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Thursday December 8th, 2022

US inflation likely to stay high in 2022, 2023 even if Fed tightens now: Steve Hanke

ECONOMYNEXT – Inflation in the US is likely to remain at 6 percent or higher in 2022 and 2023 even if the Fed starts tightening now as there is a lag of 12 to 24 months in prices responding to its actions, economist Steve Hanke has said.

US Consumer inflation hit 7.5 percent in January 2022 up from 7.0 percent in December, as forecast by classical economists who watched broad money growth.

The Fed has still not started tightening, but is buying US Treasuries despite raging inflation. ‘Tapering’ means excess liquidity is still being dumped into the banking system, but at a slower pace.

US broad money measured by M2 is currently growth at 12 percent. Typically there is a lag of 12 to 24 months from the time money supply expands to it starting to show up in the price index.

There was also a small possibility that Fed will panic tighten too fast and trigger a recession which would create stagflation, Hanke, is a Professor of Applied Economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore said.

The Fed will have to bring US broad money measured by M2 to around 6 percent to generate its 2 percent inflation target based on growth trends.

“The Fed is doing a lot of talking but they are not doing any tightening,” Hanke said in a recent interview with Kitco.com an online portal. “Money supply measured by M2 is still growing over 12 percent on a year over year basis.

“And to actually hit their inflation target of 2 percent a year they will have to bring it down to about 5 to 6 percent. That is about half of what it is now.

“Let’s assume they do that right away. We will have inflation over 6 percent over 2022 and 2023 and into 2024.”

Hanke last year accurately predicted a 6 to 9 percent inflation for the US for 2021 in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece after warning much earlier that the Fed would overshoot its 2 percent inflation target.

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US inflation will overshoot target, Powell delusional: Hanke“We had no crystal ball. We had the quantity theory of money,” Hanke said. “It is money supply stupid.

“If you have a surge in money supply, after the lag of 12 to 24 months, inflation gets into the system. As Covid exploded in the March of 2020 money supply measured by M2 in the United States has grown over 38 percent.”

Money produced by the Federal Reserve (reserve money or the monetary base) does not necessarily produce strong credit and broader money growth if the banking system is broken and they do not lend, such as in the aftermath of the bursting of the housing bubble.

However if there is a healthy banking system, Fed money is rapidly translated into credit and pyramiding broader money.

The US also gave ‘stimulus’ checks directly to people, further boosting demand, and then blamed ‘supply chain disruptions’ as demand for durable goods in particular came roaring back.

The Fed also dismantled a repo window which had earlier encouraged banks to keep excess money in the agency radically changing the monetary framework from the Janet Yellen years.

Fed is expected to end printing by March and start raising rates to reign in money growth.

The Fed could also tighten too fast and trigger a recession which would result in stagflation as it had done in the past Hanke said.

“I am not going to say it is going to happen. But it might happen,” Hanke said. “This inflation has gone up now. It could spook the fed so much and frighten them that they start increasing interest rates too rapidly and panic – they have done this before, because they really don’t know what they are doing.

“If they panic and raise interest rates too rapidly and too high we could easily have a recession. And then we could have the old stagflation problem. We could have a recession and would have the inflation.”

Powell had articulated unusual views – for a Fed chief – based on post-Keynesian theory despite the agency’s past experience in the 1920s, the 1970s, the 1980s and the run up to the housing bubble.

In a February 2021 congressional testimony, Louisiana Senator Kennedy questioned him about the 26 percent M2 growth at the time.

“Well, when you and I studied economics a million years ago, M2 and monetary aggregates generally seemed to have a relationship to economic growth,” he said.

“Right now, I would say the growth of M2, which is quite substantial, does not really have important implications for the economic outlook. We have had big growth of monetary aggregates at various times without inflation, so something we have to unlearn, I guess.”

Hanke said at the time that Powell was ‘delusional’. (Colombo/Feb10/2022)

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Sri Lanka in deep talent drain in latest currency crisis

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka businesses are facing a drain of talent, top business executives said as the country suffers the worst flexible exchange rate crisis in the history of its intermediate regime central bank and people lose hope.

“We are seeing a trend towards migrating,” Krishan Balendra, Chairman of Sri Lanka’s John Keells Holdings told an economic policy forum organized by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce.

“We have seen an impact mainly on the tourist hotels side, quite an exodus of staff (migrating) to countries we have not seen in the past. 

“We have seen people go to Scotland, Ireland. It has usually been the Middle East and Maldives. Australia seems like a red hot labor market at the moment.”

Sri Lanka’s rupee collapsed from 200 to 360 to the US dollar after macro-economists printed money to suppress rates.

Sri Lanka operates a ‘flexible exchange rate’ where errors in targeting interest rates are compensated by currency depreciation especially after the 1980s.

Classical economists and analysts have called for the power to mis-target rates and operate dual anchor conflicting monetary regimes should be taken away to prevent future crisis.

Currency crises are problems associated with flexible exchange rate central banks which are absent in hard pegs and clean floats.

“Something new we are seeing is that older people, even those in their 50s, which was a surprise, are looking at migrating,” Balendra said.

Businesses are trying to retain talent as real wages collapse.

Balendra said as businesses they see some stability returning and based on past experience growth is likely to resume, and they were communicating with the workers.

“We have a degree of conviction that the economy should get better, its the stability phase now and it will get better going forward so without the way our businesses are placed we should see good growth,” Balendra said.

