Fitch Ratings-New York/London-06 January 2026: The immediate and longer-term outcomes of the US’s removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro are highly uncertain, but they could have geopolitical implications in terms of greater US influence and power in the Western Hemisphere, Fitch Ratings says. Nevertheless, we do not expect Maduro’s ouster to lead to any immediate sovereign rating actions, in part because of Venezuela’s limited trade and financial linkages with the rest of the region.
The situation in Venezuela appears fluid. After condemning the US action, interim president Delcy Rodríguez said the Venezuelan government is willing to work with the US to “collaborate… on an agenda or cooperation oriented towards shared development.” The Trump administration predicated its action on Maduro’s alleged ties to drug trafficking and has signalled its other core objective is to gain access to Venezuela’s oil sector and to redevelop its oil infrastructure. But it remains unclear how it plans to achieve this and whether facilitating a democratic transition will eventually become a US priority.
The ratcheting-up of US political pressure on Venezuela and a military build-up in the Caribbean in 2025 had increased the likelihood of a geopolitical event. Various public comments from both sides indicate that some kind of accommodation between the US and a post-Maduro Chavista regime is possible. But the sustainability of such an arrangement would be uncertain, President Donald Trump has said that he could launch “a second strike” on Venezuela if US demands are not met and an escalation cannot be ruled out.
If the removal of Maduro and/or military escalation led to major political dislocation within Venezuela, this could increase security and macro-economic challenges in nearby countries. But absent this, we expect near-term spillovers to be contained. Neither Venezuela nor its smaller neighbours, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, have public ratings assigned by Fitch. Aruba (BBB-/Positive) could see disruptions to its tourism sector.
Maduro’s removal is consistent with the reassertion of the ‘Monroe Doctrine’ that places the Western Hemisphere – from Greenland to the Caribbean and Latin America – at the centre of US foreign policy and aims to limit China and Russia’s influence, as outlined in the National Security Strategy published in November. Shifts in US trade and migration policies since Trump returned to office a year ago have not had severely negative consequences for Latin American and Caribbean countries so far. But events in Venezuela could have a powerful demonstration effect on these countries’ orientation towards US priorities under Trump, their view of the credibility of US threats and their willingness to respond to US policy demands.
Colombia (BB/Stable), which bore the brunt of the Venezuelan refugee crisis during Maduro’s presidency, has already been “decertified” by the Trump administration for allegedly “failing demonstrably” to combat drug trafficking. This could expose it to risk of some form of US pressure, but this is likely to depend on the willingness of the winner of Colombia’s presidential elections, due in May, to cooperate with the US.
The demonstration effect of the forceful US action may also come into play in the upcoming review of the USMCA trade deal with Mexico (BBB-/Stable), bringing security and other non-trade issues into the negotiation that could make it more difficult. The Sheinbaum administration has stepped up extraditions of alleged cartel members to the US, but we think the USMCA review is still likely to be challenging, keeping economic uncertainty high.
Nicaragua (B/Stable) may see an increase in US policy pressure given the two countries’ strained relationship and President Daniel Ortega’s criticism of the US military build-up. Other Latin American governments have already demonstrated a more supportive attitude to the Trump administration’s strategic and economic agendas. For example, the Dominican Republic (BB-/Positive) has allowed the US access to airbases.
Over a longer time horizon, a restoration of Venezuelan oil supply could affect prices, which would be relevant for the region’s oil dependent economies, but this would be highly dependent on other, global supply and demand factors. Reintegrating Venezuela into the regional trading system could boost Colombia’s non-oil economy given extensive trade between the countries in the past.