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Thursday June 1st, 2023

IMF assistance sought but Sri Lanka must be mindful of its core policies: central bank chief

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s government has decided to seek International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance in the face of its worsening economic crisis but the country must be mindful of the organisation’s core policies, Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivaar Cabraal told an all-party conference on Wednesday (23).

“The opposition and various experts have expressed the belief that connecting with the IMF will boost investor confidence and encourage non-loan inflows.  The IMF has also stressed the urgency of implementing a credible and coherent strategy to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.

“We must also remember that when dealing with the IMF over various economic matters, their policies might be strict,” said Cabraal.

Before President Gotabaya Rajapaksa confirmed Sri Lanka’s plans to go to the IMF, Cabraal had repeatedly denied speculation on the matter and had also reportedly been opposed to the move. There had also been speculation about a rift between Finance Minister Basil Rajapaka and the Central Bank.

High spending politicians and stimulus-happy economists generally dislike the IMF. However, IMF recommendations to trim government generally benefits the general public, according to some analysts.

Related:

Sri Lanka President says has full confidence in CB Governor Cabraal

The central bank chief was speaking at an all-party conference called by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on a proposal by former president Maithripala Sirisena. The conference, currently taking place in Colombo at the time of writing, is being boycotted by the main opposition the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and the opposition National People’s Power (NPP). However, the opposition United National Party (UNP) and Tamil National Alliance (TNA) are in attendance.

Briefing the gathering on Sri Lanka’s prevailing crisis – one of the worst in the island nation’s history – Cabraal many countries suffered the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic but some countries were better prepared than others for the economic fallout that came in its wake.

“When the pandemic was emerging, some countries were on a strong economic footing. But some countries had weakened for various reasons,” he said.

This comment drew the ire of former Prime Minister and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe who took Cabraal to task for bringing up party politics into an important discussion.

“We didn’t come here to discuss party politics or who is responsible. We didn’t come here for politics as intimated by the governor. I regret that he started off by saying this was the previous government’s fault,” said Wickremesinghe.

“What happens if I respond to that? Would that also warrant a response? This will go on, and will end up with Prince Vijaya since none of this would’ve happened if he never arrived in Lanka,” he said, inviting laughter from President Rajapaksa.

“I will only say one thing on this. We were on a different policy trajectory. Back then, people had food to eat, had petrol, etc, I won’t say any more than that,” the former premier said as the president continued to chuckle.

Wickremesinghe also noted the absence of the other opposition parties.

“A section of the opposition is not here. I didn’t come here to defeat them. We have to go and tell them what was discussed here and also get them on board,” he said.

The UNP leader then had an exchange of words with finance minister Basil Rajapaksa over the IMF’s report on Sri Lanka.

He reiterated an ongoing demand for the report to be tabled in parliament, to which the finance minister insisted that the report has not yet been made available to the government.

“This was promised to us on several occasions. I think that’s the reason some parties are not in attendance here. I would like to know if we can have it this week or next,” said Wickremesinghe.

Rajapaksa said: “The IMF report hasn’t been made fully available to us yet.”

Wickremesinghe: “They say they have sent it.”

Rajapaksa: “No, we haven’t got it.”

A back-and-forth ensued, and it was agreed that a draft of the report has indeed been sent to the government. Rajapaksa said some of the contents of the draft have been challenged by the government, and the IMF will finalise the report and send it back.

“So you admit the draft has come. All this time, it was said it hadn’t arrived,” said Wickremesinghe.

“Well, a draft – it first has to be discussed with us. You know better than I do,” said Rajapaksa.

Asked by Rajapaksa if Wickremesnghe wanted the draft which cannot be given as it has yet to be finalised, Wickremesinghe responded seemingly in jest: “No, don’t give it to me. Or [someone] will say a deal has been made.” (Colombo/Mar23/2022)

Comments (2)

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  1. C Perera says:

    Is Cabraal going on his bended knees or is he crawling up the IMF’S proverbial.

