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Friday October 9th, 2026

Sri Lanka should not tax capital gains retrospectively: Bellwether

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka has announced plans to charge capital gains tax and the proposal to tax shares has created uncertainty among investors and analysts, but care should be taken not to make it another retrospective tax.

It may be acceptable to charge capital gains tax, especially since it is the stock market analysts who have amplified an anti-people doctrine that Sri Lanka should charge more taxes from the people to raise a questionable tax to gross domestic product ratio, rather than push the rulers to cut spending.

This is a good lesson to all pundits who push for a higher tax-to-GDP ratio and ‘progressive taxation.’

Without doubt capital gains tax is the best ‘progressive tax’ available.

But the new tax should not further undermine the people’s right to a predictable legal framework by being imposed  retrospectively, which this administration did with the ‘ill gotten gains’ tax and other deadly one-off taxes.

Rule of Law

Until 2016 there was no taxation on capital gains. This was the law and understood as such.

If a tax is imposed it should only be imposed on capital gains made from this year onwards and not retrospectively on capital gains made during the time such gains were tax free.

Capital gains taxes are charged in this way.

Someone buys an asset for say 100 rupees. Then sells it later for 120 rupees. He makes a 20 rupee capital gain. If the capital gains tax is 10 percent he will have to pay 2 rupees for the upkeep of the state and rulers.

The taxpayer can also off-set any capital losses against the gains made. If he or she sells shares bought at 100 rupees for 50 rupees, the 50 rupee capital loss can be offset against any gains made.

There can be further refinements to say that shares or houses bought and sold within a small period is only taxed. Shares or houses bought and sold after several years, say 5 years, 10 years or 20 years will be exempt.

It is usual to exempt the first family home from capital gains taxes especially and any property that has been held for a long time, say 10 years, 20 year or 30 years. It is also the practice to reduce capital gains tax rate over time. An asset held for 10 years is taxed at 10 percent but an asset held for 20 years is taxed at 5 percent.

In any case the principle should be not to tax any capital gains made before the tax was imposed.

Transitional Provisions

The simplest solution would be to say that capital gains on any asset including shares bought before say 2016 will be exempt, at whatever date they are sold. This will ensure that only capital gains made from this year onwards is taxed.

Now that the market has fallen, there will be capital gains when it rises in 2017.

However even if the government wants to capture capital gains made on all shares from this year onwards, transitional provisions would be needed to avoid retrospective taxes.

For example say someone bought shares in a bank for 50 rupees in 2005 and it is worth 300 rupees today. If capital gains tax is enacted today, and next week he sells the stock for 310 rupees, his capital gain should not be considered to be 260 rupees. It should only be 10 rupees.

Since there was no ongoing capital gains tax regime, a deemed starting valuation date can be given to accumulate capital gains or losses.

This can be the date the tax is signed into law or any other suitable date in the future.

However a further complication arises because there was no ongoing capital gains regime in the recent past and the stock market has fallen since the new regime came to power.

Suppose capital gains tax is imposed from April 31, 2016 onwards. Someone then sells shares of a manufacturing company which had a market price of 150 (the deemed purchase price) on April 31, for 160 rupee in June.

He would then be deemed to have made a capital gain of 10 rupees.

However in actual fact he had bought the shares in January 2015, for 200 rupees, before the stock market started to go down.

The investor would then be in the unfortunate position of being forced pay tax on a stock which he had made a loss of 40 rupees (bought at 200 rupees last year and sold at 160 rupees though the deemed purchase price is 150 rupees on April 31).

Therefore transitional provisions must be available to either pay capital gains tax on the shares on a deemed starting date or the purchase price, whichever is higher. The gains on all shares would far outweigh the losses made last year.

Avoiding Pitfalls

But such measures however are more complex than charging taxes only on new shares or property bought from the date of the law or this year, and are best avoided.

To encourage smaller investors and perhaps help out pensioners who play the market, a certain amount of capital gains such as 500,000 to million rupees, can be made tax free.

In 2004, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe tried and failed to push through a capital gains tax.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe’s 2001-2004 administration probably saw the economic policy that most benefited the weakest and poorest in society and least benefited the state, the ruling class and their unionized acolytes since budgets implemented by then Finance Minister M D H Jayewardene.

