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Tuesday August 16th, 2022

Sri Lanka money printing, deficits could lead to economic implosion: IMF report

ECONOMYNEXT – Further money printing to finance deficits could lead to monetary instability while trade and private credit could eventually shrink, an International Monetary Fund assessment has warned, as the country reels from tax cuts and liquidity injections made to keep interest rates down.

Sri Lanka had large uncertainties which were tilted to the downside, an IMF public information notice quoting a staff assessment made after annual rticle IV consultations said.

Deficit spending

The budget deficit in 2022 was also expected at 10.7 percent of gross domestic product after an 8.9 percent of GDP deficit in 2021.

Sri Lanka has been printing large volumes of money under the so called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to keep rates down and finance the deficit. Deficits were also kept large under an anti-austerity ideology.

Related

Sri Lanka to cut foreign debt, ride Modern Monetary Theory: CB Governor

Money printing however, creates forex shortages as the new money is spent by their recipients (usually state workers and government contractors) and the money ends up as imports.

Former owners of maturing treasury bills which are bought by the central bank and are not rolled over could also end up with printed money as could banks, when reserve sales are sterilised.

Imports soared in 2021 to 20.4 billion US dollars. In January the government announced a billion dollars of handouts including more state salary hikes.

If the budget deficit and money printing (central finance of the deficit) is not contained, the economy could implode with private credit and imports collapsing, the IMF said.

Trade and private credit implosion, monetary instability

“The outlook is subject to large uncertainties with risks tilted to the downside,” an IMF staff assessment said.

“Unless the fiscal and balance-of-payments financing needs are met, the country could experience significant contractions in imports and private credit growth, or monetary instability in case of further central bank financing of fiscal deficits.”

Sri Lanka’s inflation was already at 14.1 percent by January 2021 (risen to 15.1 percent by February after the report).

Parallel exchange rates were around 248 rupees, significantly above the 200 to the US dollar official exchange rate which is undermined by the policy rate.

The policy rate 6.5 percent was far below inflation, which had risen to 15.1 percent since the IMF’s staff report which went to its Executive Directors on February 25.

Sri Lanka’s government debt including treasury guarantees and foreign debt of the central bank had risen to 118.9 percent by end 2021 from 110 percent a year earlier, and 94 percent in 2019, when tax cuts and money printing began.

“Under current policies and the authorities’ commitment to preserve the tax cuts, fiscal deficit is projected to remain large over 2022–26, raising public debt further over the medium term,” the assessment said.

Public debt was unsustainable, and a credible economic programme was needed to address the problem, the IMF said. Unsustainable debt usually also requires debt re-structuring.

Related:

Sri Lanka debt unsustainable, should stop printing money, hike rates, taxes: IMF

Sterilised forex sales

Money is being printed over the past quarter to offset the impact of reserve sales for imports (to sterilise interventions) effectively financing the private banks, with treasury bill auctions mostly successful after price controls on bond auctions were ended.

Sri Lanka has a Latin America style central bank with extensive powers to print money to finance the government, or private sector through re-finance schemes and also open market operations to sterilise reserve sales for imports or any other purpose.

Though forex reserves sales for imports should contract reserve money, push short term rates up, stabilising the exchange rate, the central bank’s commitment to a 6.5 percent policy rate was making it print money to sterilise interventions re-expanding reserve money.

In a quasi-fiscal activity, the central bank was also providing subsidies to remittances amounting to at least 8 rupees per US dollar, further undermining its ability to control reserve money.

The central bank was also engaging in a quasi-fiscal activity giving a premium for foreign remittances coming through the official banking system after parallel exchange rates were triggered by money printing and exchange controls.

Sri Lanka also faced risks of rising bad loans, rising commodity prices, bad harvests, or a COVID-19 spike though the government has taken effective action on that front.

Sri Lanka could grow 2.6 percent in 2022, the IMF said.

The IMF does not usually project what are called ‘disaster scenarios’ but gives advice on how it can be avoided, analysts familiar with the agency’s practices said.

Money printing, taxes

IMF executive directors urged Sri Lanka to stop printing money, hike interest rates and raise taxes and cut spending.

“Directors agreed that a tighter monetary policy stance is needed to contain rising inflationary pressures, while phasing out the central bank’s direct financing of budget deficits,” an Executive Directors assessment said.

“Directors emphasised the need for an ambitious fiscal consolidation that is based on high-quality revenue measures.

“Noting Sri Lanka’s low tax-to-GDP ratio, they saw scope for raising income tax and VAT rates and minimising exemptions, complemented with revenue administration reform.

“Directors encouraged continued improvements to expenditure rationalisation, budget formulation and execution, and the fiscal rule.

“They also encouraged the authorities to reform state-owned enterprises and adopt cost-recovery energy pricing.” (Colombo/Mar04/2022)

Comments (2)

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  1. Edie says:

    There has been NO ONE WITH a ABRAIN RESPONSIBLE TO SECURE DISASTER working at the CENTRAL BANK to prevent the economy down fall.

