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Friday February 23rd, 2024

Sri Lanka can trigger food shortages as in medicines with new trade controls: Bellwether

TRADE BLOCK: Sri Lanka’s import trade was progressively hit due to forex shortages from money printing and surrender rules. What other countries experience after default was experienced by Sri Lanka before.

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka has no food shortages at the moment except milk which are imported by a few large companies, but drugs and medical items are facing deadly shortages after the central bank created dollar shortages with money printing.

Sri Lanka is estimated to import around 200 million US dollars of foods a month including onions, potatoes, sprats, lentils and cereals and some types of rice from time to time.

Sri Lanka’s drug shortages are primarily created by the National Medical Regulatory Authority ,a deadly price control agency created by the ousted Yahapalana administration along with the central bank which is running the flexible exchange rate.

When the NMRA imposes price controls importers cannot sell at the current costs with the central bank depreciating the currency with money printing and a surrender rule. Therefore there are shortages.

They also cannot open Letters of Credit at banks due to dollar shortages created by money printing and the surrender rule.

The easiest way to create food shortages is to clampdown on the Undiyal/Hawala markets, open account food imports and force Pettah traders to open LCs or set Customs authorities on food importers who do not fully settle bills through official channels.

The Consumer Affairs Authority can also contribute to food shortages with price controls.

Starting NMRA without ending flexible inflation cum output gap targeting

This column warned as far back as 2015 when the then Monetary Board was printing money claiming inflation was low as commodity prices collapsed that restraining by law the central bank’s flexible policy was the answer not the NMRA. (Sri Lanka’s pharma control Neros fiddling while Colombo burns with falling rupee)

In 2018 when the outcome of the flexible inflation targeting cum output gap targeting gap become clearer, pointed out that Sri Lanka was not Greece where the currency was stable but a Latin America style central bank where the rupee collapses very steeply hitting consumer prices.

Flexible exchange rates or soft-pegs are the most dangerous monetary regime ever cooked up by economists or mercantilists.

This is what the column said at the time in (Sri Lanka is not Greece, it is a Latin America style soft-peg: Bellwether)

“Under Euro a local company can still repay foreign loans. They can also borrow domestically or use their bank deposits to repay foreign loans. There is no problem with importing goods as the Euro is accepted abroad.

“The prices of fuel or electricity did not go up steeply. They were same as any stable country in the Euro area like Germany or France. As there was no explosion in inflation the value of bank deposits were intact. While there is sovereign default and possible hair cuts on state debt there is no private default or haircut.

“But a falling currency imposes a hair cut on all state and private debt including bank deposits in solvent banks. Pensions are made worthless hitting old people the hardest.

“A collapsing soft-pegged currency will put all citizens other than the very rich, in severe difficulties unlike a strong floating exchange rate like the Euro.

Three sins and a currency collapse

“In a soft-pegged monetary regime like in Sri Lanka, the currency continues to fall each time the central bank intervenes in forex markets and then prints money to keep interest rates down.

“As long as the currency is not floated, there is no end in sight for exchange rate depreciation, especially if interest rates are not raised and credit does not slow. What usually happens in Sri Lanka and other soft-pegs is that in the end rates have to be hiked and the currency floated. This is the phenomenon been referred to as ‘rawulath ne kendeth ne’ in this column.

“In Latin America – unlike Greece – when the currency falls steeply, prices go up, and people ‘s living standards melt as most of the money goes to food and medicines. This makes the many businesses fail as demand collapses.

“Then banks have bad loans and suffer losses.

“Unlike in Greece, the government of a soft-pegged country cannot raise money from domestic markets and repay foreign loans even at prohibitive interest rates. The government may default. Downgrades will compound the problem, pushing interest rates up.

“As prices move up with currency depreciation the value of bank deposits evaporates. If the currency falls by 50 percent, local companies will now have to borrow more to repay foreign loans, making massive holes in their balance sheets even if forex was available to buy.

“If exchange controls come, there will be no dollars to buy with the domestic money they have borrowed.
“It is not possible to import goods freely when a soft-peg collapses because there will be forex shortages due to sterilized intervention. Import controls may also come.

“As the cost of fuel or electricity goes up (oil prices are now falling and there is rain in Sri Lanka) if prices are not raised, more money will be printed to subsidize energy, pushing the currency down.
“In Latin America, energy price controls have led to money printing and rationing. There can be power cuts and fuel shortages.

“In Sri Lanka because of price controls of the National Medicines Regulatory Authority medicines, drugs can go off the shelves.

