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Thursday December 1st, 2022

World’s largest trade deal (RCEP) signed in Vietnam as Sri Lanka controls imports

ECONOMYNEXT – Economic ministers from ten Association of South East Asian Nations and five other partners inked a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement in Vietnam, touted as the world largest trade deal.

The partners include China, the world most populous nation, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand and covers 47.5 percent of the world population (3.6 billion people) and 28 percent of global trade and a combined gross domestic product of 32 trillion US dollars.

Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand making up the ASEAN already has low tariffs and visa free travel.

Viet Nam said the deal, signed in semi-virtual 37th ASEAN meeting, would allow the countries to bounce back faster from a Coronavirus pandemic.

“In the light of Covid-19, RCEP could enable ASEAN to bounce back more quickly as such a deal allows firms to diversify their supply chains and increase resiliency of the regional economies,” Vietnam’s government said.

“The agreement aims to reduce tariffs and improve supply chains between Asian nations.”

The agreement comes after eight years of negotiations, and after the US pulled out of a Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), after Donald Trump, a nationalist with Mercantilist beliefs on trade deficits, was elected to office.

He lauded efforts made by relevant sides to address issues in the negotiations, saying he is delighted as after eight years of working hard, the sides have completely concluded the negotiations, enabling the signing of the agreement within the framework of the 37th ASEAN Summits and Related Summits.

“The global and regional economies are facing huge obstacles and challenges caused by not only COVID-19 but also the decreased global trade,” Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said.

“Therefore, the conclusion of the negotiations of the RCEP, the largest free trade agreement in the world, will send a strong message of ASEAN’s leading role in supporting the multilateral trade system, helping to create a new trading structure in the region, facilitating trade sustainably, developing the disrupted supply chains and supporting post-pandemic recovery.”

Vietnam’s continued reliance on free trade comes as Sri Lanka which is burdened by Mercantilism and monetary instability, tightened import controls and industries have to get permission to import raw material with blocked supply chains.

The supply chain to the cooking pot has also been hit by a ban on turmeric, which is encouraging smuggling and raising the risks of Coronavirus entering through fishermen, critics say.

Sri Lanka is following a so-called import substitution strategy developed in Latin America in countries with bad central banks built on the philosophy of the founder of Argentina’s sterilizing central bank, Raul Prebisch, which eventually led to currency collapses and sovereign default.

Most East Asian nations, including Singapore, Vietnam, Hong Kong and China went directly against the philosphy actively wooing foreign firms which were derided in Latin America as ‘multi-nationals’ and became industrial power houses.

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Latin America, and Argentina’s central bank in particular is still suffering currency collapses and triggering sovereign default.

“RCEP is primarily beneficial for goods trade because it will progressively reduce tariffs on many products,” Vietnam’s government said.

“In addition, the deal will allow businesses to sell the same goods within the bloc but do away with the need to fill out separate paperwork for each export destination and help Asian producers to sell more of their products to the rest of the region.

“Even for companies that export goods outside the bloc, there’ll be incentives to build their supply chains across RCEP member countries.”

(Colombo/Nov15/2020)

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Sri Lanka electricity losses from overpriced fuel, no tariff hike considered: regulator

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s state-run Ceylon Electricity Board’s high operating costs are partly due to excessive prices paid for fuel and no tariff hike is being considered, Chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka, Janaka Ratnayake said.

The CEB itself does not buy fuel but depends on state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and Lanka Coal, another state firm to buy fuel. Both firms are periodically caught in procurement scandals.

“They are paying about 385 plus rupees per litre for furnace oil,” Ratnayaka told EconomyNext.

“That is too much. From the global market we can buy it to much lower price. It can be imported below 200 rupees,”

“I ask the government to take the necessary steps to create a system to import furnace oil, like they did for fuel, to be imported at the lower price levels. If that happens, we can go without going for a price hike.”

Sri Lanka’s CEB generally gets furnace oil and residual oil from the domestic refinery and usually do not import furnace oil.

The refinery however is not regularly operating due to inability to get crude amidst the worst currency crisis in the history of the island’s intermediate regime central bank.

Ratnayake had earlier brought to light import costs of the CPC.

Pushing for operations efficiency of the CEB is a role of the regulator. Regulating costs based on global benchmark prices to push for procurement efficiencies is a standard practice. However the PUCSL is not the official regulator of the petroleum sector.

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Sri Lanka power tariff revisions sought in Jan and July: Minister

Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera told parliament that cabinet approval was sought to twice yearly tariff hikes in January and July of each year.

No Electricity tariff hikes are being considered yet, Ratnayake said.