  2. Dimitri Ganegoda says:

    All the facts are not true.

View all comments (2)

Comments (2)

Your email address will not be published.

  1. Edie says:

    There has been NO ONE WITH a ABRAIN RESPONSIBLE TO SECURE DISASTER working at the CENTRAL BANK to prevent the economy down fall.

  2. Dimitri Ganegoda says:

    All the facts are not true.

Sri Lanka sovereign rating at SD but ISBs downgraded to ‘D’ by S&P

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating remains at Selective Default (SD), but the country’s sovereign bonds were downgraded to ‘D’ after missed interest payments, Standard and Poor’s, a rating agency said.

“The Sri Lanka government remains in default on some foreign currency obligations, including international sovereign bonds (ISBs),” the S&P said.

“We do not expect the government to make the payments within 30 calendar days after their due dates.

“We lowered the ratings on the affected bonds to ‘D’, following missed interest payments due on June 3, June 28, and July 18, and a missed principal payment due July 25.”

Sri Lanka is still paying senior creditors with money coming from deferred payments from the Asian Clearing Union.

Sri Lanka started to borrow heavily in foreign bond markets from 2015 after battering its currency peg with extraordinary liquidity injections under ‘flexible inflation targeting and the country lost the ability to roll-over maturing rupee bonds at gross financing level.

From 2015 to 2019, the country had monetary stability only in 2017 and 2019 as the pegged exchange rate regime was shattered with liquidity injections to target an ‘output gap’.

However the targeting the output gap led to currency crises (balance of payment deficit) and growth fell as stabilization measures were slammed.

From 2020 to 2022 even more aggressive liquidity injections were made and taxes were also cut saying there was a ‘persistent output gap’ until all foreign reserves including borrowed reserves were lost and the the country defaulted in peacetime.

The International Monetary Fund gave technical assistance to Sri Lanka to calculate the output gap and also endorsed ‘flexible inflation targeting’, with overnight repo injections, term repo injections, outright purchase of bond, despite having a reserve collecting peg.

On April 12, 2022 Sri Lanka defaulted despite being at peace.

The full statement is reproduced below:

Sri Lanka Bonds Downgraded To ‘D’ After Missed Payments; Sovereign Ratings Affirmed

Overview

The Sri Lanka government remains in default on some foreign currency obligations, including international sovereign bonds (ISBs).

We do not expect the government to make the payments within 30 calendar days after their due dates.

We lowered the ratings on the affected bonds to ‘D’, following missed interest payments due on June 3, June 28, and July 18, and a missed principal payment due July 25.

We affirmed our ‘SD/SD’ foreign currency and ‘CCC-/C’ local currency ratings on Sri Lanka. The outlook on the long-term local currency rating is negative.

Rating Action

On Aug. 15, 2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘SD’ long-term and ‘SD’ short-term foreign currency sovereign ratings on Sri Lanka. At the same time, we affirmed our ‘CCC-‘ long-term and ‘C’ short-term local currency sovereign ratings. The outlook on the long-term local currency rating remains negative.

In addition, we lowered to ‘D’ from ‘CC’ the issue ratings on the following bonds with missed coupon or principal payments:

US$650 million, 6.125% bonds due June 3, 2025.

US$1.0 billion, 6.825% bonds due July 18, 2026.

US$1.0 billion, 5.875% bonds due July 25, 2022.

US$500 million, 6.35% bonds due June 28, 2024.

Our transfer and convertibility assessment at ‘CC’ is unchanged.

Outlook

Our foreign currency rating on Sri Lanka is ‘SD’ (selective default). We do not assign outlooks to ‘SD’ ratings because they express a condition and not a forward-looking opinion of default probability.

The negative outlook on the local currency rating reflects the high risk to commercial debt repayments over the next 12 months in the context of Sri Lanka’s economic, external, and fiscal pressures.

Downside scenario

We could lower the local currency ratings if there are indications of nonpayment or restructuring of Sri Lankan rupee-denominated obligations.

Upside scenario

We could revise the outlook to stable or raise the local currency ratings if we perceive that the likelihood of the government’s local currency debt being excluded from any debt restructuring has increased. This could be the case if, for example, the government receives significant donor funding, which gives it some time to implement immediate and transformative reforms.

We would raise our long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating upon completion of the government’s bond restructuring. The rating would reflect Sri Lanka’s post-restructuring creditworthiness. Our post-restructuring ratings tend to be in the ‘CCC’ or low ‘B’ categories, depending on the sovereign’s new debt structure and capacity to support that debt.

