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Sunday June 16th, 2024

Sri Lanka central bank caught between peg and hard place

UNUSUAL : Reserve money is shrinking despite a statistical domestic asset expansion with no actual liquidity and no loss of foreign reserves.

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s central bank has been aggressively injecting liquidity on a longer term in the past weeks reducing liquidity shortages in the banking system, which if overdone could lead to forex shortages and instability again.

The central bank has injected 340 billion rupees through term injections – largely replacing lending window operations from January 09 and overnight injections began on January 17.

While liquidity shortages beyond a certain point has no value, care should be taken to ensure that excess liquidity conditions do not re-emerge.

A liquidity shortage emerges in Sri Lanka’s banking system because a pegged regime is operated, despite whatever claims to the contrary.

In past currency crises, almost all the liquidity shortages from dollar sales (losses of foreign reserves) made to defend a peg were filled permanently to maintain an artificially low policy rate.

Currency crises and balance of payments deficits do not come from defending pegs as claimed by post 1935 academics and economic bureaucrats, but from money printed through open market operations to mis-target rates and maintain an artificially low policy rate after intervening.

Fictitious Capital

In this currency crisis, the worst created in the history of the central bank of Sri Lanka, large volumes of liquidity were only filled overnight. This is better than filling permanently, as it may prevent banks from giving credit due to asset liability mis-matches.

The liquidity injections allow banks to lend without deposits and trigger forex shortages, expand the external current account deficit – unless they were used to buy assets from fleeing foreign investors and more forex losses.

Classical economists have called such injections ‘fictitious capital’ in a pegged regime.

However US academics (led by Mercantilists like John H Williams) and economic bureaucrats who built the Bretton Woods and the International Monetary Fund, thought it was possible to do so as their knowledge of classical theory seemed to have been weak, and instead used statistics to claim that it was possible.

That it was not possible was proved with the collapse of the Bretton Woods. But third world countries – outside of East Asia and GCC – continue to believe that it is possible, with disastrous consequences and never-ending trips to the IMF.

A third world country is necessarily pegged. No single anchor regime country will remain poor for long.

In past currency crises, foreign reserves losses (losses of NFA) were filled permanent purchases of Treasury securities, so large liquidity shortages running into hundreds of billions of rupees were not seen.

New Sources of Liquidity Shortages

Outside of the net foreign assets losses, in this currency crisis, due to downgrades of credit, foreign banks parked large volumes of cash in the central bank instead of lending in the overnight market in a private sterilization style activity. (Sri Lanka injects Rs130bn outright amid high private sector sterilization)

As a result, a few foreign banks ended up with over 300 billion rupees of excess cash.

This is similar to people withdrawing cash from the banking system and burying them in proverbial coffee tins in their backyard as reportedly happened in the US during the Great Depression.

A third reason for expanding liquidity shortages was the roll-over of central bank held Treasury bills (zero coupon bonds) with interest.

As a result, Sri Lanka’s net credit to government went up, without any changes in net foreign assets – since the central bank has run out of reserves – while reserve money or at least notes in circulation fell.

Loosening Monetary Policy

Over the past few weeks, the central bank started injecting liquidity (printing money) on a longer term basis reducing the overnight shortages.

In addition, the central bank also stopped banks with excess cash from depositing money in the repo window at 14.50 percent, encouraging them to lend in the overnight market or buy Treasury bills. (Sri Lanka central bank to limit access to policy rate windows)

This has started to happen and Treasury bill yield are coming down.

Any of foreign bank money, or newly injected money that is used to buy Treasury bills will end up in state banks.

The central bank should maintain a liquidity short to absorb any liquidity that foreign banks use up to buy Treasury bills.

The central bank was blamed by many for the current high rates.

Though it is true that country’s chronically high rates – and the high rates of all third world soft-pegged countries – are due to monetary instability coming from the central bank’s mis-management of a soft-pegged exchange rate regime, in this currency crises the threat of a domestic debt re-structuring has also contributed.

This column has warned for many years that the central bank cannot inject liquidity to suppress rates when private credit picks up and maintain the peg. Each time it is done, forex shortages emerge and the corrective rates are higher than if the rates were allowed to go up a little naturally to balance domestic credit and savings.

After months of injections, the rupee then collapses and rates go up steeply. This has happened repeatedly and has worsened under flexible inflation targeting. A floating exchange rate regime is needed for any type of inflation targeting (to operate a domestic anchor based monetary regime the external anchor has to be abandoned).

In this context caution should be exercised in the current liquidity injections.

A Fragile but so far Consistent Peg

Sri Lanka is maintaining a peg at 360 to the US dollar without any reserves at the moment. It is done by a surrender rule where forced sales are made at around that price to the central bank, injecting liquidity and selling the same dollars back to banks.

