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Saturday September 30th, 2023

Sri Lanka govt looking to distribute responsibility for IMF deal: G L Peiris

Prof G L Peiris

ECONOMYNEXT – The Freedom People’s Congress (FPC), a breakaway faction of Sri Lanka’s ruling party, has accused the government of trying to “distribute” responsibility for the country’s agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

FPC frontliner G L Peiris, who until recently was chairman of the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), told reporters on Monday May 08 that the government broke convention to debate and pass the IMF deal in parliament to escape any blowback from the public.

There is no tradition of parliament approving an agreement with the IMF, nor is there a legal requirement for it, said Peiris.

“The government is well aware that this agreement is not going to be a very popular one when implementing it, due to certain conditions it contains,” said Peiris, claiming that a wave of popular dissent on the agreement is on the cards.

“That’s why they want to divide up the responsibility for this,” he said.

The MP added that the government was keen to pin the responsibility on parliament.

“What’s important here is not whether it was appropriate to go to the IMF. Once you go to the IMF, how do you engage in the negotiations? What do you agree to and what do you not agree to? The government didn’t do this right, at all,” said Peiris.

Other countries that had to approach the iMF, he said, made honest representations to the international lender with their specific needs and objectives in mind.

“Neither the Sri Lankan government nor its representatives want to do this,” he said, accusing the government of politicising the matter.

“The negotiations were not based on a national agenda and the people’s needs but with maximum benefit to a party and its leader in mind,” claimed Peiris.

Sri Lanka’s opposition parties, most of whom urged the then government in early 2022 to go to the IMF at the onset of the country’s worst currency crisis in decades, have now changed their stance on the deal that saw the IMF’s board approve a 2.9 billion US dollar extended fund facility (EFF).

Sri Lanka has had to agree to a painful but necessary reform agenda that includes debt restructuring, increased taxes and restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as part of the deal, and trade unions and a number of opposition parties have already started to protest.

Some of these parties have also, somewhat contradictorily, accused President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s administration of attempting to take credit for the IMF programme, while also claiming that the government is also hesitant to take ownership of the deal.

MP Peiris’ Freedom People’s Congress is closely allied with other factions of the SLPP whose foreign policies are closely aligned with China. One of these allies, the National Freedom Front, has openly accused the United States of conspiring to topple the previous government headed by then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Sri Lanka MP’s regime-change conspiracy theory confounds US ambassador

The leftist National People’s Power (NPP), led by the Marxist-Leninist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), has already taken up an anti-IMF position, likely anticipating some level of public discontent with the coming reforms.

The main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) meanwhile appears undecided at best, but is confident of forming a government in three months.

Sri Lanka’s SJB no longer enamoured of IMF, promises new govt in three moons

(Colombo/May08/2023)

Comments (4)

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  1. ravi@bosspro.com says:

    Hi

    Stop talking garbage.
    What were you doing with Mr. R team?

  2. Sonny Blake says:

    After raising your hand to anything and everything the Rajapakse clan did and being part of the downfall of the country, now you are trying to be Mr. Clean. Shame on you GL.

  3. DevAnanad says:

    Mr Peris was part of the Rajapaksa regime which made the country bankrupt. It’s a rich coming from him about passing the blame

  4. sacre blieu says:

    Due to the selfish ambition and base desire to become the President of the country, no matter even on derelict principles, we will see the social rotting fabric being torn apart, and more suffering of the hapless citizen. The increase in the drug mafia and even other crimes is increasing and now, even the increase in the number of DIGs is counter to such increase in ranks in the circumstance.

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Comments (4)

Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

  1. ravi@bosspro.com says:

    Hi

    Stop talking garbage.
    What were you doing with Mr. R team?

  2. Sonny Blake says:

    After raising your hand to anything and everything the Rajapakse clan did and being part of the downfall of the country, now you are trying to be Mr. Clean. Shame on you GL.

  3. DevAnanad says:

    Mr Peris was part of the Rajapaksa regime which made the country bankrupt. It’s a rich coming from him about passing the blame

  4. sacre blieu says:

    Due to the selfish ambition and base desire to become the President of the country, no matter even on derelict principles, we will see the social rotting fabric being torn apart, and more suffering of the hapless citizen. The increase in the drug mafia and even other crimes is increasing and now, even the increase in the number of DIGs is counter to such increase in ranks in the circumstance.

Sri Lanka bank bad loan expansion slows in June quarter

ECONOMYNEXT – Bad loans at Sri Lanka’s banks, measured as ‘Stage 03’ loans to total loans and advances expanded by 0.5 percent to 13.7 percent in the second quarter of 2023, central bank data shows, which is a slower pace than the previous three quarters.

Bad loans went up 1.9 percent in the September 2022 quarter, and 1.0 percent in the December quarter and 1.3 percent in the March quarter, as debt moratoria also ran out.

In Sri Lanka and other countries, large spikes in bad loans are usually ‘hangover’ of macro-economic policy deployed target growth.

Amid a stabilization effort, credit can also contract, making the bad loans bigger.

Sri Lanka’s bad loans usually spike after period of credit growth re-financed by printed money (reverse repo injections made to artificially target a call money rate), and not real deposits, which then trigger balance of payment deficits which require steep spikes in rates to restore monetary stability.

