due to the recent tariff hike and the FTTH segment’s higher revenue per user.

Leverage to Stabilise: We expect SLT’s EBITDA net leverage to remain around 1.3x in 2023 (2021: 0.9x, 2022: 1.3x) amid falling profitability. However, its leverage is strong for the rating. We expect capex of around LKR25.0 billion annually over 2023-2024 on network upgrades and expanding its fibre infrastructure.

Interest-Rate Hikes, Currency Depreciation Manageable: We expect SLT to maintain its EBITDA interest coverage closer to 4.0x over 2023-2024 (2022: 4.4x) despite interest rates rising almost threefold. Most of SLT’s debt is on variable interest rates, which will raise costs. SLT’s foreign-currency revenue, which accounts for 10%-12% of group revenue, is more than sufficient to meet the group’s foreign-currency operating expenses and interest costs. SLT had around USD10 million in foreign-currency debt at end-
December 2022, compared with USD40 million in foreign-currency cash deposits.

Sector Outlook Deteriorating: Fitch expects the average 2023 net debt/EBITDA ratio for SLT and mobile leader Dialog Axiata PLC (AAA(lka)/Stable) to remain around 1.3x (2022: 1.3x) amid weak margins and high capex. We expect sector revenue growth to slow to 8% in 2023 (2022: 15%), while the average 2023 EBITDA margin for SLT and Dialog should narrow to 31% (2022: 32%) amid low usage and high costs.

DERIVATION SUMMARY
SLT’s SCP benefits from market leadership in fixed-line services and the second-largest position in mobile, along with ownership of an extensive optical fibre network. SLT has lower exposure to the crowded mobile market and has more diverse service platforms than Dialog. However, Dialog has a larger revenue base, lower forecast EBITDA net leverage and a better free cash flow (FCF) profile than SLT. Dialog is rated at ‘AAA(lka)’, while SLT’s rating is under pressure because of the state’s weak credit profile.

SLT has a larger operating scale than leading alcoholic-beverage manufacturer Melstacorp PLC (AAA(lka)/Stable), which distributes spirits in Sri Lanka through its subsidiary, Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka PLC (AAA(lka)/Stable). Melstacorp is exposed to more regulatory risk in its spirits business because of increases in the excise tax, but this is counterbalanced by its entrenched market position and high entry barriers.

Consequently, the company can pass on cost inflation and maintain its operating EBITDA margin, supporting substantially stronger FCF generation than SLT.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch’s Key Assumptions within Our Rating Case for the Issuer:

– Revenue growth to slow to 4% in 2023 amid falling subscriber numbers and lower usage due to weakening consumer spending;

– Operating EBITDA margin to narrow by 150bp to 34% in 2023 due to higher costs and lower volume;

– SLT to continue capex on expanding its fibre and 4G network with LKR25 billion spent annually in 2023 and 2024;

– Effective tax rate of 28% from 2023;

– Dividend payout of 33% of net income over 2024-2025

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:

– Fitch will resolve the RWP when the proposed disposal becomes practically unconditional, which may take more than six months, and once Fitch has sufficient information on the new majority shareholder’s credit profile and linkages with SLT and the proposed funding structure.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

– Fitch would remove the RWP and affirm the National Long-Term Rating at ‘A(lka)’ with a Stable Outlook if the proposed disposal does not proceed and the linkages with the state remain intact.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Manageable Liquidity: SLT’s unrestricted cash balance of LKR14 billion at end- December 2022 was sufficient to redeem its contractual maturities of around LKR11 billion. SLT’s short-term working-capital debt amounted to another LKR10.0 billion and we expect the company to roll over the facilities given its solid access to local banks.

Liquidity is further enhanced by about LKR15 billion in undrawn bank credit facilities, although these are uncommitted. SLT typically does not pay commitment fees on its undrawn lines, although we believe most banks will allow the company to draw down the funds because of its healthy credit profile.

Continue Reading