“In Latin American soft-pegs many price controls were imposed. Instantly goods go off the shelves and black markets appear.

“With import controls more businesses will fail. People will be laid off as revenues fall. Banks will make more losses. Rates will rise eventually. More businesses can fail.

“If this situation continues for several months, there may be runs on banks. If money is printed to bail them out, the currency falls even more. This phenomenon was seen in many Latin American soft-pegs and also Indonesia during the East Asian crisis.

“Debt to GDP will explode until inflation catches up. The share of foreign debt will also increase. This is what happens in Latin America. It is not Greece.

Monetary Meltdown

In 2021 when bad central bank policy continued this column warned that if a float was botched running out of reserves due to ‘fear of floating’ that is found in flexible exchange rate central banks, default and a meltdown was likely.

Soft-peggers do not float in one go but tries to adjust the currency little by little. However it can backfire. The IMF also advised the central bank to adjust little by little. It was done. Two months after the float the rupee is still adjusting little by little.

This column warned against this type of half-hearted floating and half-hearted bond auctions. It is extremely disappointing to this columnist to see these warnings coming true.

This column has said in the past that dire warnings are made in the hope that the central bank’s usually flexible policies would be abandoned.

This is what was said in August 2021 when the central bank continued with trying to target an output gap with the peg already broken in (Sri Lanka’s monetary meltdown will accelerate unless quick action is taken: Bellwether)

“The central bank itself is likely to be insolvent on its dollar liabilities before the end of the year unless money printing is halted.

“However any kind of half-hearted Treasury bill and bond auctions, partially failed bond or bill auctions with some volumes of printed money will lead to progressively higher interest rates but the reserve losses and currency depreciation will continue.

“Soft-peggers are not good at floating. Partial interventions (flexible exchange rate) will lead to even higher interest rates and more losses of confidence.

“In Argentina, short term rates went up to 60 percent due to the ‘flexible exchange rate’ (which is neither floating nor pegged) that had caused so much damage to Sri Lanka since 2015 coupled with an unsterilized disorderly market conditions (DMC) rule, which also lacks credibility.

“The high interest rates can kill many businesses. The high rates from partial floating can kill finance companies and banks.

“When dying banks are bailed out with printed money, it is generally even more difficult to control the exchange rate.

“Inflation and cash shortages will lead to a consumption collapse which will also destroy businesses. Low reserves will lead to a default on foreign debt as happened to the Weimar Republic.

CAA, NMRA a big threat

“When the rupee starts to fall, the price controls will come. The Consumer Affairs Authority (CAA) had already stopped Laugfs Gas.

“It will impose many more price controls. Many more shortages will occur. It will be a big threat to the ordinary people. People will be branded ‘black marketers’.

“The money printers are already getting ready to hike the fine on those who break price controls by 100 times.

“The National Medicinal Drugs Authority (NMRA) could be an even bigger threat. NMRA price controls will make it impossible for drug importers to operate. There may be shortages of some types of medicines.

“The import substitution firms, also called ‘cronies’ will manage.

“It is even possible that oil imports will have to be curtailed, if more money is printed to pay state “workers and meet other expenses.

“What happens to soft-pegs countries is that eventually the currency is floated when it becomes apparent to the Keynesians driving policy, that there is no way to rebuild reserves. When the rupee is floated price controls may again cause havoc.

Avoiding Worst Case Scenario – Monetary Meltdown

“So what is the worst case scenario?

“The worst case scenario is that the nothing will be done and the central bank will continue to print money to keep the ceiling yield on Treasury bill yields.

“Whatever Keynesian or post – Keynesian economists, have been taught at university, reality always hits eventually. Keynesian models are fine in theory, but they do not exist in the real world. The Hicks-Hansen model (IS-LM) was dismissed by Hicks himself later.

“The central bank itself is likely to be insolvent on its dollar liabilities before the end of the year unless money printing is halted.

“However any kind of half-hearted Treasury bill and bond auctions, partially failed bond or bill auctions with some volumes of printed money will lead to progressively higher interest rates but the reserve losses and currency depreciation will continue.

“Soft-peggers are not good at floating. Partial interventions (flexible exchange rate) will lead to even higher interest rates and more losses of confidence.

“In Argentina, short term rates went up to 60 percent due to the ‘flexible exchange rate’ (which is neither floating nor pegged) that had caused so much damage to Sri Lanka since 2015 coupled with an unsterilized disorderly market conditions (DMC) rule, which also lacks credibility.

“The high interest rates can kill many businesses.

