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Thursday June 8th, 2023

Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Tea prices stabilize after falling on rupee appreciation

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s High Growns were up while Medium and Low Grown prices were down at an auction on March 22 amidst good demand brokers said, after an earlier steep fall in rupee terms as the rupee appreciated.

Total auction volume was 5.2 million kilograms and there was good general demand, Forbes and Walker tea brokers said in a report.

The weekly sale average grew to 1282.01 rupees from 1256.96 rupees from a week ago, according to data.

“Overall quality was lower to last, particularly teas from the Western Planting districts,” Forbes and Walker said.

High Growns

The High Grown sale average was up by 15.54 rupees to 1,334.85 from 1,440.05 rupees last week, Ceylon Tea Brokers said.

Ex-Estate offerings were fairly similar to last and totalled 0.74 million kilos

In BOP, a handful of invoices were steady and marginally gained following special inquiry, whilst the others declined up to 100 rupees per kilo.

“In the Below Best category, brighter sorts were down 50-100 per kilo, whilst the others together with teas at the lower end of the market declined 50-100 rupees per kilo and more.

Well-made OP/OPA’s together with lower end were down 50-100 rupees per kilo.

A limited selection of Flavory PEK’s that were available were irregularly down. Well-made Orthodox leafy PEK’s were steady on last whilst others together with PEK1′ in general were down 50 rupees and more at times.

Low Growns

The average price of Low Growns grew 34.45 rupees to 1,307.03 rupees.

A selection of select Best FBOPs appreciated following special inquiry. However, teas at the bottom appreciated. FBOP1s in general were steady.

Select Best BOP1s were firm to dearer following quality, whilst Best and Below Best varieties were firm. Poorer sorts maintained.

Low Growns comprised of 2.1 million kilograms.

In the Leafy and Semi Leafy catalogues, a few select Best OP1/BOP1’s were steady to up, whilst the balance were steady.

Well-made OP/OPA’s were firm to selectively dearer following quality, whilst the Best and Below Best together with the poorer varieties down.

Well-made PEK/PEK1’s were firm to selectively up.

Best and Below Best varieties too met with fair demand, whilst the poorer sorts were fully firm.

Medium Growns

The Medium Growns sale average was up by 19.37 rupees to 1,127.22 rupees last week.

Large Leaf teas continued to sell well, whilst the others were down by 50-100 rupees per kilo.

In BOPF better sorts were steady and up to 50 rupees per kilo, whilst the others were irregular.

PEK/PEK1’s in general commenced firm on last and declined 50-100 rupees per kilo as the sale progressed.

(Colombo/Marh 26/2023)

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Sri Lanka’s shares slip on profit taking and selling pressure

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s shares closed lower on Wednesday after four consecutive gains in previous sessions spiraled into selling interest and profit taking, an analyst said.

The main All Share Price Index was down 0.28 percent or 24.39 points to 8,722.06, this is the lowest the index has been since May 02, while the most liquid index S&P SL20 was down 0.40 percent or 9.92 points to 2,468.44.

“The market was gaining in the previous sessions and there is selling and profit taking present today, due to continuously being on green,” an analyst said.

In the previous sessions the market was seeing gains, due to lowered policy rates and low inflation stimulating buying interest and driving the sentiment up, an analyst said.

Sri Lanka’s inflation in the 12-months to May 2023 has eased to 25.2 percent from 35.3 percent a month earlier according to a revised Colombo Consumer Price Index calculated by the state statistics office.

The central bank cut the key policy rates by 250 basis points to spur a faltering economic growth as inflation was decelerating faster than it projected.

“There are gradual improvements in the market sentiment, with positive sentiments coming in from lowered policy rates and inflation,” an analyst said.

The market generated foreign inflows of 12 million rupees and received a net foreign inflow of 18 million rupees, due to low share prices and discounted shares followed by a dividend announcement.

The market generated a revenue of 554 million rupees, this is the lowest the turnover has been since May 10, while the daily turnover average was 1 billion rupees. From the total generated revenue, the banking sector contributed 120 million rupees, Diversified Banks contributed 115 million rupees and the Capital Goods Industry generated 78 million rupees.

Top losers during trade were Sampath Bank, Commercial Bank and Aitken Spence. (Colombo/June06/2023)

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Sri Lanka Treasuries yields plunge, 12-month down 318bp

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Treasuries yields plunged across maturities at Wednesday’s auction with the 12-month yield falling 318 basis points, in one of the biggest one day falls, data from the state debt office showed.

The 3-month yield fell 244 basis points to 23.21 percent.

The 6-mont yield fell 339 basis points to 21.90 percent, along with the 12 months to 19.10 percent.

The short-term yield curve is inverted.

The central bank last week cut its policy rate 250 basis points in a signaling move but is not printing money to enforce the rate cut.

The debt office sold all 140 billion rupees of offered securities. (Colombo/June07/2023)

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Sri Lanka forex reserves rise US$722mn in May 2023

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves grew 722 million US dollars to 3,483 million US dollars in May 2023 from 2,761 million US dollars in April, official data showed as deflationary policy and weak credit reduced ‘above the line’ outflows.

Sri Lanka lost almost all its reserve in over two years as the central bank sold reserves and printed money to keep rates down (sterilized reserves sales) including borrowed dollars from India.

Gross official reserves fell to a low of 1,705 million US dollars in September 2022.

Sri Lanka’s central bank hiked rates in April 2022 to slow credit and also stopped printing money after it ran out of borrowed Asian Clearing Union dollars from India.

Sri Lanka’s gross official reserves are made up of both monetary reserves of the central bank and any balances of the Treasury account from loans or grants it gets.

The central bank’s net foreign reserves are still negative after busting up borrowed reserves to suppress rates. By April (before the collection of reserves in May) the central bank’s net reserves were negative by 3.7 billion US dollars.

In May alone 662 million US dollars were bought from the market, Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said.


No pre-determined level to stop Sri Lanka rupee appreciation: CB Governor

Borrowing dollars through swaps and busting them up, was invented by the US Federal Reserve as it was printing money and breaking the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s.

Sri Lanka received a 350 million US dollar tranche from the Asian Development Bank and 331 million US dollars from the IMF to the Treasury for budget support.

The loans can be sold to the central bank by the government to generate rupees and spend. However, since credit is weak, not all the inflows go out of the country particularly as the central bank is conducting deflationary open market operations on a net basis.

By allowing the rupee to appreciate unlike in previous episodes of recovery in an IMF program, after a bout of money printing, the central bank is bringing down inflation – in some cases absolute prices – and restoring confidence and easing the ‘pain’ of ‘monetary policy’ or stimulus.


Why is Sri Lanka’s rupee appreciating?

Though exports are falling, tourism revenues are also picking up.

The budget support loans, tourism receipts less the reserve collected will widen the trade deficit. Building foreign reserves involves lending money to the US or other western nations and is similar to repaying foreign debt. (Colombo/June07/2023)

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