ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka must sustain macroeconomic stability through productivity-enhancing reforms, stronger export competitiveness and higher investment if it is to achieve durable long-term growth and return to its pre-crisis trajectory, a Colombo-based think tank has said.

While the island’s recovery from its economic crisis has been encouraging, growth remains vulnerable to external shocks, weak competitiveness and low investment, researchers and economists of the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) said at a roundtable discussion on its publication, Sri Lanka State of the Economy 2026.

Sri Lanka would need average annual growth of about 8.3 percent between 2026 and 2030 to regain its pre-crisis growth path, exceeding the government’s medium-term target of 7 percent growth, IPS Research Fellow Asanka Wijesinghe said.

Sri Lanka’s economy expanded 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026, supported by a pickup in investment, but rising imports and higher global fuel prices have widened external sector pressures, he said.

Wijesinghe warned that growth driven largely by domestic demand would be insufficient and stressed the need to expand exports to support higher growth.

He said Sri Lanka’s export competitiveness is under pressure as competing economies negotiate preferential trade agreements with key markets.

Indonesia’s access to the European Union market and India’s trade agreement with the United Kingdom could erode Sri Lanka’s relative position, while any loss of existing trade preferences such as GSP+ would further weaken competitiveness.

To address these risks, Sri Lanka should accelerate tariff reforms, simplify its tariff structure and secure more predictable market access abroad, while providing support for industries and small firms adjusting to increased competition, he said.

IPS Research Fellow Lakmini Fernando said fiscal policy must move beyond crisis stabilisation and support long-term growth by increasing productive investment.

She noted that government capital expenditure had fallen to historically low levels during the adjustment period and said achieving 7 percent growth could require gross fixed capital formation equivalent to between 30 and 42 percent of GDP, depending on investment efficiency.

Fernando called for greater investment in education, healthcare, skills development, social protection, climate-resilient infrastructure and green projects, alongside reforms to public financial management and procurement systems.

She also stressed the need to maintain debt sustainability through stronger fiscal institutions, adherence to a medium-term debt management strategy and continued engagement with international financial institutions.

Central Bank Deputy Director of Economic Research Yashodha Senadheera said monetary policy has limited ability to directly offset supply-side shocks but may need to respond when such shocks create persistent inflationary pressures or threaten inflation expectations.

Asian Development Bank Senior Country Economist Liliya Aleksanyan said Sri Lanka should improve energy security through renewable energy investments and diversify exports towards Asian markets such as India while maintaining access to traditional destinations in Europe and the United States.

Sampath Bank Senior Economist Sanjaya Ariyawansa highlighted the need to improve tax administration, broaden the tax base by integrating more small and medium enterprises into the formal system and strengthen fiscal oversight.

He warned that climate-related risks could have significant implications for agriculture, energy, public finances and financial sector stability.

Participants at the discussion said stronger institutions, improved implementation capacity and better utilisation of public investment allocations would be critical to translating policy recommendations into sustained growth.

The economists said durable economic expansion would require coordinated reforms in macroeconomic management, trade policy, public investment, fiscal governance and climate resilience, while maintaining policy consistency amid continued domestic and global uncertainties. (Colombo/Oct22/2026)

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s rupee closed weaker at 332.20/35 to the US dollar in the spot market on Thursday, from 331.90/332.05 the previous day, while bond yields closed steady to higher on selected tenors, dealers said.

A bond maturing on 15.09.2029 closed flat at 11.05/15 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.08.2030 closed at 11.55/60 percent, up from 11.50/60 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.10.2030 closed at 11.60/70 percent, up from 11.55/65 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.12.2031 closed at 11.90/12.00 percent, up from 11.80/90 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.01.2033 closed at 12.20/25 percent, up from 12.13/18 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.10.2034 closed at 12.40/50 percent, up from 12.30/40 percent. (Colombo/Oct22/2026)

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Colombo Stock Exchange closed down on Thursday, CSE data showed, with the benchmark All Share Price Index falling 1.05 percent.

The ASPI was down 209.38 points at 19,717.92, while the more liquid S&P SL20 fell 0.68 percent, or 38.43 points, to 5,618.48.

Positive contributors to the ASPI were Ceylon Tobacco Company (up 0.67 percent at 1,795.50 rupees), The Kandy Hotels Company (up 7.77 percent at 11.10 rupees), Asia Asset Finance (up 3.89 percent at 42.70 rupees), and Resus Energy (up 5.06 percent at 8.30 rupees).

Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka (down 3.60 percent at 50.90 rupees), Hatton National Bank (down 1.20 percent at 369.75 rupees), Dialog Axiata (down 0.93 percent at 42.40 rupees), Singer Sri Lanka (down 3.67 percent at 68.20 rupees), and Commercial Bank of Ceylon (down 0.38 percent at 196.25 rupees) were top negative contributors.