“The high rates from partial floating can kill finance companies and banks. When dying banks are bailed out with printed money, it is generally even more difficult to control the exchange rate.

“Inflation and cash shortages will lead to a consumption collapse which will also destroy businesses. Low reserves will lead to a default on foreign debt as happened to the Weimar Republic.

Food Heroes

When a country defaults trade takes a big hit because foreign suppliers refused to accept Letters of Credit. But in Sri Lanka’s case this happened in incremental steps from around late 2020 when the country was downgraded to CCC.

First some suppliers stopped accepting LCs of local banks which were not counter signed by an international bank. Suppliers need LCs to get packing credit. Then banks in Japan and Western countries stopped counter signing them. For a while Indian banks did it at a high premium.

The Indian banks also stopped counter signing. They also stopped giving supplier credit against Sri Lanka LCs.

Then as the central bank tightened controls, surrender rules and so on, without halting money printing banks stopped giving LCs because they could not find dollars to settle them on time.

However Sri Lanka’s Pettah traders, like a mother hen feeding her chicks under the greatest challenges continued to import food using traditional relationships, sometimes running back several generations, with suppliers sending goods on open papers.

Farmers are also doing it despite the lack of fertilizer. Some fertilizer is smuggled from India to feed the people (boat urea).

Suppliers in South Asia and Dubai are familiar with Undiya/Hawala and are willing to trust personal relationships more than LCs. Their word is their bond.

Food importers will tell that banks only give small amounts of money. They have in fact cleared most of the containers in the port.

That is why there is food. Through the Undiyal/Hawala system they get priority. And they can get a dollar at 20 rupees higher and feed the nation while banks have to listen to various dictates of authorities and powerful suppliers including in building materials.

The Undiyal/Hawala system is not a threat to anyone. It does not create new money and drive up excess liquidity of the good banks, unlike the surrender rule of the ‘official channels’.

It does not reduce the rupee reserves of state banks in particular and lead to printed money borrowing from the SLF window unlike the ‘official channel’.

It is a harmless net settlement system where the currency floats without altering reserve money. It is feeding a nation using proceeds of remittances.

What should be done is not to force food importers to use LCs, but to fix the broken peg (rates have already been raised which will reduce domestic credit and investments and imports in a step in the right direction) or have a clean float so that imports can be done freely.

Forcing food importers to use LCs can create food shortages. Setting the CAA hounds after the food heroes will also create shortages.

The country’s economic problems can only be solved by ending the intermediate regime soft-peg (now called a flexible exchange rate) and going for a single anchor system which will bring stability by ending discretionary policy of the central bank to manipulate interest rates.

Stability may not be everything, as classical economists say, but without stability everything is nothing. (Colombo/Apr29/2022)

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Sri Lanka’s Grisly Recent History Goes Unpunished

ECONOMYNEXT – They lie buried in numerous mass graves, all evidence of Sri Lanka’s murderous recent past which has been punctuated by multiple civil conflicts.

Whatever remains is evidence of Sri Lanka’s grisly history of the extrajudicial executions of rebels in both Northern and Southern insurrections.

Most of the bodies remain in mass graves that stretch from Chemmani and Duraiappah Stadium in  Jaffna to burial sites in the Colombo and Matale Districts and the Southern and Central Provinces.

The dead could be anyone; captured rebels, those caught in crossfires and others who were deemed to be “inconvenient,” according to a report titled ‘Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s War Time Role’ released by the International Truth and Justice Project (ITJP) on 17 January 2024.

A horrific record

Sri Lanka’s recent blood-soaked history is replete with mass killings and many “disappearances” from the various incidents during the insurgencies of the JVP as well as the Tamil separatist war.

The activist group Journalists for Democracy and affiliated organisations claim that at least 32 mass graves have been identified across the island. A report published in Groundviews in January said these graves “dotted across the country that hold the remains of not just the casualties of the civil war but also those who disappeared during the two JVP uprisings in 1971 and from 1988 to 1989.”

A 1999 United Nations study noted that Sri Lanka has the second-highest number of enforced disappearances in the world with around 12,000 people missing after being detained by government Security Forces. Figures vary with Amnesty International reporting that the number of disappeared persons could be as high as 60,000.

There is no official government figure.

Evidence against GR

Now, fifteen years after the separatist war in Sri Lanka ended, mounting evidence has emerged against former President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, for his pivotal role in the commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity during the civil war, say Human Rights lawyers in this new report.

