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Thursday September 21st, 2023

Sri Lanka banks facing challenges in current crisis as bad loans spike: Central Bank

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s banks are facing higher bad loans as interest rates rise and the economy contracts the central bank said as the country in the those of the worst currency crisis in the history of the intermediate regime monetary authority.

Stage 3 bad loan had reached 10.6 percent of loans, while banks were also hit by mark to market losses and possible re-structuring losses.

Sri Lanka’s rupee collapsed from 200 to 360 to the US dollar in 2022 after two years of money printing blew the balance of payments apart and interest rates shot up to 30 percent and the economy is expected to contract more than 8 percent this year.

“The financial sector is likely to encounter significant challenges in the face of the current economic environment with the contraction in economic output, sovereign debt restructuring, high interest rate environment, tax revisions and high exposure of the banking sector to SOBEs,” the central bank said in a report issued before the budget.

“At present, an increasing trend in impaired loans is observed due to the present adverse macroeconomic circumstances and is expected to further increase in view of contemporary weak economic conditions despite the concessions granted to borrowers by the industry to confront the challenges.”

Sri Lanka has been hit by serial currency crises in 2015/16, 2018 and 2020/2022 under flexible inflation targeting where discretion is given to print money under an inflation target as high as 6 percent through multiple liquidity tools.

Each crisis is accompanied by an output shock and a spike in bad loans. The 2022 crisis was followed by sovereign default and there are concerns of domestic debt restructuring. The 2022 crisis came on top of a Coronavirus crisis.

The central bank had a plan to progressively build capital buffers and they were still above statutory minimum by August 2022. An end 2022 capital requirement had been deferred till 2023.

Now bad loans were rising fast.

“Asset quality of the sector deteriorated in terms of stage 3 loans to total loans ratio. Stage 3 loans increased by Rs. 475.1 billion, recording a growth of 56.9 % and reached Rs. 1.3 trillion as at end August 2022,” the central bank said.

“Furthermore, stage 3 loans to total loans ratio increased to 10.6 % by end August 2022 from 7.6 % as at end 2021 induced by the increase in stage 3 loans and lower growth in credit.

“…[B]anking sector stability may be threatened by rising challenges in maintaining its capital ratios above regulatory minimum levels and a substantial deterioration in capital buffers due to
the impact of adverse macroeconomic conditions.”

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Sri Lanka government to develop Arugam Bay tourism sector

ECONOMYNEXT – The Arugam Bay Tourism Development Plan, which focuses on challenges to infrastructure development in the area and obstacles hindering the growth of the tourism sector, was discussed by government officials and key stakeholders yesterday (20).

Participants from heads of relevant organizations, the Police and district officers met at the Presidential Secretariat to discuss how each institution could contribute to finding solutions to these challenges, the president’s media division said in a statement.

The main tourism plan for Arugam Bay, prepared by the Urban Development Authority (UDA) was presented by chief of presidential staff, Sagala Rathnayaka.

904,318 tourists visited Sri Lanka from January to August 2023, an increase from the 719,978 tourists that arrived in the country during the whole of 2022, statistics provided by the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority show.
“A tourist will spend an average of 185 -195 dollars a day,” Sri Lanka Tourism Development Chairman, Priyantha Fernando, told EconomyNext.

Sri Lanka’s government aims to attract five million tourists a year, and has mooted the establishment of an Investment Infrastructure Corporation, a decision-making council and regional committees under provincial tourism boards. (Colombo/Sep21/2023)

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Sri Lanka gets 19.23 mn US dollar grant from USA

ECONOMYNEXT – The United States yesterday (20) announced the commitment of more than 19 million US dollars in additional funds to further the development of Sri Lanka.

The 19.23 million US dollar (6.2 billion rupees) is obligated through the Development Objective Grant Agreement between the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Sri Lanka government.

“This development assistance will support economic growth and democratic governance activities and demonstrates the ongoing US commitment to its partnership with Sri Lanka and in building lasting people-to-people ties,” a statement by the Embassy of the United States of America read.

“This investment demonstrates the United States’ ongoing commitment to our partnership with Sri Lanka and our steadfast support to the people of this stunning, opportunity-filled country, as USAID Administrator Samantha Power and President Wickremesinghe discussed in New York,” said Gabriel Grau, USAID Sri Lanka and Maldives Mission Director.

“With these funds we’ll continue to work with the government of Sri Lanka to improve economic growth and democratic governance and advocate for vulnerable populations.”

USAID is an independent agency of the United States government responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance.

The United States has provided more than 2 billion US dollars (nearly 720 billion rupees) in assistance to Sri Lanka since 1956. (Colombo/Sep21/2023)

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Sri Lanka’s 2022 EPF returns falls to lowest, single digit in near two decades – CB data

ECONOMYNEXT – The 2022 annual average return on Sri Lanka’s largest contributory pension scheme, the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF), has fallen to its lowest in nearly two decades, Central Bank data showed.

The annual average return in the last year fell to 9.52 percent from the previous year’s 11.40 percent, a central bank response to a Right to Information (RTI) request showed.

Returns on EPF has raised concerns among contributors after the government decided to include EPF investments in the government treasury bonds under the domestic debt optimization (DDO) process.

Last year’s lower return has been recorded despite market interest rates being more than 30 percent towards the end of the year. In contrast, the fund has given a double digit return in 2020 when the market interest rates hovered in single digits.

Analysts have predicted the returns to be further low with the central bank opting for the government’s DDO option.

A central bank analysis on DDO showed the return on EPF could fall to as low as 6.79 percent if the DDO option was not chosen within the next 12 years as against 8.02 percent if opted for DDO.

Trade unions and some politically motivated fractions opposed the government move to include the EPF investments under the DDO. However, parliament approved the move early this month.

According to the data made available from 2005, the central bank, which is the custodian of the EPF, has given the highest return of 16.03 percent in 2009.

The island nation’s largest pension fund has almost 21-million member accounts including 18.3 million non-contributing accounts due to some members having multiple number of accounts.

The 3.38 trillion-rupee ($10.6 billion) worth fund as of end 2022 is managed by the central bank, including its investment decisions.

As of end 2022, the central bank has invested 3.23 trillion rupees or 95.7 percent of the total EPF in government securities, while 84.1 billion rupees has been invested in listed companies in the Colombo Stock Exchange, the central bank said quoting the EPF audited financial statement. (Colombo/September 21/2023)

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