Fitch Ratings – Fitch Ratings has affirmed Sri Lanka-based Hatton National Bank PLC’s (HNB) National Long-Term Rating at ‘AA-(lka)’. The Outlook is Stable. Fitch has also affirmed HNB’s outstanding Sri Lankan rupee senior unsecured debt at ‘AA-(lka)’ and outstanding Sri Lankan rupee subordinated debt at ‘A(lka)’.
Key Rating Drivers
Intrinsic Profile Drives Rating: HNB’s National Long-Term Rating reflects its own financial strength, which is highly influenced by exposure to the sovereign’s weak credit profile with ‘CCC+’ Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs). The bank’s rating also reflects its predominantly domestic operations and direct and indirect sovereign exposure, and also factors in HNB’s strong domestic franchise as Sri Lanka’s fourth-largest commercial bank.
Sovereign Profile Shapes OE: The sovereign’s credit profile continues to drive our assessment of Sri Lankan banks’ operating environment (OE) score of ‘ccc+’. The sector is primarily exposed to the domestic economy and has a sizeable exposure to the sovereign through government securities and lending to the broader public sector, which makes banks vulnerable to changes in the sovereign’s financial health. Fitch expects conditions to remain broadly supportive; however, external headwinds may exert pressure on the domestic OE and, thereby, sector performance.
Rising Share of Overseas Lending: HNB’s business model remains centered on retail and SME/emerging corporates lending at 55% of gross loans at end-2025 (2024: 54%). Offshore lending was a key driver of HNB’s corporate loan growth, similar to that of its private counterparts, and contributed nearly half of the segment’s incremental net lending in 2025 and 1Q26. Lending to overseas entities increased further in 1Q26 from 7% of loans at end-2025 (2024: 2%), and we expect it to continue rising as the bank deploys its excess foreign-currency liquidity.
Elevated Risk Appetite: HNB’s risk profile reflects its aggressive loan growth and exposure to the weak sovereign. The bank’s loan book grew 42% in the 15 months to end-March 2026, driven mainly by the corporate segment. We expect loan growth to moderate in the near to medium term as the bank adopts a more cautious approach to new lending amid OE-related challenges. Sovereign exposure via investment holdings dropped to 32% of assets at end-2025, from 42% at end-2023, but remains large and weighs on our risk profile assessment.
Asset-Quality Risks to Persist: HNB’s impaired (stage 3) loan ratio improved further in 1Q26 from 5.7% at end-2025 (2024: 9.4%), supported by its expanding loan book, despite a modest increase in new defaults. Fitch expects credit impairments to rise over the near to medium term on account of prevailing economic challenges, but the impaired loan ratio is still likely to decline due to continued loan growth.
Growing exposure to overseas entities in high-risk markets could also pose risks to asset quality, given the large size of individual exposures, particularly if foreign-exchange movements affect borrowers’ ability to service foreign-currency obligations.
Higher Credit Costs Pressure Earnings: We expect profitability to moderate over the near to medium term, driven by a combination of higher impairment charges and margin compression due to the recent policy rate hike. We project a further decline in the operating profit/risk-weighted asset ratio from 5.7% at end-1Q26 (2025: 6.8%, 2024: 9.9%), mainly due to normalisation of credit costs after impairment reversals in 2025. HNB’s net interest margin stood at 5.2% in 1Q26 (2025: 5.0%, 2024: 5.8%) as it redeployed maturing high-yield government securities to loans at lower interest rates.
Above Average Capitalisation: HNB’s common equity Tier 1 ratio dipped to 16.8% at end-1Q26 (2025: 18.7%), excluding 1Q26 profits, due to dividend distributions and sustained credit growth. Nonetheless, the ratio remains the highest among peers.
We expect the bank’s capital support for HNB Finance PLC (A(lka)/Stable), together with higher regulatory risk weights on gold-backed lending, to have only a modest impact on its capital ratios. We believe HNB’s excess capital position also leaves scope for selective inorganic expansion in the medium term, as indicated by its past interest in acquiring a bank in Bangladesh.
Rising Loan/Deposit Ratio: Aggressive balance-sheet growth in 2025 and 1Q26, funded partly through the deployment of excess liquidity, increased the loan/deposit ratio to 82.1% at end-1Q26 from 69% at end-2024, bringing it closer to pre-crisis levels. We expect the ratio to rise further over the near to medium term in line with the bank’s growth appetite, which could reduce liquidity headroom. Nevertheless, the funding profile remains anchored by local customer deposits, and we see early signs of improvement in access to foreign-currency term funding.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
HNB’s National Rating is sensitive to a change in the bank’s creditworthiness relative to other Sri Lankan issuers. A downgrade of the National Rating is most likely to stem from a deterioration in Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating, through its influence on the OE for banks.
A deterioration in the bank’s key credit metrics beyond our base-case expectations relative to peers would also lead to increased downward pressure on the National Rating, which is driven by its intrinsic financial strength independent of any sovereign rating changes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
HNB’s National Rating is sensitive to a change in its creditworthiness relative to other Sri Lankan issuers. Upside to the National Rating is limited in the near term, due to our assessment of the sovereign rating and OE. That said, an improvement in Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating may lead to an upgrade of the bank’s National Rating.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
Senior Debt
HNB’s outstanding senior unsecured debentures are rated at the same level as its National Long-Term Rating, in accordance with Fitch’s criteria. This is because they rank equally with the claims of the bank’s other senior unsecured creditors.
Subordinated Debt
HNB’s Basel III-compliant Sri Lankan rupee subordinated debt is rated two notches below the National Long-Term Rating anchor. This reflects Fitch’s baseline notching for loss severity for this type of debt and our expectation of poor recoveries. There is no additional notching for non-performance risks, as the notes do not incorporate going-concern loss-absorption features.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The senior and subordinated debt ratings will move in tandem with the bank’s National Long-Term Rating.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
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