Economy

Sri Lanka needs more revenues, debt restructuring by Sept: IMF mission

Tuesday May 23, 2023 6:16 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka needs more revenues and restructuring debt by September was essential for debt to be made sustainable an International Monetary Fund mission said after a visit to the island.

“The mission discussed additional fiscal efforts that will be critical to ensure successful revenue mobilization,” Senior Mission Chief Peter Breuer and Mission Chief Masahiro Nozaki said in a statement.

“We also discussed progress on debt restructuring, noting the ongoing discussions with both foreign and domestic creditors.

“Achieving timely restructuring agreements with creditors in line with the program targets by the time of the first review is essential to restoring debt sustainability.”

The first review, based on June data is due in September.

The macroeconomic situation in Sri Lanka is showing tentative signs of improvement, with inflation moderating, the exchange rate stabilizing, and the Central Bank rebuilding reserves, the mission said.

“However, the overall macroeconomic and policy environment remains challenging,” the statement said

“Keeping up the reform momentum and ensuring timely implementation of program commitments, including to ensure central bank independence, improve governance, and protect the vulnerable, are key for Sri Lanka to emerge from the economic crisis.”

Sri Lanka is in the worst currency crisis in the history of the island’s soft-pegged central bank which ended in sovereign default in 2022.

The full statement is reproduced below:

IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Sri Lanka

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Messrs. Peter Breuer and Masahiro Nozaki conducted a staff visit to Colombo from May 11 to 23, 2023 to discuss recent economic developments and implementation of the Fund-supported program .
At the conclusion of the visit, Messrs. Breuer and Nozaki issued the following statement:

“During the visit, we discussed recent macroeconomic and financial sector developments.

Following strong policy efforts, the macroeconomic situation in Sri Lanka is showing tentative signs of improvement, with inflation moderating, the exchange rate stabilizing, and the Central Bank rebuilding reserves buffers. However, the overall macroeconomic and policy environment remains challenging.

“We welcome the authorities’ ongoing efforts in meeting key commitments under the Fund-supported program. Performance under the program will be formally assessed in the context of the first review of the Extended Fund Facility arrangement, which is expected to be undertaken in September 2023.

The mission discussed additional fiscal efforts that will be critical to ensure successful revenue mobilization. We also discussed progress on debt restructuring, noting the ongoing discussions with both foreign and domestic creditors.

Achieving timely restructuring agreements with creditors in line with the program targets by the time of the first review is essential to restoring debt sustainability.

Keeping up the reform momentum and ensuring timely implementation of program commitments, including to ensure central bank independence, improve governance, and protect the vulnerable, are key for Sri Lanka to emerge from the economic crisis.

“The team met with President and Minister of Finance Wickremesinghe, Governor Weerasinghe, Secretary to the Treasury Siriwardana, senior government officials, members of the opposition parties, CSOs, think tanks, trade unions, the private sector, and development partners. We would like to thank the authorities for the open and collaborative discussions and look forward to our continued close engagement.”

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Markets

Sri Lanka’s shares slip on profit taking and selling pressure

Wednesday June 7, 2023 5:18 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s shares closed lower on Wednesday after four consecutive gains in previous sessions spiraled into selling interest and profit taking, an analyst said.

The main All Share Price Index was down 0.28 percent or 24.39 points to 8,722.06, this is the lowest the index has been since May 02, while the most liquid index S&P SL20 was down 0.40 percent or 9.92 points to 2,468.44.

“The market was gaining in the previous sessions and there is selling and profit taking present today, due to continuously being on green,” an analyst said.

In the previous sessions the market was seeing gains, due to lowered policy rates and low inflation stimulating buying interest and driving the sentiment up, an analyst said.

Sri Lanka’s inflation in the 12-months to May 2023 has eased to 25.2 percent from 35.3 percent a month earlier according to a revised Colombo Consumer Price Index calculated by the state statistics office.

The central bank cut the key policy rates by 250 basis points to spur a faltering economic growth as inflation was decelerating faster than it projected.

“There are gradual improvements in the market sentiment, with positive sentiments coming in from lowered policy rates and inflation,” an analyst said.

The market generated foreign inflows of 12 million rupees and received a net foreign inflow of 18 million rupees, due to low share prices and discounted shares followed by a dividend announcement.

The market generated a revenue of 554 million rupees, this is the lowest the turnover has been since May 10, while the daily turnover average was 1 billion rupees. From the total generated revenue, the banking sector contributed 120 million rupees, Diversified Banks contributed 115 million rupees and the Capital Goods Industry generated 78 million rupees.

Top losers during trade were Sampath Bank, Commercial Bank and Aitken Spence. (Colombo/June06/2023)

Bonds & Forex

Sri Lanka Treasuries yields plunge, 12-month down 318bp

Wednesday June 7, 2023 4:04 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Treasuries yields plunged across maturities at Wednesday’s auction with the 12-month yield falling 318 basis points, in one of the biggest one day falls, data from the state debt office showed.

The 3-month yield fell 244 basis points to 23.21 percent.

The 6-mont yield fell 339 basis points to 21.90 percent, along with the 12 months to 19.10 percent.

The short-term yield curve is inverted.

The central bank last week cut its policy rate 250 basis points in a signaling move but is not printing money to enforce the rate cut.

The debt office sold all 140 billion rupees of offered securities. (Colombo/June07/2023)

Bonds & Forex

Sri Lanka forex reserves rise US$722mn in May 2023

Wednesday June 7, 2023 3:48 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves grew 722 million US dollars to 3,483 million US dollars in May 2023 from 2,761 million US dollars in April, official data showed as deflationary policy and weak credit reduced ‘above the line’ outflows.

Sri Lanka lost almost all its reserve in over two years as the central bank sold reserves and printed money to keep rates down (sterilized reserves sales) including borrowed dollars from India.

Gross official reserves fell to a low of 1,705 million US dollars in September 2022.

Sri Lanka’s central bank hiked rates in April 2022 to slow credit and also stopped printing money after it ran out of borrowed Asian Clearing Union dollars from India.

Sri Lanka’s gross official reserves are made up of both monetary reserves of the central bank and any balances of the Treasury account from loans or grants it gets.

The central bank’s net foreign reserves are still negative after busting up borrowed reserves to suppress rates. By April (before the collection of reserves in May) the central bank’s net reserves were negative by 3.7 billion US dollars.

In May alone 662 million US dollars were bought from the market, Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said.

Borrowing dollars through swaps and busting them up, was invented by the US Federal Reserve as it was printing money and breaking the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s.

Sri Lanka received a 350 million US dollar tranche from the Asian Development Bank and 331 million US dollars from the IMF to the Treasury for budget support.

The loans can be sold to the central bank by the government to generate rupees and spend. However, since credit is weak, not all the inflows go out of the country particularly as the central bank is conducting deflationary open market operations on a net basis.

By allowing the rupee to appreciate unlike in previous episodes of recovery in an IMF program, after a bout of money printing, the central bank is bringing down inflation – in some cases absolute prices – and restoring confidence and easing the ‘pain’ of ‘monetary policy’ or stimulus.

Related

Why is Sri Lanka’s rupee appreciating?

Though exports are falling, tourism revenues are also picking up.

The budget support loans, tourism receipts less the reserve collected will widen the trade deficit. Building foreign reserves involves lending money to the US or other western nations and is similar to repaying foreign debt. (Colombo/June07/2023)