“We can’t chase compensation that’s just not practical and we are not trying to do that especially if people are looking to immigrate but what we can do is show the career opportunities in the backdrop of the situation that people would rather stay here because its home.” 

Sri Lanka unit of Heineken says it is also trying to convince workers not to leave, with more success.

“We are all facing the effects of brain drain and it’s not just the lower levels… What we are doing is a balance of daring and caring,” Maud Meijboom-van Wel – Managing Director / CEO, Heineken Lanka Ltd told the forum.

“Why I say daring is, you have to be clear in what you can promise people, when you make promises you have to walk the talk. So with the key talents and everyone you need to have the career and talent conversations.

“I am a bit lucky because I am running a multinational company so my career path goes beyond Sri Lanka so I can say if you acquire certain skills here, then you can move out of here and then come back too, that is a bit easier for me but it starts with having a real open conversation with walking the talk – dare and care.” (Colombo/Dec7/2022)

 

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Despite losses, Sri Lanka to resume “park & ride” transport after complaints  

ECONOMYNEXT –  Sri Lanka’s state-run Transport Board will resume its loss-making City Bus service from January 15, 2022 Cabinet Spokesman Bandula Gunawardena said, after the service abruptly discontinued with the state-run firm’s director board citing losses.

The City Bus service was introduced in 2021, under the government of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, from Makubura to Pettah and Bambalapitiya.

The service was started to reduce the number of automobiles travelling to and from Colombo and suburbs by providing a comfortable, convenient and safe public bus transportation for passengers and riders who use cars and motorcycles as their means of transportation.

During the time period in which the service was initiated, there were 800 hundred vehicles that would be parked and would use the system, Gunawardena, who is also the Transport Minister, said.

The service was later collapsed due to inconsistencies in scheduling and it was completely stopped after

“Without informing the Secretary or the Minister of the relevant Ministry, the Board of Directors have come to a conclusion that this is loss making route and must be halted,” Gunawardena said.

“The users of the City Bus service brought to our notice and therefore I gave the Secretary to the Ministry of Transport the approval to start the City Bus service from January 15.”

“If we stop all loss making transport services then massive inconveniences will occur to the people in far parts of the island.”

The chairman of the state run Ceylon Transport Board has been asked to handover the resignation letter by the Minister Gunawardana citing that the head has failed to implement a policy decision approved by the government. (Colombo/ Dec 06/2022)

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Sri Lanka may see rates falling next year: President

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s interest rates are high and hurting small businesses in particular but interest rates are required to maintain stability, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said.

“One is, all of you want to know what’s going to happen to the interest rates?,” President Wickremesinghe told an economic policy forum organized by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce.

“I wish I know. The governor has told me that the inflation has peaked. It’s coming down. You all understandably want some relief with the interest rates to carry business on.”

“I understand that and appreciate the viewpoint. It’s not easy to carry business on with such high interest rates. On the other hand, the Central Bank also has to handle the economy. So maybe sometimes early next year we will have a meeting of minds of both these propositions.”

Sri Lanka’s interest rates are currently at around 30 percent but not because the central bank is keeping it up. The central bank’s overnight policy rate is only 15.5 percent but the requirement to finance the budget deficit and roll over debt is keeping rates up.

Rates are also high due to a flaw in the International Monetary Fund’s debt workout framework where there is no early clarity on a whether or not domestic debt will be re-structured.

After previous currency crises, rates come down after an IMF deal is approved and foreign loans resume and confidence in the currency is re-stabilished following a float.

This time however there has been no clear float, though the external sector is largely stable and foreign funding is delayed until a debt re-structure deal is made.

Sri Lanka’s external troubles usually come because the bureaucrats do not believe market rates are correct when credit demand picks up and mis-uses monetary tools given in 1950 by the parliament to suppress rates, blowing the balance of payments apart.

The result of suppressed rates by the central bank are steep spikes in rates to stop the resulting currency crisis.

A reserve collecting central bank has little or no leeway to control interest rates (monetary policy independence) without creating external troubles, which is generally expressed as the ‘impossible trinity of monetary policy objectives’.

However, it has not prevented officials from trying repeatedly to suppress rates, perhaps expecting different results.

After suppressed rates – supposedly to help businesses – trigger currency crises, the normalization combined with a currency collapse leads to impoverishment of the population.

The impoverishment through depreciation leads to a consumption shock, which also leads to revenue losses in businesses.

The suppressed rates then lead to bad loans.

In the 2020/2022 currency crisis the sovereign default has also led to more problems at banks. Several state enterprises also cannot pay back loans.

“…[T]he bad debt that is being carried by the banks is mainly from the private sector or the government sector,” President Wickremesinghe said.

“Keep the government sector aside. We’re dealing with it. How do you handle it? Look, one of our major areas of are the small and medium industries. You can’t allow them to collapse, but they’re in a bad way.”

Classical economists and analysts have called for new laws to block the ability to central bank to suppress rates in the first place so that currency crises and depreciation does not take place in the first place.

Then politicians like Wickremesinghe do not have to take drastic and unpopular measures to fix crises and there will be stability like in East Asia.

Sri Lanka had stability until 1950 when the central bank was created by abolishing an East Asia style currency board. The currency board kept the country relatively stable through two World Wars and a Great Depression.

In 1948 after the war (WWII) was over “we stood second to Japan” Wickremesinghe said.

“But we started destroying it from the sixties and the seventies,” he said. :We started rebuilding an economy, which was affected by a (civil) war, and thereafter the way we went, is best not described here.”

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