ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s banks have built 3.7 billion dollars of balances with financial institutions abroad by the second quarter of 2024, rising sharply over a currency crisis, official data shows.
“The Banking sector maintained a considerable amount of FCY (foreign currency) funds with financial institutions abroad for the prudential liquidity risk management,” the central bank said in a financial stability review.
“The Banking sector significantly improved their balances with financial institutions abroad since 2021 to meet their liquidity needs in FCY, in an environment where a FCY liquidity deficit was prevailing in the domestic forex market.”
The balances had peaked at over 4 billion US dollars in the third quarter of 2023 and have since declined.
Banks had steadily reduced their borrowings abroad.
“FCY borrowings of the Banking sector further declined as many banks have settled their obligations during the period,” the report said.
“FCY borrowings of the Banking sector stood at USD 836 million at end Q2 of 2024.”
Sri Lanka repaid some government dollar borrowings (Sri Lanka Development Bonds) in rupees as part of debt restructuring and banks had to buy dollars and cover their dollar liabilities including customer deposits as their open positions suddenly widened.
They also had to build dollar positions to cover for provisions made against defaulted sovereign bonds.
Banks had to settle maturing credit lines and other borrowings as Sri Lanka’s credit rating was downgraded as forex shortages came from money printed to push down the policy rate.
Some banks also used their balances to cover letters of credit, banking sources say.
Banks (or any other economic agent) can easily make capital transfers abroad without using central bank reserves as long as money is not printed through open market operations to target a single or mid-corridor rate, or any other liquidity injections (inflationary policy).
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In the absence of central bank facilities, or if rates go up banks have to curtail domestic credit. Up to late 2022, until the central bank’s deflationary policy became effective Sri Lanka’s central bank lost its own reserves, in part due to sterilizing borrowed reserves from India.
The central bank eventually ran up a negative reserve position of about 4.6 billion rupees by printing money to target short term rates or to offset interventions to target its policy rate.
Sri Lanka’s central bank has been operating deflationary policy and also allowing the rupee to appreciated since late 2022.
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Since the default in April 2022, banks and th central banks has built reserves or repaid debt of about 7.4 billion US dollars.
Macro-economists started to depreciate currency aggressively after the IMF’s Second Amendment in 1978 destroying domestic savings and capital, expanding the number of countries that were referred to as ‘basket cases’ and triggering the first wave of sovereign defaults.
When savings are dollarized, macroeconomists are unable to expropriate savings through debasement, except in so far as the inflation created by the Federal Reserve.
Sri Lanka’s political leadership gave the freedom for people to break away from a money monopoly (de facto and de jure legal tender) and engage in deposit dollarization as part of post 1978 economic reforms.
Meanwhile the IMF as part of technical assistance to go for a single policy rate (effectively transferring even more extreme floating rate operating frameworks to reserve collecting central banks), has started promoting a de-dollarizing agenda in 2024, challenging an economic freedom won by the people 40 years ago, according to critics.
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In 1978, Sri Lanka lost a credible monetary anchor, leading to severe monetary instability and social unrest after the IMF’s Second Amendment to its articles. Inflation in Sri Lanka in the 1980s (where money supply was targeted without a floating exchange rate) was higher than the Great Inflation period.
Sri Lanka’s external default, despite the lack of a war – Latin America style – came after money was printed to target potential output (similar to full employment policies that brought down the Bretton Woods pegs) with IMF technical assistance, as well as inflation without a clean floating regime, critics have said. (Colombo/Oct16/2024)