Rationale

Sri Lanka’s external public debt moratorium prevents payment of interest and principal obligations due on the government’s ISBs. As such, interest payments due June 3, June 28, and July 18 on its ISBs maturing 2024, 2025, and 2026, and the principal payment on its July 25, 2022, ISB, would have been affected. Following the missed payments, and given our expectation that payment will not be made within 30 calendar days of the due date, we have lowered the issue ratings on these bonds to ‘D’ (default).

Overdue payments now include the following bonds:

US$1.0 billion, 5.875% bonds due 2022.

US$1.25 billion, 5.75% bonds due 2023.

US$500 million, 6.35% bonds due 2024.

US$1.5 billion, 6.85% bonds due 2025.

US$650 million, 6.125% bonds due 2025.

US$1.0 billion, 6.825% bonds due 2026.

US$1.5 billion, 6.20% bonds due 2027.

US$1.25 billion, 6.75% bonds due 2028.

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Sri Lanka rupee guidance peg edges up; market sees dull trade in govt securities 

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s rupee guidance peg on interbank spot trading strengthened by seven cents while yields on Treasury bills and bonds remained dull on Monday (15) with only a handful of maturities quoted ahead of the central bank’s monetary policy rates later this week, dealers said.

“There was nothing in the market. It was dull today,” a market dealer said.

The central bank will announce its latest key monetary policy rates on Thursday, August 18.

A bond maturing on 01. 06. 2025 closed at at 27.50/28.50 percent on Monday, slightly down from 27.30/28.30 percent on Friday.

The three-month T-bill closed flat at 26.00/27.00 percent on Monday.

Sri Lanka’s central bank announced a guidance peg for interbank transactions strengthened by 7 cents to 360.92 rupees against the US dollar on Monday from 360.85 rupees.

Data showed that commercial banks offered dollars for telegraphic transfers between 369.70 and 370.00 for small transactions. (Colombo/ Aug 15/2022)

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Sri Lanka stocks rally continues for 12th straight session on political stability hopes 

The main index fell for the 4th consecutive session

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka stocks gained for the 12th consecutive session on Monday (15) ending at their highest in more than four months pushed by retail shares amid signs of political stability after months of protests, dealers said.

The market generated 5.8 billion rupees in turnover, nearly twice of this year’s average daily turnover of 3.11 billion rupees.

The main All Share Price Index (ASPI) rose 1.82% or 164.04 points to 9,191.52, its highest since March 30. The index has risen 19.6% in the last 12 sessions.

“We are seeing a lot of volatility in the market today due to profit taking in the key shares that gained in the last 11 sessions,” a market analyst said.

“Profit-taking also returned after the CSE (Colombo Stock Exchange) published the last set of June reports that showed some counters having done very while some not so much, therefore, there is a significant reaction for that.”

In the last few sessions, the market was mostly driven by Lanka IOC and the plantation sector.

However, ahead of the fuel price revision, LIOC moved to red.

“There was a bit of profit taking on anticipation of price cuts. However, unless fuel prices are cut sharply, LIOC will continue to move,” the analyst said.

At the start of the month, CPC cut fuel prices by 10 rupees based on the price formula.

Globally, crude oil prices have dropped hence there is strong speculation that fuel prices will be cut further.

Last week, Sri Lanka announced a 75 percent electricity tariff hike.

Investors previously feared the move would drag the market down due to possible higher costs for manufacturing firms.

However, the political stability after four months of protest is seen as the catalyst for the market gain, dealers said.

The government also tabled an interim budget last week, revising the budget presented last year as the country is going through an unprecedented economic crisis amid plans on a four-year IMF loan programme, debt restructuring, fiscal reforms, and dealing with loss-making state-owned enterprises.

Sri Lanka already declared sovereign debt default on April 12 this year and failed to pay its first sovereign debt in May amid a deepening economic crisis which later turned into a political crisis and led to a change in the president, cabinet, and government.

The more liquid S&P SL20 index moved up, closing at 0.82% or 25.28 points stronger at 3,097.30.

Sri Lanka is facing its worst fuel and economic crisis in its post-independence era and the economy is expected to contract 7 percent this year.

The main ASPI gained 18.8 percent in August so far after gaining 5.3 percent in July. It lost 9.3 percent in June, 23 percent in April, and 14.5 percent in March.

The market index has lost 24.8 percent so far this year after being one of the world’s best stock markets with an 80 percent return last year when large volumes of money were printed.

Sri Lanka’s sovereign debt default on April 12 has already led the country to be rated with restricted/selective default rating by rating agencies, which has weighed on investor sentiment.

Net foreign outflow was 117 million rupees on Monday while the total net foreign outflow so far this year is 1.3 billion rupees.

Investors are also concerned over the steep fall of the rupee from 203 to 370 levels so far in 2022.

Ceylinco Insurance which pushed the ASPI, closed 11.9 percent up at 2,143.2 rupees a share. Browns Investment closed 8.5 percent up at 8.9 rupees a share, and John Keells Holdings gained 2.5 percent to 129.7 rupees. (Colombo/Aug15/2022)

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