In 2004, the administration cut spending, strengthened the rupee, brought inflation down to near zero and then gave a 10 percent salary hike to state workers, protecting the poorest and weakest in society from inflation and currency depreciation as well as the state workers themselves.

It is to his credit that inflation was brought down while the Federal Reserve was firing the mother of all liquidity bubbles and sending oil prices up. The bubble only ended in 2008.

For his pains, an ungrateful public, kicked the administration out of power, misled by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna and Sri Lanka Freedom Party, which banked on the ‘money illusion’ to mislead the public by promising subsidies and state jobs to special interest groups.

The JVP, with its typical unconcern for the poor and deceptively false doctrine, made the fuel price formula, which was what allowed inflation to be low and the rupee strong, a weapon to hit at prudent economic policies that helped all citizens.

This time the new administration gave a massive salary hike to state workers and printed money willy-nilly to pay the salaries and busted the currency to 145 rupees to the US dollar from 131, much like the so-called ‘Rata Perata’ economic policies did in 2004 by printing money to give fuel subsidies.

By the end 2004, just before the tsunami came and domestic credit fell allowing the currency to stabilize, it may be recalled that the rupee was down to 105 to the dollar from around 95 and inflation was near 20 percent.

But even more damagingly, this administration has undermined the rule of law and taxation principles dating back to South Asia’s Gupta Empire by imposing retrospective as well as large one-off taxes that threatened to bankrupt several companies (Sri Lanka’s fiscal tyranny by midnight gazette, retrospective taxes must end).

By violating taxation principles and rule of law, the rulers will discourage investments, which in turn will hurt new jobs and productivity gains, keeping people poor.

Retrospective taxation and one-off taxes, which is similar to expropriation, should be avoided in all true free countries with just rule of law (Colombo/Mar15/2016)

Feedback and queries: bellwetherECN@gmail.com

Sri Lanka Central Bank stubbornly defends 5% inflation target

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka Central Bank stubbornly defended the 5% inflation target it recommended and signed with the government for the next three years citing that it was the only “optimal solution” and rubbished claims that the target is high and erodes the purchasing power of the general public.

Economists and monetary policy critics have strongly advocated that the Central Bank lower its official inflation target from 5% to 2%, emphasizing that a lower target is essential to break the country’s historical cycle of currency instability.

Proponents of the 2% target argue that a 5% baseline implicitly embeds a continuous, compounding erosion of domestic purchasing power, increasing price levels by over 15% across a three-year window.

In a country recovering from hyperinflation, critics contend that a targeted 5% annual inflation creates an environment where nominal prices and living costs permanently outpace real wage growth, continually straining lower- and middle-income households.

However, the Central Bank recommended to the government and signed a three-year agreement to maintain the 5% inflation target for the three years through October 2029.

Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe explained at a panel discussion with his junior officers that countries choose inflation targets depending on their growth potential and ability to grow.

“So, this is where one can argue, why 2% inflation, is it better? Looking at the purchase power, it looks better, but it’s not better,” he told the gathering in response to a question.

“It is worse, because it will create a country that can grow, much lower below its potential…. It’s not welfare optimization. It will make a lot of people worse off than it will make a lot of people better off.”

A primary structural argument for adopting a 2% inflation target centers on external stability and protecting the Sri Lankan rupee.

When Sri Lanka maintains a 5% inflation target while its key international trading partners such as the United States, Eurozone, and major Asian economies  aim for 2%, a structural inflation differential of around 3% is built directly into the economy.

According to economic theory and historical precedent, this persistent inflation gap exerts steady downward pressure on the domestic currency, forcing nominal exchange rate depreciation.

Advocates argue that lowering the target to 2% would align Sri Lanka with global standards, anchor long-term exchange rate expectations, and prevent recurring balance-of-payments vulnerabilities.

Only 5%

However, Weerasinghe said the 5% target has the “right balance” and the Central Bank had conducted extensive research before arriving at the decision.

“I think, we don’t see any other counterfactual to say, it’s not 5%, it’s 4%, or 2%, or 3%, or 6%, or 7%,” he said.

“A lower inflation target can make the solution worse than what we think…. It won’t be better because everyone can be benefited out of higher growth.”

“If you are coming to a solution, where inflation can drag down the growth below potential, that won’t be the optimal solution.”