  2. Halim dada says:

    Srilankan government should allow the srilankan people who are working in foreign countries can send milk powder solar bulbs fans elecric items ceramic tiles and construction equipment cosmetic products and many products customs sale tax maximum 25 to 30 percent then government has to spend morr on gas and petrol diesel-powered

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Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

  1. C Perera says:

    Is Cabraal going on his bended knees or is he crawling up the IMF’S proverbial.

  2. Halim dada says:

    Srilankan government should allow the srilankan people who are working in foreign countries can send milk powder solar bulbs fans elecric items ceramic tiles and construction equipment cosmetic products and many products customs sale tax maximum 25 to 30 percent then government has to spend morr on gas and petrol diesel-powered

Sri Lanka cuts policy rates 250 basis points amid BOP surplus

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka cuts policy rates 250 basis points lowering the rate at which liquidity is injected to markets to 14.0 percent to from 16.50 percent, saying inflation was falling faster than expected.

The balance payments has also been in surplus for several months.

“The Board arrived at this decision with a view to easing monetary conditions in line with the faster than expected slowing of inflation, gradual dissipation of inflationary pressures and further anchoring of inflation expectations,” the central bank said in its May policy statement.

“The commencing of such monetary easing is expected to provide an impetus for the economy to rebound from the historic contraction of activity witnessed in 2022, while easing pressures in the financial markets.”

“Headline inflation (year-on-year), based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI), continued the deceleration path, faster-than-projected earlier, supported by the lagged impact of tight monetary and fiscal policies, strengthening of the Sri Lanka rupee, reduction in fuel and gas prices, normalisation of food prices and the favourable impact of the statistical base effect.

“The full passthrough of the large appreciation of the exchange rate observed recently is yet to be
reflected in the price levels, and it would quicken the disinflation process, as the prices of imported goods are expected to decline further in the period ahead.”

Sri Lanka’s balance of payments has been surplus for several months and the central bank has allowed the rupee to appreciate. When the BOP is in surplus and as long as the central bank can buy dollars and generate liquidity rates can fall.

“With greater macroeconomic stability being achieved through corrective policy measures, particularly in terms of faster-than-expected deceleration of inflation thus far during 2023 and the benign inflation outlook and the easing of the BOP pressures, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, upon carefully assessing the current and expected developments, decided to relax the stance of monetary policy and reduce the policy interest rates.”

Market rates however has been high amid expectations of a domestic debt re-structuring and mainly government borrowings and liquidity conditions, though private credit is negative and state energy enterprises are making profits or cutting losses.

Loans from the Asian Development Bank has started to come. More funding is also expected from the World Bank further easing government funding. Foreign funding of the budget can widen the trade and current account deficit without harming the balance of payments.

In April the balance of payments was 883 million dollars in surplus after meeting payments including to the International Monetary Fund, slightly up from 858 million dollars in March.

A BOP surplus indicates that the liquidity operations of a reserve collecting central bank is not inflationary.

The full statement is reproduced below:

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka relaxes its Monetary Policy Stance

The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 31 May 2023, decided to reduce the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank by 250 basis points to 13.00 per cent and 14.00 per cent, respectively.

The Board arrived at this decision with a view to easing monetary conditions in line with the faster than expected slowing of inflation, gradual dissipation of inflationary pressures and further anchoring of inflation expectations. The commencing of such monetary easing is expected to provide an impetus for the economy to rebound from the historic contraction of activity witnessed in 2022, while easing pressures in the financial markets.

Inflation is projected to decelerate notably in the period ahead, reaching single digit levels
earlier than expected

Headline inflation (year-on-year), based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI), continued the deceleration path, faster-than-projected earlier, supported by the lagged impact of tight monetary and fiscal policies, strengthening of the Sri Lanka rupee, reduction in fuel and gas prices, normalisation of food prices and the favourable impact of the statistical base effect.