Rajapaksa figures in two serious passages of time where suspected cadres of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna were killed at Matale in the 1988-89 period and LTTE cadres and civilians on the frontlines of Nandikadal which proved to be the final battle of the Eelam War.

The ITJP report quotes its Executive Director Yasmin Sooka as saying if Sri Lanka “is serious about dealing with its violent past, the litmus test is to hold (former President) Gotabaya Rajapaksa criminally accountable for war crimes and crimes against humanity.”

The report presents detailed evidence connecting the former President when he was Secretary to the Ministry of Defence to numerous massacres of civilians. Although not the army commander, nor Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gotabaya had command and effective control of the security forces during the Civil War as the Defence Secretary and the younger brother of then President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

The ITJP report says the then Defence Secretary Rajapaksa had “contemporaneous knowledge of the violations of international humanitarian law and international criminal law being committed, and failed to take any steps to prevent them, or to hold those under his command accountable. He and successive Sri Lankan governments have had countless opportunities since the war ended to initiate credible investigations into allegations of gross human rights violations and to establish prosecutions. Instead of allowing the truth to come to light, Gotabaya and his successors have perpetuated denial of the complicity of the security forces in these violations, rewarding and protecting the alleged perpetrators.”

The 104-page document examines evidence of Rajapaksa’s involvement in and knowledge of attacks on the No Fire Zones set up to protect civilians, his failure to prevent and investigate summary executions, enforced disappearances, torture, rape and sexual violence, arbitrary detention and the denial of humanitarian aid to civilians.

Individual stories that were leaked at the time gave credence to these incidents.

One was the evidence of the killing of LTTE Leader Velupillai Prabhakaran’s younger son Balachandran. The boy, according to some reports, had been escorted to the Sri Lanka Army lines by an LTTE bodyguard at Mullivaikkal. Photos purported to have been taken at that stage show the boy wrapped in a Sri Lanka Army issue sarong eating a biscuit behind the Sri Lanka Army lines. A second photo shows him dead at the same location, his body riddled with bullets.

Another set of pictures was that of the LTTE’s TV icon Issapriya whose image was widely circulated. There were unconfirmed reports that she had been sexually assaulted along with other young women who had been captured as the LTTE unravelled. That is followed by another picture of her corpse shot at close range.

Eventually, the Sri Lankan government during President Maithripala Sirisena’s tenure acknowledged that some 65,000 persons were missing and granted close surviving relatives rights to manage their properties, the ITJP report states.

Matale Mass Grave

Rajapaksa was the military Coordinating Officer for the Matale District in 1989 when the area was rocked by the so-called Deshapremi Janatha Vyaparaya a JVP offshoot. He was a Lt. Colonel at the time.

In December 2012, reports emerged that a mass grave had been found in the grounds of the Matale Hospital.

Accusations were made at the time that the remains unearthed were that of JVP cadres who had been captured and allegedly killed during the insurrection, a claim the party repeatedly made.

No government however pursued an investigation into the discovery because politics got in the way; after all the UNP was in power when the killings were supposedly carried out and the officer responsible, Gotabaya, was the brother of Mahinda Rajapaksa at the time, a prominent leader in the SLFP.

The government of the day meanwhile claimed the bodies were of victims of a landslide in the 1950s.

However, there was no proper investigation to prove which theory was factual.

The ITJP report also contains the names of former Army Commander, Lt Gen Shavendra Silva and others who are seen as Gotabaya loyalists in the Army.  The report also claims that Army top brass, other than Field Marshall Sarath Fonseka, who was Commander of the Army at the time the civil war ended, had close personal connections to Rajapaksa.

These incidents, however, are not the only horrific events of our island nation’s history; abductions and disappearances of young men, allegedly by members of the armed forces, the massacre of a group of Buddhist monks at Aranthalawa, the killing of pilgrims at Anuradhapura, the latter two by the LTTE, random killings of public servants and others by rebel groups, and more recently the Easter Sunday bombings, the list goes on. And the powers that be, govern with impunity.

So, it is unlikely that the relatives of the victims will find closure until justice is served and those whose hands are bloodstained are held accountable for their actions.

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India has given “lot of offers” for Ramayana Trail, Sri Lanka state minister says

ECONOMYNEXT – India has given a lot of offers to establish Ramayana Trails in Sri Lanka, State Tourism Minister Diana Gamage said, as the island nation is focusing more on Indian tourists to boost the hospitality industry.

Historians say, according to Hindu mythology, Sri Lanka was the kingdom of Ravana, the ten-headed demon king who abducted Sita, the wife of Rama, the hero of the Ramayana, a smriti text from ancient India, one of the two important epics of Hinduism known as the Itihasas, the other being the Mahabharata.