“We are all convinced and that’s why we have made the recommendation, government also agreed.”

He said the central bank will reassess and come up with the right level that could be lower in the future and that decision will be data-driven and evidence-based.

Analysts have stressed that a 2% inflation target is critical for lowering long-term interest rates and encouraging capital investment.

Under a 5% target, which carries an allowed accountability band of 2 percentage points, permitting inflation to fluctuate between 3% and 7%, lenders and foreign bondholders demand a higher inflation risk premium to compensate for potential price volatility.

This inflates domestic borrowing costs for both private enterprises and the government. By committing to a tighter 2% anchor, the central bank would provide greater policy credibility, reduce nominal interest rates across the yield curve, and foster a far more predictable environment for long-term private sector investment and debt sustainability.

The data showed, the Central Bank missed the inflation targets for most quarters in the three-year period through end September 2026.

The Bank has blamed lower energy prices for disinflation and missing the target below the lower band of 3% and higher energy prices for breaching the target above upper limit of 7%. (Colombo/October 09/2026)

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Sri Lanka rupee closes at 330.85/95 to US dollar spot, bond yields edge up

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s rupee closed at 330.85/95 to the US dollar in the spot market on Friday, from 330.95/331.00 the previous day, while bond yields closed slightly higher, dealers said.

A bond maturing on 01.08.2030 closed at 11.30/35 percent, up from 11.25/35 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.10.2030 closed at 11.37/40 percent, up from 11.30/40 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.02.2031 closed at 11.42/47 percent, up from 11.35/45 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.12.2032 closed at 11.75/85 percent, up from 11.75/80 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.10.2034 closed at 12.10/15 percent, from 12.05/15 percent. (Colombo/Oct9/2026)

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Sri Lanka stocks close up, ASPI gains 0.41-pct

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Colombo Stock Exchange closed higher on Friday, CSE data showed, with the benchmark All Share Price Index moving up 0.41 percent.

The ASPI was up 82.57 points at 20,316.91, while the more liquid S&P SL20 was up 0.45 percent, or 26.19 points, at 5,788.75.

The ASPI ended the week down 496 points from last Friday, amidst a mixed week of trading.

Positive contributors to the ASPI were Dialog Axiata (up 0.91 percent at 44.50 rupees), Hatton National Bank (up 0.93 percent at 379.00 rupees), Commercial Bank of Ceylon (up 0.38 percent at 200.00 rupees), Richard Pieris and Company (up 4.30 percent at 26.70 rupees), and Laugfs Gas (up 7.35 percent at 40.90 rupees).

SMB Finance (down 9.09 percent at 1.00 rupee), LOLC Holdings (down 1.25 percent at 415.25 rupees), Haycarb (down 1.37 percent at 198.50 rupees), and Industrial Asphalts (Ceylon) (down 16.67 percent at 0.50 rupees) were top negative contributors.

Market turnover was 1.05 billion rupees. Diversified financials led turnover with 233.69 million rupees, followed by capital goods with 200.09 million rupees.

During the session, crossings in Lanka Milk Foods (LMF) in the first half of the trading day drew market interest, Raynal Wickremeratne, Head of Research and Strategy at NDB Securities, said.

“Usually 20,000 is also a psychological limit,” Wickremeratne said. “When it comes back closer to that, people also might feel like it’s worth buying, so that’s why sometimes coming close to that you might have a bit of a move.” (Colombo/Oct09/2026)

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Sri Lanka Customs’ September revenue exceeds target by 32-pct

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka Customs exceeded its September target by 32.1 percent, while the revenue in the first nine months of 2026 jumped around 22 percent compared to the same period last year, official data showed.

Customs’ September revenue target was set at 195.6 billion rupees. However, the revenue-collecting body collected 258.3 billion rupees that month, exceeding the target by nearly a third, according to official data.

It also exceeded the cumulative target for the first nine months by 29.2%, achieving 2,117 billion rupees.

Last year, Customs collected a record 2,551 billion rupees in revenue, exceeding a revised target of 2,241 billion rupees for the year and achieving 64.2% higher revenue than the previous year’s revenue of 1,553 million rupees.

Customs has set a revenue target of 2,207 billion rupees for this year, 13.5% less than last year as it expects a significant decline in car imports. Data showed it achieved 95.9% of this year’s target in the first nine months.