The full passthrough of the large appreciation of the exchange rate observed recently is yet to be reflected in the price levels, and it would quicken the disinflation process, as the prices of imported goods are expected to decline further in the period ahead. The favourable statistical base effect due to large month-on-month inflation that materialised during the last year is expected to slow inflation significantly in the next few months as well. Accordingly, as per the latest projections of the Central Bank, headline inflation is forecast to reach single digit levels in early Q3-2023, and stabilise around mid single digit levels over the medium term

The external sector, which underwent an unprecedented setback in 2022, begins to
demonstrate improved performance

During the four months ending April 2023, the trade deficit decreased notably, compared to a year earlier, reflecting mainly the subdued import expenditure, which outweighed the impact of moderation of external demand for merchandise exports. Inflows to the domestic forex market remain robust following the approval of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The significant revival of workers’ remittances and earnings from tourism continued to build resilience in the external sector.

The renewed foreign investor appetite for short term government securities has also helped improve forex liquidity in the recent months.

The exchange rate, which is allowed to be determined by market forces, continues to reflect positive market sentiments underpinned by the improvement in liquidity in the domestic forex market. The Central Bank has absorbed a sizeable amount of foreign exchange from the domestic forex market thus far in 2023, resulting in a steady increase in gross official reserves (GOR). As of end May 2023, the level of GOR is estimated to have surpassed US dollars 3 billion, including the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China.

Reflecting the improved balance of payments (BOP) conditions, the Central Bank relaxed the cash margin deposit requirements imposed on selected imports in May 2023, and further measures will be initiated to loosen capital flow restrictions in the period ahead. Further, the Monetary Board viewed that a gradual phasing out of the existing import restrictions would need to commence soon.

The continuation of the IMF-EFF supported programme, further financial assistance from international development partners, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank, and renewed investor appetite, coupled with the advances in the debt restructuring process, are expected to ease the BOP constraint significantly in the period ahead, supporting the recovery in domestic economic activity. (Colombo/June01/2023)

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Sri Lanka exports down in April, trade deficit up from March, rupee stronger

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s exports fell 12.6 percent from a year ago to 849 million US dollars in April 2023, amid weaker external demand, while imports were down 15.8 percent to 1,431 million Us dollars, central bank data showed.

Exports also fell 1,037 million dollars in March 2023, amid seasonal effects.

The trade deficit expanded to 583 million US dollars in April from 412 million US dollars in March 2023. Imports were at 1431 million US dollars in April from 1,450 million dollars in March.

Imports can pick as tourism, worker remittances and net inflows to government go up.

The rupee continued to appreciate.

“Exchange rate showed a notable appreciation during April 2023 with the continued improvement in liquidity in the domestic foreign exchange market, the discontinuation of the daily guidance on exchange rates,” the central bank said.

Up to April exports were down 9 percent to 3.8 billion rupees and imports were down 28 percent to 5.2 billion rupees and the trade deficit was 1.4 billion rupees.

Investment goods imports were down in April amid a contraction in credit.

“Almost all types of goods listed under the three main investment good categories, namely machinery and equipment, building material and transport equipment, recorded a decline,” the central bank said.

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Sri Lanka President discusses debt restructure, program progress with IMF

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe has discussed progress of International Monetary Fund program and debt restructuring during a visit of Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura, statement said.

“The discussion primarily focused on the progress of the IMF program between Sri Lanka and the IMF,” a statement from President’s office said.

“Attention was also paid to the on-going debt restructuring negotiations.”

State Minister of Finance Shehan Semasinghe, Senior Advisor to the President on National Security and Chief of Presidential Staff Sagala Ratnayake was also in the meeting.

Secretary of the Ministry of Finance Mahinda Siriwardena, Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe, Deputy Director of the International Monetary Fund Anne Marie Gulde, and Resident Representative IMF in Sri Lanka Sarwat Jahan, attended this event. (Colombo/June01/2023)

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