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Saturday September 30th, 2023

Sri Lanka forex shortages crippling businesses, IMF deal urged by Chambers

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka main business chambers say their importers, banks and are being crippled by foreign exchange shortages and some may have to relocate overseas and foreign investors will also be discouraged.

Sri Lanka is facing forex shortages and parallel exchange rates after rupee liquidity injections made to keep interest rates low had hit the credibility of a soft-peg with the US dollar. Enforcement of a 200 to the US dollar peg with partial convertibility had led to forex shortages.

“This will affect in maintaining the credibility of doing business with our suppliers and business associates with whom we transact in foreign currency,” the chambers said in a joint statement.

“At present we face the difficulties in obtaining foreign currency to finance much needed imports due to the prevailing situation with regard to the lack of availability of foreign currency.

“These range from not being able to obtain letters of credit to the inability to clear goods that have already arrived in the port due to delays experienced in honouring letters of credit.

“We are concerned that while the importers themselves will face immense financial costs in the form of demurrage and other logistics related costs, it will also affect longstanding relationships built with suppliers resulting in a serious and irreversible loss of confidence.”

Indirect exporters and firms providing support services for exports are also hit.

The chambers urged the government to finalize the negotiations for short term funds through swaps and other arraignments.

“If these actions as envisaged by the recently announced Roadmap by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka are not materializing within the anticipated time-frames, we earnestly request the Government to reconsider other alternative courses of action available to the country such as engaging with IMF to explore the funding options they can offer.

Analysts have said Sri Lanka will have to hike rates to slow domestic credit, suspend convertibility and float the currency to end forex shortages.

The full statement is reproduced below:

Joint Chambers express concern on the impact of currency shortage

We wish to draw the attention of the Government to the difficulties faced by our member companies and the broader private sector in obtaining foreign currency to finance much needed imports due to the prevailing situation with regard to the lack of availability of foreign currency.

This will affect in maintaining the credibility of doing business with our suppliers and business associates with whom we transact in foreign currency. At present we face the difficulties in obtaining foreign currency to finance much needed imports due to the prevailing situation with regard to the lack of availability of foreign currency.

These range from not being able to obtain letters of credit to the inability to clear goods that have already arrived in the port due to delays experienced in honouring letters of credit. Further, this impact is also felt by indirect exporters and firms providing support services for exports.

We are concerned that while the importers themselves will face immense financial costs in the form of demurrage and other logistics related costs, it will also affect longstanding relationships built with suppliers resulting in a serious and irreversible loss of confidence.

Importers are also unable to secure orders due to the inability to agree on a firm payment schedule as required by suppliers. This will seriously impede the availability of essential products especially during the upcoming festive period during which consumer demand is typically high for most products.

This can cause great hardship to the public at large and may result in a significant increase in the cost of living.

Further, the banking system will also face difficulties as a result of not being able to meet the needs of their longstanding customers and could eventually experience a serious loss of reputation if they are compelled to dishonor committed payments.

The Government will also experience a loss of revenue due to a drop in import duties at a time when increasing government revenue is of paramount importance.

While appreciating the efforts being taken by the Government to mobilse short term funding from a number of sources by way of swaps and credit lines, we urge the Government to finalise the negotiations on some of these arrangements and announce them with certainty as soon as possible with a clear indication when such facilities will become available.

If these actions as envisaged by the recently announced Roadmap by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka are not materializing within the anticipated time-frames, we earnestly request the Government to reconsider other alternative courses of action available to the country such as engaging with IMF to explore the funding options they can offer.

If these conditions that are critical for ease of doing business do not improve, we are concerned that it will result in many local companies looking to relocate their business operations overseas.

It will also seriously constrain our ability to attract Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) into the country.

Therefore, we wish to urge the relevant authorities in Government to take quick remedial action to avoid the negativeconsequences as outlined above and put Sri Lanka back on track to stage a strong post-pandemic recovery to reach vistas of prosperity and splendor as envisioned.

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Sri Lanka bank bad loan expansion slows in June quarter

ECONOMYNEXT – Bad loans at Sri Lanka’s banks, measured as ‘Stage 03’ loans to total loans and advances expanded by 0.5 percent to 13.7 percent in the second quarter of 2023, central bank data shows, which is a slower pace than the previous three quarters.

Bad loans went up 1.9 percent in the September 2022 quarter, and 1.0 percent in the December quarter and 1.3 percent in the March quarter, as debt moratoria also ran out.

In Sri Lanka and other countries, large spikes in bad loans are usually ‘hangover’ of macro-economic policy deployed target growth.

Amid a stabilization effort, credit can also contract, making the bad loans bigger.

Sri Lanka’s bad loans usually spike after period of credit growth re-financed by printed money (reverse repo injections made to artificially target a call money rate), and not real deposits, which then trigger balance of payment deficits which require steep spikes in rates to restore monetary stability.

Sri Lanka economic bureaucrats cut rates with the printed money in the belief that there is a growth shortcut by cutting rates to target real GDP, which has led to external crises since a central bank was set up in 1950.

However, policy worsened after 2015 when the International Monetary Fund taught the country to calculate potential out and dangled the number in front of a central bank which had taken the country to the agency multiple times after running down reserves.

