ECONOMYNEXT – A presidential voting intent poll for September based on 599 interviews has shown Sri Lanka leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake leading at 46 percent, ahead of opposition leader Sajith Premadasa at 29 percent and President Ranil Wickremesinghe at 17 percent.
Support for Dissanayake among likely voters has increased by seven percent since August, according to the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), whose Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) showed the leader of the Marxist-Leninist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) ahead of the race.
The September 2023 MRP estimates are based on 599 interviews conducted in September 2023, and 13,431 interviews conducted overall from 1 October 2021–11 October 2023, with a margin of error assessed as 1–3% for Dissanayake, Premadasa, Wickremesinghe, and one ‘other’ potential candidate, the IHP said in a statement issued on Tuesday October 24.
All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 Presidential and 2020 General Elections, the organisation said.
Explaining the survey methodology, IHP said SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults, ages 18 and over, reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection. IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of MRP, with multiple imputation to account for uncertainties in its modelling, exploiting data from all SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month.
According to the statement, the SLOTS has been funded by the Neelan Tiruchelvam Trust, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), the Asia Foundation in Sri Lanka, and others. IHP said, however, that the sponsors play no role in the study design, analysis, or interpretation of findings, adding that interested parties can contact IHP for more detailed data and results. (Colombo/Oct25/2023)