Sri Lanka economic bureaucrats cut rates with the printed money in the belief that there is a growth shortcut by cutting rates to target real GDP, which has led to external crises since a central bank was set up in 1950.

However, policy worsened after 2015 when the International Monetary Fund taught the country to calculate potential out and dangled the number in front of a central bank which had taken the country to the agency multiple times after running down reserves.

In December 2019, inflationists also cut taxes on top of rate cuts, deploying the most extreme Cambridge-Saltwater macro-economic policy ‘barber boom’ style with predictable results.

When rates are hiked to restore monetary stability, bad loans rise and a currency collapse destroys purchasing power of the consumers and sales of firms which had taken loans.

When central banks cut rates with liquidity injections bad loans also go up in floating rate regimes (the housing bubble), but balance of payments are crises are absent. (Colombo/Sept29/2023)

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Sri Lanka expects restructuring decisions from all creditors: Minister

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka is engaging positively with all foreign creditors State Minister for Finance Shehan Semasinghe said this week as an International Monetary Fund review hangs in the balance on restructuring.

“All creditors are engaging positively with us,” Minister Semasinghe said. “We expect decisions from all our creditors. For us earlier the better.”

Sri Lanka is negotiating with Paris Club creditors and several non-Paris Club creditors like India and Saudi Arabia together and China separately. China is an observer in the Paris Club meeting.

The Paris Club held a meeting on Sri Lanka on September 22 with China as an observer.

Though Paris Club creditors have a well-oiled mechanism to give a quick decision on countries that default, the entry of China which had earlier not been willing to restructure debt, but was willing to give fresh loans to repay instalments, have complicated matters.

“Let me say again that we support Chinese financial institutions in actively working out the debt treatment with Sri Lanka,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters on September 26.

“We are ready to work with relevant countries and international financial institutions to jointly play a positive role in helping Sri Lanka navigate the situation, ease its debt burden and achieve sustainable development.”

There are expectations that Sri Lanka may be able to wrap up a preliminary deal with official creditors as early as October 2023 around the time IMF’s annual sessions take place in Morocco.

Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe is to make an official visit to China October.

Sri Lanka is expected to finalize a refinery deal in Hambantota among other investments during the visit, according to reports.

Completing Sri Lanka’s external debt restricting is key to completing the first review of the island’s reform and stabilization program with the International Monetary Fund, which is expected in October or November.

Without completing a review Sri Lanka will not have formal IMF economic targets for December, and no disbursement of the second tranche.

World Bank and IMF with the G20 group, which include India and China has formed Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable has been trying to fine tune debt restructuring going beyond the Paris Club.

IMF’s Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka Peter Breuer said Sri Lanka’s debt is ‘spread around quite a bit’ to a question whether an IMF review could progress without China, possibly indicating that the lender would prefer to have the country on board.

“This is a process that we have that applies in the case of Sri Lanka to both official creditors, meaning other countries that have lent to Sri Lanka on a bilateral basis as well as commercial creditors, for example, bond holders,” Breuer told reporters in Colombo.

“And as you know, the government is in discussions with all of these groups. In Sri Lanka’s case, the debt is spread around quite a bit externally and domestically.”

READ MORE Sri Lanka’s external debt restructure ‘progress’ decision by IMF exec board

Out of Sri Lanka’s 36.59 billion US dollars of central government debt, multilaterals held 29.8 percent or 10.9 billion US dollars which will not be restructured.

Bilaterals held another 29.9 percent of which Paris Club was 12.1 percent and China 12.7 percent.

Of the commercial debt which was 40.3 percent, China Development Bank held another 6 percent, relating to a monetary instability loan it has given as a bailout without asking for rate hikes to stop output gap targeting.

China without AIIB held 6,850 million US dollars or 18.7 percent of central government external debt. (Colombo/Sept29/2023)

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Sri Lanka can build strong tourism ‘eco-brand’: UN official

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka can build an ‘eco-brand’ catering especially to younger tourists who feel strongly about the environment, United Nations Resident Representative to Sri Lanka, Azusa Kobota said.

About 70 percent of global travellers prioritise sustainability in their holiday choices, marking a ten percent increase from 2021, while around 30 percent of travellers feel guilty about flying, due to carbon emissions, she said.

“As the world embraces green thinking during this time of economic recovery efforts, the objective of the tourism sector cannot simply be about increasing the number of inbound tourists,” Kobota said at an event marking World Tourism Day in Colombo.

“It has to be about enhancing their experience through green lenses, by implementing a responsible, eco-conscious paradigm for the sector and building a stronger eco-brand around the sustainable agenda for Sri Lanka,”

“This is no longer about reducing the trade offs between growing the industry and protecting the environment.

“We must see nature as our asset and solutions to be obtained for the exponential growth for our future generations.”

The sustainable tourism market is estimated to have earned 195 billion US dollars in 2022, and is expected to reach about 656 billion US dollars in 2032, she said.

“Tourists, particularly the younger generations from gen X,Y,Z are deeply, deeply conscious about the long term choices of their actions, and the adverse impact of tourists on the environment.

“Statistics show that a significant proportion of global travellers, about 30 percent, feel guilty about flying due to the environmental impact and 22 percent say they actively prefer public transport and bicycle rental options, over renting a car.”

Sri Lanka welcomed one million tourists by September 26 and is expecting more that 1.5 million tourists by the end of the year. (Colombo/Sept29/2023)

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