Depending to the spread, this activity can also lead to liquidity shortages. In fact, the Bank of Thailand many decades ago re-built foreign reserves devastated by Japanese driven money printing during World War II, through such a strategy.

This column has in the past advocated floating the exchange rate and re-pegging, to re-establish the credibility of the peg. Before any float the surrender rule should be removed.

Exporters are still not selling forward, indicating that there is no market credibility for the 360 peg, though the central bank has operated monetary policy consistent with such a regime through liquidity shortages and negative private credit through higher rates.

Risks Remain

Until the credibility of the peg is fully restored, some overnight liquidity shortages should to be maintained, especially at state banks, for the following reasons, despite private credit being negative.

a) The Treasury has warned that it may still require printed money. Overnight liquidity short should be large enough to absorb any such injections.

b) The first quarter of any year is where a drought comes and electricity sector losses are financed with credit. This column in early 2021 that rates be hiked and the currency floated before the drought. (Sri Lanka has to hike rates, tourism recovery will not help end forex crisis: Bellwether)

c) The shift of private sterilized money from foreign banks to state bank DST accounts should be absorbed as mentioned before.

This is because any of the new liquidity injections, and the privately sterilized money shifting from foreign banks to state or other banks can create forex shortages if loaned to the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation or Ceylon Electricity Board, to import fuel.

Though private credit is negative and the risks of foreign shortages, re-emerging are reduced, credit given to state energy utilities hit the forex market direct.

It is also not clear whether there will be any central bank profit transfers this year. In 2022 NFA was negative, but there are profits from domestic assets which if transferred as printed money can create forex shortages as they are used by the recipients.

That is why this column has advocated in the past that profit transfers be made in US dollars in the first instance and be done with it.

Sri Lanka has not yet got the IMF program, therefore confidence is low and any excess liquidity can undermine the very fragile peg.

Though there has been net excess liquidity in the market for a few days, some banks were still short by 132 billion rupees.

Peg and a Hard Place

The central bank is caught between a peg and hard a place, with a clamour by businesses to bring down rates.

In past crises, rates have started to come down from about two to three months after the currency is successfully floated, private credit turns negative and budget deficits begin to narrow .

But there has been no successful float to create credibility of the exchange rate in the market, the IMF deal and the attendant inflows that accompany it are yet to come.

Therefore, despite private credit being negative, due to problems in the CEB in particular and generally the budget, caution has to be exercise in liquidity injections and it will be a prudent strategy to maintain a short overall of at least 50 billion rupees.

After the IMF program comes, or even before that if there is a successful float and re-pegging, the central bank should consider abandoning the floor repo rate.

Many East Asian central banks do that and it helps economies recover faster.

The recent blocking of access to the repo window is a similar strategy, but is fraught some risks at the moment because the new liquidity is not coming from an acquisition of foreign assets but from domestic assets.

The central bank could also consider rolling over Treasuries at par through a legal change until they are sold down to re-build reserves after the IMF program comes. This will reduce the government interest bill and eliminate any risks from a single day profit transfer.

Having said that IMF programs are no solution to a trigger-happy pegged bank that injects liquidity through open market operations.

The State Bank of Pakistan is melting now within an IMF program. Sri Lanka had currency problems in both 2011 and 2018 within IMF programs which were temporarily suspended as liquidity injections were made amid high domestic credit which led to missed foreign reserve targets.

Liquidity shortages lose their value beyond a certain point, so the recent injections may not be harmful.

However care should be taken never to go to back to excess liquidity conditions except through net foreign asset acquisitions.

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Sri Lanka state airport agency swimming in cash after sovereign default

ECONOMYNEXT – State-run Airport and Aviation Services (Sri Lanka) Ltd is swimming in cash after a sovereign default halted debt repayments allowing it to post a profit of 29.7 billion rupees with 10.4 billion rupees in interest income, official data showed.

In April 2022 Sri Lanka declared a sovereign default after printing large volumes of money over more than two years to enforce rate cuts and blowing the biggest hole in the balance of payments in the history of the island’s money printing central bank.

Interest earnings of Airport and Aviation Services also shot up to 10.4 billion rupees in 2023 from 6.1 billion in 2022 and 3.3 billion rupees in 2021 before the sovereign default.

Under the terms of the default or ‘debt suspension’, state agencies like the Airport and Aviation Services, and Sri Lanka Port Authority were also not required to service loans, even if they had the cash to repay loans.

AASL’s finance income shot up in 2023 “mainly because the company has invested surplus cash saved by not servicing the foreign loans obtained by the company due to the temporary debt moratorium policy of the country,” the Finance Ministry said in a report.

Sri Lanka’s rupee and foreign currency interest rates also shot up in 2022 and 2023 as rate cuts enforced by money printing were lifted to clear anchor conflicts.

