Economic Crisis

Crisis-hit Sri Lanka’s govt expects not to rely on money printing in 2023

Neshella Perera

Saturday December 31, 2022 12:16 pm

By Neshella Perera

Saturday December 31, 2022 12:16 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s government is expected not to rely on money printing by the central bank as it hopes to meet all the government finances from the increased taxes, the junior finance minister said, as the island nation is facing an unprecedented economic crisis.

Sri Lanka has already increased a raft of taxes including personal income taxes to boost the tax revenue by 70 percent in 2023 compared to this year’s estimated tax revenue.

“With the new taxes being made effective from tomorrow, we see the government earning sufficient revenues to meet expenditure. We hope not to print money to meet these dues because that spirals into inflation,” Shehan Semasinghe, State Finance Minister, told EconomyNext on Saturday (31).

“The revenue currently earned is being managed in an effective manner, compromising expenditures.”

The island nation defaulted sovereign debts this year as it had no foreign currency to repay the external loans. Sri Lanka’s rupee currency also collapsed after the central bank artificially propped it up through pumping dollars into the market.

The central bank also held interest rates artificially low at single digits by printing billions of rupees which was also used to finance government expenditure for a bloated, inefficient state sector.

However, Minister Semasinghe said the past errors will be rectified with new tax policies.

“The people of Sri Lanka have a certain expectation from the government, and the state workers and everyone involved in government enterprises must live up to these hopes. The government sector certainly must be more effective, productive and be able to compete with the private sector,” he said.

“We will not be relying on the central bank financing, because relying will result in higher inflation and economic downturns.”

Sri Lanka’s inflation hit a record 73 percent September mainly due to billions of money printing. However, the central bank’s late policy measures of raising the policy interest rates have helped to ease the inflation to 57 percent in December. (Colombo/Dec31/2022)

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Markets

Sri Lanka’s shares slip on profit taking and selling pressure

Wednesday June 7, 2023 5:18 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s shares closed lower on Wednesday after four consecutive gains in previous sessions spiraled into selling interest and profit taking, an analyst said.

The main All Share Price Index was down 0.28 percent or 24.39 points to 8,722.06, this is the lowest the index has been since May 02, while the most liquid index S&P SL20 was down 0.40 percent or 9.92 points to 2,468.44.

“The market was gaining in the previous sessions and there is selling and profit taking present today, due to continuously being on green,” an analyst said.

In the previous sessions the market was seeing gains, due to lowered policy rates and low inflation stimulating buying interest and driving the sentiment up, an analyst said.

Sri Lanka’s inflation in the 12-months to May 2023 has eased to 25.2 percent from 35.3 percent a month earlier according to a revised Colombo Consumer Price Index calculated by the state statistics office.

The central bank cut the key policy rates by 250 basis points to spur a faltering economic growth as inflation was decelerating faster than it projected.

“There are gradual improvements in the market sentiment, with positive sentiments coming in from lowered policy rates and inflation,” an analyst said.

The market generated foreign inflows of 12 million rupees and received a net foreign inflow of 18 million rupees, due to low share prices and discounted shares followed by a dividend announcement.

The market generated a revenue of 554 million rupees, this is the lowest the turnover has been since May 10, while the daily turnover average was 1 billion rupees. From the total generated revenue, the banking sector contributed 120 million rupees, Diversified Banks contributed 115 million rupees and the Capital Goods Industry generated 78 million rupees.

Top losers during trade were Sampath Bank, Commercial Bank and Aitken Spence. (Colombo/June06/2023)

Bonds & Forex

Sri Lanka Treasuries yields plunge, 12-month down 318bp

Wednesday June 7, 2023 4:04 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Treasuries yields plunged across maturities at Wednesday’s auction with the 12-month yield falling 318 basis points, in one of the biggest one day falls, data from the state debt office showed.

The 3-month yield fell 244 basis points to 23.21 percent.

The 6-mont yield fell 339 basis points to 21.90 percent, along with the 12 months to 19.10 percent.

The short-term yield curve is inverted.

The central bank last week cut its policy rate 250 basis points in a signaling move but is not printing money to enforce the rate cut.

The debt office sold all 140 billion rupees of offered securities. (Colombo/June07/2023)

Bonds & Forex

Sri Lanka forex reserves rise US$722mn in May 2023

Wednesday June 7, 2023 3:48 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves grew 722 million US dollars to 3,483 million US dollars in May 2023 from 2,761 million US dollars in April, official data showed amid weak credit and better inflows.

Sri Lanka lost almost all its reserve in over two years as the central bank sold reserves and printed money to keep rates down (sterilized reserves sales) including borrowed dollars from India.

Gross official reserves fell to a low of 1,705 million US dollars in September 2022.

Sri Lanka’s central bank hiked rates in April 2022 to slow credit and also stopped printing money after it ran out of borrowed Asian Clearing Union dollars from India.

Sri Lanka’s gross official reserves are made up of both monetary reserves of the central bank and any balances of the Treasury account from loans or grants it gets.

The central bank’s net foreign reserves are still negative after busting up borrowed reserves to suppress rates. By April (before the collection of reserves in May) the central bank’s net reserves were negative by 3.7 billion US dollars.

In May alone 662 million US dollars were bought from the market, Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said.

Borrowing dollars through swaps and busting them up, was invented by the US Federal Reserve as it was printing money and breaking the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s.

Sri Lanka received a 350 million US dollar tranche from the Asian Development Bank and 331 million US dollars from the IMF to the Treasury for budget support.

The loans can be sold to the central bank by the government to generate rupees and spend. However, since credit is weak, not all the inflows go out of the country particularly as the central bank is conducting deflationary open market operations on a net basis.

By allowing the rupee to appreciate unlike in previous episodes of recovery in an IMF program, after a bout of money printing, the central bank is bringing down inflation – in some cases absolute prices – and restoring confidence and easing the ‘pain’ of ‘monetary policy’ or stimulus.

Related

Why is Sri Lanka’s rupee appreciating?

Though exports are falling, tourism revenues are also picking up.

The budget support loans, tourism receipts less the reserve collected will widen the trade deficit. Building foreign reserves involves lending money to the US or other western nations and is similar to repaying foreign debt. (Colombo/June07/2023)