In December 2019, inflationists also cut taxes on top of rate cuts, deploying the most extreme Cambridge-Saltwater macro-economic policy ‘barber boom’ style with predictable results.

When rates are hiked to restore monetary stability, bad loans rise and a currency collapse destroys purchasing power of the consumers and sales of firms which had taken loans.

When central banks cut rates with liquidity injections bad loans also go up in floating rate regimes (the housing bubble), but balance of payments are crises are absent. (Colombo/Sept29/2023)

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Sri Lanka expects restructuring decisions from all creditors: Minister

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka is engaging positively with all foreign creditors State Minister for Finance Shehan Semasinghe said this week as an International Monetary Fund review hangs in the balance on restructuring.

“All creditors are engaging positively with us,” Minister Semasinghe said. “We expect decisions from all our creditors. For us earlier the better.”

Sri Lanka is negotiating with Paris Club creditors and several non-Paris Club creditors like India and Saudi Arabia together and China separately. China is an observer in the Paris Club meeting.

The Paris Club held a meeting on Sri Lanka on September 22 with China as an observer.

Though Paris Club creditors have a well-oiled mechanism to give a quick decision on countries that default, the entry of China which had earlier not been willing to restructure debt, but was willing to give fresh loans to repay instalments, have complicated matters.

“Let me say again that we support Chinese financial institutions in actively working out the debt treatment with Sri Lanka,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters on September 26.

“We are ready to work with relevant countries and international financial institutions to jointly play a positive role in helping Sri Lanka navigate the situation, ease its debt burden and achieve sustainable development.”

There are expectations that Sri Lanka may be able to wrap up a preliminary deal with official creditors as early as October 2023 around the time IMF’s annual sessions take place in Morocco.

Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe is to make an official visit to China October.

Sri Lanka is expected to finalize a refinery deal in Hambantota among other investments during the visit, according to reports.

Completing Sri Lanka’s external debt restricting is key to completing the first review of the island’s reform and stabilization program with the International Monetary Fund, which is expected in October or November.

Without completing a review Sri Lanka will not have formal IMF economic targets for December, and no disbursement of the second tranche.

World Bank and IMF with the G20 group, which include India and China has formed Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable has been trying to fine tune debt restructuring going beyond the Paris Club.

IMF’s Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka Peter Breuer said Sri Lanka’s debt is ‘spread around quite a bit’ to a question whether an IMF review could progress without China, possibly indicating that the lender would prefer to have the country on board.

“This is a process that we have that applies in the case of Sri Lanka to both official creditors, meaning other countries that have lent to Sri Lanka on a bilateral basis as well as commercial creditors, for example, bond holders,” Breuer told reporters in Colombo.

“And as you know, the government is in discussions with all of these groups. In Sri Lanka’s case, the debt is spread around quite a bit externally and domestically.”

READ MORE Sri Lanka’s external debt restructure ‘progress’ decision by IMF exec board

Out of Sri Lanka’s 36.59 billion US dollars of central government debt, multilaterals held 29.8 percent or 10.9 billion US dollars which will not be restructured.

Bilaterals held another 29.9 percent of which Paris Club was 12.1 percent and China 12.7 percent.

Of the commercial debt which was 40.3 percent, China Development Bank held another 6 percent, relating to a monetary instability loan it has given as a bailout without asking for rate hikes to stop output gap targeting.

China without AIIB held 6,850 million US dollars or 18.7 percent of central government external debt. (Colombo/Sept29/2023)

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Sri Lanka can build strong tourism ‘eco-brand’: UN official

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka can build an ‘eco-brand’ catering especially to younger tourists who feel strongly about the environment, United Nations Resident Representative to Sri Lanka, Azusa Kobota said.

About 70 percent of global travellers prioritise sustainability in their holiday choices, marking a ten percent increase from 2021, while around 30 percent of travellers feel guilty about flying, due to carbon emissions, she said.

“As the world embraces green thinking during this time of economic recovery efforts, the objective of the tourism sector cannot simply be about increasing the number of inbound tourists,” Kobota said at an event marking World Tourism Day in Colombo.

“It has to be about enhancing their experience through green lenses, by implementing a responsible, eco-conscious paradigm for the sector and building a stronger eco-brand around the sustainable agenda for Sri Lanka,”

“This is no longer about reducing the trade offs between growing the industry and protecting the environment.

“We must see nature as our asset and solutions to be obtained for the exponential growth for our future generations.”

The sustainable tourism market is estimated to have earned 195 billion US dollars in 2022, and is expected to reach about 656 billion US dollars in 2032, she said.

“Tourists, particularly the younger generations from gen X,Y,Z are deeply, deeply conscious about the long term choices of their actions, and the adverse impact of tourists on the environment.

“Statistics show that a significant proportion of global travellers, about 30 percent, feel guilty about flying due to the environmental impact and 22 percent say they actively prefer public transport and bicycle rental options, over renting a car.”

Sri Lanka welcomed one million tourists by September 26 and is expecting more that 1.5 million tourists by the end of the year. (Colombo/Sept29/2023)

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