Market turnover was 1.10 billion rupees. The banking sector led turnover with 249.91 million rupees, followed by capital goods with 240.14 million rupees. Crossings totaled 155.78 million rupees, coming from Sampath Bank (93.25 million rupees) and Commercial Credit and Finance (62.53 million rupees).

Asia Asset Finance plans to raise 2 billion rupees through an issuance of 20 million listed, rated, unsecured, senior, redeemable 5-year debentures priced at 100 rupees each, subject to regulatory approval.

Vallibel One PLC said it had increased its direct holding in The Fortress Resorts PLC to 49.93 percent after purchasing 34.74 million shares from concert parties Vallibel Leisure (Pvt) Ltd and Dhammika Perera, bringing its collective group holding alongside subsidiaries to 53.89 percent. (Colombo/Oct22/2026)

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka has sold 2,282 million rupees of treasury bills offered on tap at average rates of 9.32 percent, 9.44 percent and 9.95 percent, the public debt management office said, bringing the total of bills sold in the week to 82.893 billion rupees.

Total market subscription was 2,282 million rupees.

The debt office sold a 3-month bill at 9.32 percent.

The debt office sold a 6-month bill at 9.44 percent.

The debt office sold a 12-month bill at 9.95 percent.

On Wednesday (21) the debt office raised 80.61 billion rupees of 3, 6 and 12 month bills after offering 100 billion.

Read more
Sri Lanka Treasury bill yields rise on shorter term, less bills sold

The settlement date is October 23. (Colombo/Oct15/2026)

ECONOMYNEXT — Profit in Sri Lanka’s National Development Bank PLC (NDB) fell 21 percent to Rs. 2.8 billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, compared to Rs. 3.5 billion in the same quarter last year amid high interest expenses, its filing to the Colombo Stock Exchange showed.

The group recorded basic earnings of Rs. 6.40 per share for the third quarter (Q3), from Rs. 8.09 rupees per share a year ago.

The Group’s interest expenses rose by 22.7 percent in the quarter to Rs. 16.1 billion.

Gross income for the quarter rose 4.3 percent to Rs. 27.1 billion, while interest income increased by 8.8 percent Rs. 24.1 billion.

However, due to high interest expenses, the net interest income fell  11.2 percent to Rs. 8.1 billion rupees.

“Our Q3 2026 performance reflects the disciplined execution of our strategy to recalibrate the balance sheet and pursue measured and sustainable growth in line with our strategic priorities,” Kelum Edirisinghe, the Bank’s Director/CEO said.

“Ultimately, these results reaffirm the underlying strength and resilience of our franchise.”

The bank detected a financial fraud worth Rs. 13.64 billion.

It said the gross impact of the fraud applicable for the nine months of this year Rs. 2.6 billion and the nine months of last year is Rs. 4.5 billion.

It did not elaborate adjustments in made in the past year’s accounts over the gross impact of the rest of the Rs. 13.6 billion fraud.

For the nine months ended on September 30, the banking remained the primary operational driver, generating Rs. 80.3 billion in revenue and delivering Rs. 14.9 billion in segment profit before tax.

Among other segments, capital markets delivered a segment result of Rs. 213.8 million for the nine months, while property investment generated Rs. 201.3 million and other operations contributed Rs. 4.5 million.

Total assets reached Rs. 983.9 billion as of September 30, 2026. Net cash flow from operating activities stood at an inflow of Rs. 24.6 billion, with total interest-bearing borrowings at Rs. 158.6 billion and customer deposits reaching Rs. 716.9 billion.

NDB Bank shares closed at 103.00 rupees, down 0.72 percent or 0.75 rupees. (Colombo/Oct22/2026)

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s decades-long engagement with extraordinary security legislation has reached a pivotal juncture with President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s government has decided to do away with the draconian Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) enacted in 1979.

Instead, the government tabled the Protection of the State from Terrorism Bill (PS-TB) in Parliament.

However, an exhaustive legal analysis by Amnesty International, alongside scrutiny from civil society and legal experts, suggests that rather than dismantling a legacy of state abuse, the new legislation threatens to institutionalize arbitrary executive powers under a modernized statutory veneer.

For domestic citizens, foreign observers, human rights defenders, and international investors, the bill presents far-reaching implications for human rights, judicial independence, and Sri Lanka’s broader economic stability, analysts say.

To understand the concerns surrounding the new bill, one must examine the legacy of the law it aims to replace.

Enacted in 1979 as a temporary emergency measure during the onset of civil unrest, the PTA was permanently codified in 1982 and became a cornerstone of Sri Lanka’s security architecture for over four decades.

Historically, the PTA served as a primary mechanism for systemic state abuse, arbitrary arrest, and human rights violations.

The law was disproportionately deployed against ethnic minorities, political dissidents, journalists, trade unionists, and peaceful protesters, analysts say.