Analysts expect the revenue collecting body to achieve its 2026 full year target by mid-October,

Sri Lanka Customs’ revenue jump is largely due to stronger enforcement, improved valuation practices, and a rebound in import volumes after years of contraction.

Following the 2022 economic crisis, imports fell sharply as the country imposed restrictions to conserve foreign exchange.

However, with the stabilization of reserves, the relaxation of certain import controls, and a steady recovery in consumer demand, customs collections from import duties, excise, and other levies have risen.

Officials note that tighter monitoring of under-invoicing and misdeclaration of goods has also contributed to boosting state revenue.

The combined effect of increased import activity, currency movements, and stricter enforcement has positioned Customs as one of the top revenue sources for the Treasury in 2025, providing a vital cushion as the state works to meet fiscal targets under the IMF-supported program. (Colombo/October 09/2026)

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IESL, Dialog open Sri Lanka entrepreneurs challenge

ECONOMYNEXT – The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka (IESL) and Dialog Axiata have launched the IESL National Startup Challenge, for aspiring entrepreneurs to transform innovative ideas into commercially viable, investment-ready startups.

The competition invites Engineering undergraduates, practitioners and participants in an Open Category for Non-Engineers to submit ideas across 12 innovation verticals.

“The IESL National Startup Challenge is designed to turn innovative ideas into viable businesses by connecting aspiring entrepreneurs with industry expertise, mentorship and continuous practical support,” Eng Jasmine Nanayakkara, Chairperson of the Entrepreneurship Forum at the Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka, said.

“By encouraging our engineers and aspiring founders to create, commercialise and scale solutions, we aim to contribute to new ventures, new opportunities and meaningful job creation for Sri Lanka’s skilled and educated next generation.”

Participants will progress through idea development, pitching, incubation, prototyping, validation, minimum viable product development and business scaling, supported by industry experts, mentors and ecosystem partners.

The programme will culminate in a Top 10 selection, with the first-place winner receiving an award of 1 million rupees.

Each of the Top 10 teams will receive a Dialog Digital Startup Support Package valued at 250,000 rupees, comprising selected Dialog digital products and services.

Dialog is providing technical expertise, mentors and digital resources to help participating teams develop, validate and scale their solutions.

“Dialog is extending its digital capabilities, mentorship and ecosystem support to help promising teams progress from concept to validation and investment readiness,” Dialog Axiata said.

The National Startup Challenge also brings together a network of partners, including The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce as Ecosystem and Mentoring Partner, Helago as Official Mobility Partner, Helakuru as Official Digital News Partner, and Real Life as Official Climate Action Partner.

Applications are now open via www.iesl.lk/announcements, giving aspiring entrepreneurs an opportunity to access the resources and funding they need to succeed. Applications close on 16th November 2026. For more information, contact mgr.pub@iesl.lk / 071 109 4393. (Colombo/Oct9/2026)

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Sri Lanka stocks trend higher, ASPI up 0.86-pct

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Colombo Stock Exchange opened higher on Friday, CSE data showed, with the benchmark All Share Price Index moving up 0.86 percent.

The ASPI was up 174.62 points at 20,408.96, while the more liquid S&P SL20 was up 0.86 percent, or 49.77 points, at 5,812.33.

Positive contributors to the ASPI were Commercial Bank (up 0.88 percent at 201.00 rupees), Dialog Axiata (up 1.59 percent at 44.80 rupees), Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka (up 1.76 percent at 52.00 rupees), and Hatton National Bank (up 1.20 percent at 380.00 rupees).

SMB Finance (down 9.09 percent at 1.00 rupee), Haycarb (down 0.75 percent at 199.75 rupees), Malwatte Valley Plantations (down 1.79 percent at 55.00 rupees), and Odel (down 4.04 percent at 9.50 rupees) were top negative contributors.

Market turnover was 343.62 million rupees. Capital goods led turnover with 77.51 million rupees.

E.B. Creasy & Company PLC announced that it has executed a corporate guarantee of 50 million rupees with effect from September 30, 2026, on behalf of its subsidiary, E. B. Creasy Logistics Ltd, guaranteeing banking facilities obtained by the company. The company stated that the delay in making the disclosure was due to a delay in receiving official notification from the bank on the execution of the guarantee. (Colombo/Oct09/2026)

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