After inflationary rate cuts kill confidence in a currency triggering capital flight and parallel exchange rates, excessively high rates are needed to kill domestic credit and stabilize the currency.

Countries with such flawed operating frameworks in central banks tend to have chronic high nominal interest rates in any case.

AASL’s rupee revenues went up to 48.8 billion rupees in 2023 from 32.2 billion rupees in 2022 as passenger movements increased to 7.5 million from 5.5 million with a recovery in tourism and local traffic.

Sri Lanka’s currency crisis hit in 2022 just as the island was recovering from Coronavirus pandemic triggering fuel shortages and power cuts as money printing triggered forex shortages.

From 2022 March the rupee collapsed from 200 to 370 levels an attempt to float the rupee was failed by a surrender rule (a type of buy-side pegging which pushes the exchange rate down).

In 2023, after hiking rates to kill credit, the surrender rule was removed, leading to a currency appreciation.

The airport agency also made an exchange gain of 6.1 billion rupees in 2023 against an exchange loss of 10.5 billion rupees in 2022 the rupee appreciated. (Colombo/June16/2024)

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Sri Lanka car import relaxing roadmap given to IMF: State Minister

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka has submitted a roadmap on relaxing vehicle imports to the International Monetary Fund, State Minister of Finance Ranjith Siymabalapitiya said as the country recovers from the worst currency crises in the history of its central bank.

The import relaxation will allow vehicles for public transport, goods transport, then motor cycles and cars use by private individuals and after that, luxury cars, Minister Siyambalapitiya said.

Luxury cars however attract the highest taxes for each dollar spent on imports.

Economic analysts have characterized vehicle import controls as a ‘cascading policy error’ that follows inflationary rate cuts, which then deprive taxes to the state and triggers more money printing and more forex shortages, requiring even higher corrective interest rates and a contraction of economic activities to save the rupee.

According to the latest IMF report car import controls may have led to revenue losses of 0.7 to 0.9 percent of GDP.

Sri Lanka started controlling imports few years after a central bank was set up in 1950 and also tightened exchange controls progressively, so that macroeconomists using post-1920 spurious monetary doctrines taught at Anglophone universities could print money through various mechanisms to suppress rates.

Sri Lanka is working with the IMF as a guide on many issues and the roadmap was submitted to the agency on June 14, Minister Siyambalapitiya said.

The IMF in an economic report released last week the plan was expected to be submitted by June 15.

Whatever the IMF’s faults, which some wags have called ‘progressive Saltwaterism’, the agency does not advocate import controls as solution to balance of payments problems, despite a Mercantilist fixation with the current account deficit in countries with reserve collecting central banks, analysts say.

Import controls have the same effect as import substation on the balance of payments, which is none, classical economists have pointed out and is now mainly a problem associated with macro economists and economic bureaucrats of so-called basket case countries.

Any pressure on the currency or missed reserves targets in the IMF program has come in the past only if the central bank printed money to suppress rates as credit growth picked up from car imports.

Sri Lanka had 3,000 items under import controls when rates were suppressed with printed money from 2020 to 2022 but eventually ended up with the worst currency crisis triggered by macro economists in the history of the country and eventual external default.

A committee made up of the Department of Trade and Fiscal Policy of the Finance Ministry, the Department of Registration of Motor Vehicles, the Central Bank and two associations representing vehicle imports were appointed to come up with the roadmap, he said. (Colombo/June15/2024)

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Chitrasiri Committee presents draft constitution for Sri Lanka Cricket

ECONOMYNEXT – A draft constitution for Sri Lanka Cricket, the governing body for cricket in the island, prepared by a committee headed by retired Supreme Court judge K T Chitrasiri, was presented to President Ranil Wickremesinghe today (15).

The Sri Lanka team were ignominiously knocked out of the Men’s T20 World Cup tournament this week, sparking renewed criticism of the team and the governing body.

Last November, a cabinet sub-committee was appointed to address challenges faced by Sri Lanka Cricket and provide recommendations after consecutive losses became a hot topic in parliament.

After parliament decided to remove the administrators of the sport, the International Cricket Council (ICC) Board suspended Sri Lanka Cricket’s membership.

Based on the sub-committee’s recommendations in its report, the Cabinet then appointed an expert committee to draft a new constitution for Sri Lanka Cricket.

The committee headed by judge K T Chitrasiri includes President’s Counsel Harsha Amarasekara, Attorney-at-Law Dr Aritha Wickramanayake and Chairman of the Sri Lanka Chamber of Commerce Duminda Hulangamuwa.

Deputy Solicitor General Manohara Jayasinghe, and Shamila Krishanthi, Assistant Draftsman representing the Legal Draftsman’s Department, and Loshini Peiris, Additional Secretary to the President were also on the committee. (Colombo/Jun14/2024)

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