Wijesekera blamed the regulator as well as successive administrations for not regularly revising power prices and pushing the sector into crisis.

In Sri Lanka activists had also blocked cheap coal power. (Colombo/Dec01/2022)

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Sri Lanka banks may need more regulatory, accounting forbearance: Coomaraswamy

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s banks may need more regulatory forbearance ex-Central Bank Governor Indrajit Coomaraswamy said as the country imposes stabilization measures after the worst currency crisis since independence.

“We need to look at regulatory forbearance,” Coomaraswamy told a forum organized by CT CLSA Securities, a Colombo based brokerage.

“For CA Sri Lanka to do some more accounting forbearance. They have given some already.”

Sri Lanka’s central bank has given some regulatory loosening in the mark to market losses and also in liquidity ratios.

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Sri Lanka relaxes bank capital rules to cushion bond losses as rates spike

Sri Lanka’s banks are seeing higher levels of bad loans after the latest currency crisis as well as mark-to-market losses, and the impact of dollar sovereign bonds in default.

Sri Lanka’s stage 3 loans were 7.9 percent of total advances (net 8.7) by the end of the second quarter of 2022.

It compares with a 6.6 percent NPL ratio in the first quarter of 2020 as the Coronavirus pandemic started, which also triggered bad loans just as the roots of the current currency crises started.

In a currency crisis, a soft-pegged or reserve collecting (flexible exchange rate) central bank will inject liquidity to either monetize mostly maturing Treasuries from past deficits (in Latin America mainly failure to roll-over sterilization securities) to suppress rates.

When forex shortages begin to emerge from the excess credit, the flexible exchange rate central bank will intervene and sterilize the dollar sales to keep suppressing rates and prevent reserve money from contracting. Both moves allow banks to give credit without deposits, worsening their loan to deposit ratios and blowing a hole in the balance of payments.

When interest rates correct to stabilize the currency crisis and injections end, bad loans pile up. During the Coronavirus crises however economic activity was muted, compared to previous credit cycles and large volume of injected liquidity piled up in the banking system.

Before the twin crises, the central bank had earlier made banks boost capital.

Coomaraswamy who was Central Bank Governor until the beginning of 2020 said the then head of bank supervision A Thassim had insisted that banks comply with the Basle III capital standards as early as possible, when he himself was prepared to give some more time.

As a result, Sri Lanka banks were well capitalized at the start of the crisis, he said.

In the crisis with government finances already weakened, the banks were made to give relief and took the pressure, Coomaraswamy said.

After Sri Lanka default in April and interest rates were normalized to stop the currency crisis, banks were now facing pressure.

CA Sri Lanka, the island’s accounting body had already given some leeway to re-classify trading portfolios of securities to reduce the impact of mark-to-market losses.

In previous currency crisis, the IMF makes the briefly float the currency to establish confidence in the exchange rate after raising rates to curb domestic credit. This time rates were raised after a float failed by a surrender rule.

A successful float leads to early exporter conversions and a resumption of delayed import settlements which leads to a gradual fall of interest rates. Fixes to the budget and utilities also help.

The falling rates help boost capital gains of banks, offsetting some of the loan loss provisions.

This time however though external stability has large been reached, there has been no successful float to convince the market but taxes have been raised and utility prices adjusted to reduce domestic credit.

Lack of clarity over domestic debt re-structuring has also kept rates elevated. But long term rates have now started to ease.

Meanwhile President Ranil Wickremesinghe had already proposed an asset management company to take-over bad loans. (Colombo/Dec01/2022)

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Sri Lanka power cuts expanded on low water levels

ECONOMYNEXT – Due to water level reduction in reservoirs and high usage of fuel in generating electricity was the main reason the Public Utilities Commission has approved power cuts of 2 hours and 20 minutes, Chairman Janaka Rathnayaka said.

Sri Lanka power cuts were two hours earlier. The Ceylon Electricity Board had requested a 3 hour cut which was not granted.

“The reason it was brought to 2 hours and 20 minutes, was the water levels are lowering in reservoirs and we need to maintain a certain water level to generate hydro power,” Rathnayaka told EconomyNext.

“And also we are using more fuel which is costlier, and therefore we had to increase the power cuts period”.

CEB unions had warned of extended power cuts from July unless coal for 2022 was brought before the April monsoon season starts, when ships cannot be unloaded.

Sri Lanka has already secured seven coal shipments which will complete in the next two days, and should work to secure 38 more shipments in order to secure the necessary coals for 2023. (Colombo/ Dec 01/2022)

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