Under the PTA, individuals could be detained for up to 18 months under administrative Detention Orders issued by the Minister of Defence without formal charges or meaningful judicial review.

The act uniquely rendered confessions made to senior police officers admissible in court, creating structural incentives for torture, coerced statements, and extended solitary confinement.

By shielding security personnel with broad immunity clauses and denying suspects prompt access to legal counsel or bail, the PTA enabled state actors to operate with near-total impunity, leaving victims without legal redress.

Despite repeated pledges by successive administrations and explicit commitments made to international bodies, the PTA remained actively used, with human rights data confirming dozens of detentions through 2025 and 2026.

The latest Protection of the State from Terrorism Bill introduces minor modifications compared to earlier legislative iterations, such as late-2025 proposals.

Most notably, the updated draft incorporates judicial oversight over executive decisions to proscribe organizations and removes vague clauses that previously criminalized acts merely intended to infringe on national sovereignty.

However, as Amnesty International highlights, the new bill retains significant grey areas and structural deficiencies that fall far short of international human rights standards.

“Any attempt to revise a counterterror law which has time and time again been weaponized by the authorities against dissent, government critics, and minorities must be given the utmost scrutiny,” said Smriti Singh, Amnesty International’s South Asia Director.

“The new bill must break with this legacy of abuse, not give the authorities new tools to silence dissent.”

“Serious Human Rights Concerns”

“Sri Lanka’s history of abusing such legislation makes robust, enforceable safeguards essential, and these remain inadequately addressed in the bill, sparking serious human rights concerns.”

While narrower than earlier drafts, the definition of terrorism in the PS-TB remains dangerously elastic.

The bill does not explicitly exclude peaceful protests, trade union actions, civic advocacy, or medical and humanitarian assistance from being classified as terror offenses.

Instead, it merely notes that such activities are not by themselves sufficient to establish an offense, a qualification that leaves substantial room for subjective interpretation and potential criminalization of civil dissent.

Furthermore, the bill penalizes acts causing a mere likelihood of substantial economic loss, setting a low threshold that could potentially classify mass strikes or blockades as acts of terror.

“Allowing a person to be detained for up to a year before being charged, with the prospect of a further year in pretrial detention, raises grave concerns about arbitrary detention and the right to a fair trial. No one should have to spend years in detention while the state delays bringing a case to trial,” said Smriti Singh.

“We urge Sri Lanka’s parliament to withdraw this bill and reform the law in line with international human rights law and standards. Until this is done, the PTA should not be misused further.”

In addition to broad definitions, the procedural safeguards within the proposed law remain deeply compromised.

The bill permits administrative detention for up to one year without formal charges, alongside the possibility of an additional year in pre-trial detention.

A cumulative two-year period of pre-trial deprivation of liberty severely undermines the presumption of innocence, the right to a fair trial within a reasonable timeframe, and protection against arbitrary detention.

Furthermore, although the bill establishes a review committee to examine the legality of Detention Orders, its members are appointed directly by the Minister of Defence, meaning an executive-appointed panel cannot substitute for independent, impartial judicial review within the regular criminal justice system.

Wide Police Powers

The draft also extends police powers, including search, arrest, and seizure authority, to the armed forces and coast guard, while empowering the Attorney General, with High Court approval, to suspend or defer prosecutions for up to twenty years in exchange for suspect concessions, leaving individuals exposed to prosecution for decades.

The passage of the PS-TB in its current form carries profound risks across political, social, and economic spheres.

For the domestic public and civil society, analysts say, the law risks creating a chilling effect on democratic expression by failing to explicitly protect industrial action and civic advocacy, exposing citizens and non-governmental organizations to the perpetual threat of weaponized legal proceedings whenever opposing government policies.

For foreign nationals, researchers, and tourists, overbroad security provisions that grant sweeping arrest powers to police and allow extended detention without charge heighten jurisdictional risks during sensitive political climate shifts.

Foreign investors and international trade partners must consider the institutional stability and predictable rule of law necessary for long-term commitment.

A national security framework that permits executive overreach undermines corporate governance standards and heightened environmental, social, and governance (ESG) compliance.

Crucially, failing to align counterterrorism legislation with international human rights benchmarks jeopardizes Sri Lanka’s access to vital export preferences, such as the European Union’s GSP+ tariff scheme, which hinges on compliance with core international conventions.

Replacing the PTA was meant to mark Sri Lanka’s definitive break with an era of state-sanctioned impunity.

However, as the Protection of the State from Terrorism Bill moves through constitutional review at the Supreme Court and toward parliamentary debate, international human rights organizations and legal experts agree that the proposed statute merely re-packages executive power.

To build a secure, stable, and economically prosperous society, Sri Lanka requires a counterterrorism framework strictly aligned with UN standards, one that clearly defines terror offenses, preserves judicial oversight, protects peaceful dissent, and ensures equal protection under the law for all. (Colombo/October 22/2026)