The epic narrates the life of Rama, a prince of Ayodhya in the kingdom of Kosala.

With the opening of Ram Mandhir in Ayodhya, Sri Lanka has renewed the establishment of Ramayana Trails, which includes all the places believed to be associated with Ramayana.

The places include Sigiriya, Ashok Vatika, a garden in the city of Nuwara Eliya, which is believed to be the place where Ravana kept Sita captive, Ravana Ella Falls, Koneswaram Temple in Trincomalee and Divurumpola Temple in Bandarawela which is believed to be the place where Sita underwent a trial by fire to prove her purity among many other places.

“I think India is even willing to invest in it. They have given proposals that they are willing to invest in it. They will build hotels even around where they can have accommodation for the people who are visiting these areas,” Diana Gamage told reporters in Colombo.

“They (Indians) have given a lot of offers. If we do this in the right way, we can bring 5 million tourists from India alone.”

Indians topped the list of tourists to Sri Lanka last year with over 300,000 visitors.

“At the moment I am having discussions with some of them, and they are in touch with me,” Gamage said.

“If you look at Seetha Eliya, Seetha Temple is one of the main areas in this Trail. So that area also will be developed, specially.”

“I don’t know if you have seen how many millions visited the Ayodhya temple. There are so many millions from around the world. So, there is an interest in this and we have to grab that opportunity being in the country that it actually has taken place.”

“It is so unfortunate that why it has not been done so far. This should have been done a long long time ago. So now I am thinking that we should do it at least now.” (Colombo/Feb 22/2024)

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Sri Lanka offers fresh debt plan to bondholders amid Hamilton case extension hopes: Sources

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka offered a revised restructuring proposal to sovereign bond holders sources said, as the country tries to wrap up debt restructuring by the middle of the year and a holdout investor sues to force payment on one series of bonds.

A US court had stayed proceedings of case by holdout investor Hamilton Reserve for six months, which has the required volumes of bond with a ‘single series’ collective action clause to file action following request which was supported by the US, UK and France.

The deadline runs out on February 29.

An extension of at least three months may be sought to help wrap up the debt restructuring, sources said.

Sri Lanka is expecting to sign memoranda of understanding with Paris Club, within weeks, according to official sources.

Courts had earlier granted the stay saying Hamilton had the option of renewing case for summary judgement once it is lifted.

Sri Lanka rejected a proposal by bondholders to exchange a ‘downside’ bond linked to gross domestic product which will have a 20 percent hair cut with additional haircuts if GDP growth is low as forecasted by the International Monetary Fund.

Bondholders believe that the growth projections in an IMF debt sustainable analysis is too pessimistic

However bondholders are very keen on the structure, and it may be tough to convince them to accept a ‘plain vanilla’ type of solution, according to sources familiar with their thinking.

Bondholders also do not want a value recovery instrument detached from the underlying bond which is not ‘index eligible’. Earlier VRI’s used in debt re-structures have been upside instruments.

Bondholders had earlier expressed their unhappiness at what they said was “no progress” in negotiations.

Some bondholders were also of the view that the first ask by Sri Lanka from bondholders was deeper than the in-principle re-structure given by bilateral creditors. (Colombo/Feb22/2024)

A US court had stayed proceedings of case by holdout investor Hamilton Reserve for six months, which has the required volumes of bond with a ‘single series’ collective action clause to file action following a request from the US government among others.

The deadline runs out at the end of the month.

An extension of at least three months may be sought to help wrap up the bond restructuring, sources said. It is not clear whether courts will grant the extension.

Sri Lanka rejected a proposal by bondholders to exchange a ‘downside’ bond linked to gross domestic product which will have a 20 percent hair cut with additional haircuts if GDP growth is low as forecasted by the International Monetary Fund.

Bondholders believe that the growth projections in an IMF debt sustainable analysis is too pessimistic

However bondholders are very keen on the structure, and it may be tough to convince them to accept a ‘plain vanilla’ type of solution, according to sources familiar with their thinking.

Bondholders also do not want a value recovery instrument detached from the underlying bond which is not ‘index eligible’. Earlier VRI’s used in debt re-structures have been upside instruments.

Bondholders had earlier expressed their unhappiness at what they said was “no progress” in negotiations.

Some bondholders were also of the view that the first ask by Sri Lanka from bondholders was deeper than the in-principle re-structure given by bilateral creditors. (Colombo/Feb22/2024)

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