Economy

Sri Lanka central bank foreign assets negative by US$780mn in Sept

Monday November 8, 2021 7:45 am

ECONOMYNEXT – The central bank’s net foreign assets were negative by 158.7 billion rupees (about 780 million US dollars by September 2021, and reserve backing of rupee notes were went deeper into negative territory official data show.

Dollar backing of rupees was negative by 12.2 percent.

The central bank has printed unprecedented volumes of money since February 2020, undermining bond markets with price controls further compounding the problem and lost record volumes of reserves.

As a result its reserve liabilities have risen compared to existing reserves.

The central bank owes money to the International Monetary Fund and domestic and international counterparties to swaps.

In addition the central bank also ends up with a negative balance on an International Monetary Fund special drawing rights allocation exceeds the holding.

However for net international reserves, calculated under IMF rules, the holding can be added up, despite the fact that interest is paid on the allocation.

Sri Lanka’s monetary policy started to deteriorate from around the third quarter of 2014, when different types of ‘monetary stimulus’ was used for boost unsustainable domestic credit in pro-cyclical credit recovery periods and shatter the balance of payments.

Up to December 2019 money was printed either to target the call money rate or to target an output gap.

From 2020 full blown injections were made under so-called modern monetary theory (MMT) coupled with fiscal stimulus and rural finance.

Some of the interventions are allowed under a sweeping powers given to the Monetary Board under a Latin America style central bank set up by a US money doctor, which had ruined many countries in the region.

However some including purchase of bonds may violate sections of the law and the overall economic instability generated by the central bank violates section 5 (a) of the MLA.

Net reserve banking of rupees which was 148 percent in September 2014 had declined to negative 12.2 percent by September 2021 based on the official reserve money.

In September reserve money went up due to hike in the statutory reserve ratio.

When reserve backing of the rupee falls, a central bank loses its ability to enforce a exchange rate peg (provide convertibility) and is forced to float (suspend convertibility). (Colombo/Nov09/2021)

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Economy

Sri Lanka to ramp up weekend fuel deliveries after petrol price cut

More deaths reported at Sri Lanka fuel queues

Friday June 2, 2023 5:52 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation will be operating on the weekend to complete all fuel deliveries to end vehicle queues forming outside fuel stations after the price revision earlier in the week, Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said.

“Instructions have been given to CPC and Ceylon Petroleum Storage Terminals to continue fuel deliveries on Saturday and Sunday this week to supply sufficient stocks to all fuel stations,” Minister Wijesekera said in a TWITTER.COM MESSAGE

“To reduce expenses on overtime, CPC and CPSTL have not been operating on Sundays and public holidays in the last 4 months,” Wijesekera said.

“Non-placement of orders by fuel stations from last Saturday, anticipating a price reduction, not maintaining minimum stocks, immediate increase in demand by consumers after the price revision, and quota increase have created shortages in the fuel stations.”

The Minister in April 2023 said all fuel stations would be required to maintain a minimum of 50 percent of stock tank capacity.

“I have asked CPC to review and suspend the license of fuel stations that had not maintained minimum stocks.” (Colombo/ June 02/ 2023)

Bonds & Forex

Sri Lanka bonds yield up at close, rupee at 291.75/292.50 against the US dollar

Friday June 2, 2023 5:21 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s bonds closed steady on Friday, dealers said, following the central bank’s decision to cut its main policy rate by 250 basis points.

The Spot US dollar closed at 291.75/292.50 rupees, dealers said.

The rupee opened at 290.25/75 to the US dollar Thursday and closed at 292.50/295.50 to the US dollar.

A bond maturing on 15.09.2027 closed at 24.70/90 percent up from 24.50/90 percent a day earlier, dealers said.

A bond maturing on 15.05.2026 closed at 25.75/26.25 percent up from 25.00/26.00 percent a day earlier.

A bond maturing on 01.05.2025 closed at 27.00/30 percent, up from 26.30/27.00 per cent at last close.

A bond maturing on 01.07.2032 closed at 20.25/21.00 percent, up from 20.00/40 per cent at last close.
(Colombo/ June 02/2023)

Markets

Sri Lanka’s shares edge up on positive macroeconomic sentiments

Friday June 2, 2023 5:18 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s shares closed higher in trade on Friday, over positive macro-sentiments encouraging investors to redeem their interest towards buying, an analyst said.

The main All Share Price Index was up 0.72 percent or 62.19 points to 8,753.80, while the most liquid index S&P SL20 was up 0.68 percent or 16.87 points to 2,487.29.

Sri Lanka’s inflation in the 12-months to May 2023 has eased to 25.2 percent from 35.3 percent a month earlier according to a revised Colombo Consumer Price Index calculated by the state statistics office.

Prior to the Monetary Policy investors were quite optimistic that inflation is to lower and interest rates will decrease and since exp, an analyst said.

Sri Lanka Central Bank is waiting for the government proposal on the domestic debt restructuring (DDR), the central bank governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said amid uncertainty over DDR and speculations over instability in the banking sector.

“On debt restructuring, the borrower is the ministry of finance’s treasury. Certainly we will announce what the strategy will be. We are waiting for a government proposal,” Weerasinghe said.

Sri Lanka’s investors are waiting on assurances to be made on debt restructuring and optimization, Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said, “It is up to the government to clear the uncertainty, because from our side we have done that part.”

The central bank cut the key policy rates by 250 basis points to spur a faltering economic growth as inflation was decelerating faster than it projected.

The speculation of DDR has hit the market and the risk premium has kept the market lending rates well above the central bank’s policy rates. The government has yet to present its plans on DDR.

Weerasinghe said the central bank has done its best to reduce the risk premium through bringing down the market lending rates while keeping the policy rates unchanged.

Sri Lanka’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe has discussed progress of International Monetary Fund program and debt restructuring during a visit of Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura, statement said.

“The discussion primarily focused on the progress of the IMF program between Sri Lanka and the IMF,” a statement from President’s office said.

“Attention was also paid to the on-going debt restructuring negotiations.”

However Officials from IMF have said Sri Lanka has to focus on expanding taxes.

“We discussed the importance of fiscal measures, in particular revenue measures, for a return to macroeconomic stability,” Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura said in a statement.

The finance ministry this week issued rules requiring everyone above 18 year of age to register to pay income tax.

“I was encouraged by the authorities’ commitment to negotiate a debt strategy in a timely and transparent manner.

The market generated a revenue of 738 million rupees, while the daily average was 1 billion rupees.

Top gainers in trade were Vallibel One, LOLC Finance and Browns Investment. (Colombo/June02/2023)