NEW DELHI, INDIA — The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects India’s gross domestic product growth to ease to 6.9% in fiscal year 2026 (FY2026, ending 31 March 2027) — from 7.6% in FY2025 — before accelerating to 7.3% in FY2027, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026.
The forecasts are informed by assumptions finalized on 10 March under exceptionally high uncertainty envisaging an early stabilization scenario for the conflict in the Middle East. Evidence since then points to a higher likelihood of more persistent disruptions.
The moderation in growth in FY2026 is due mainly to heightened global uncertainty, due to the Middle East conflict, higher energy prices, and volatile trade and financial conditions. These external pressures are likely to weigh on exports, inflation, and capital flows in the near term. Growth is expected to pick up in FY2027, supported by strong domestic demand, continued public investment, and an improving external environment.
“Despite external challenges, India’s growth outlook remains resilient, aided by supportive fiscal and monetary policies and regulatory reforms aimed at enhancing labor flexibility and integration with global value chains,” said ADB Country Director for India Mio Oka. “Over the medium term, investments in clean energy, power sector reforms, and measures to boost manufacturing competitiveness and attract investment will sustain growth.”
Domestic demand will remain the main driver of growth during FY2026 and FY2027. Private consumption is likely to remain strong in FY2026, supported by rising real incomes, steady rural demand, and easing monetary conditions, although the waning impact of earlier tax cuts and increasing inflation could moderate its pace. It is expected to strengthen in FY2027, aided by an expected once-in-a-decade revision to government salaries and pensions.
Investment is projected to remain robust. Central government capital expenditure is budgeted to rise by 11.5% in FY2026, reinforcing India’s investment-led growth strategy. Supportive monetary policy, regulatory reforms, improved logistics, and healthier corporate and banking sector balance sheets are expected to foster private investment momentum.
Inflation is projected to rise to 4.5% in FY2026, reflecting higher food and energy prices, before moderating to 4.0% in FY2027 as supply conditions improve. The current account deficit is expected to widen in FY2026 due to higher imports, particularly crude oil, before narrowing in FY2027, due to an expected normalization of global energy markets and strengthened exports reflecting recent trade agreements with key partners, including the European Union, the United States, and New Zealand.
On the supply side, manufacturing and services growth is expected to remain strong. Manufacturing will benefit from recent trade agreements as well as key support measures outlined in the budget for semiconductors, electronic components, and rare earth. Services will also continue to be supported by the expansion of global capability centers and robust demand for high-value business services.
ADO April 2026 underscores the importance of rationalizing subsidies and transfers to protect vulnerable groups, preserving fiscal space for infrastructure and productivity-enhancing investments critical to long-term growth.
ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth across Asia and the Pacific. Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, ADB harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard our planet. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 members—50 from the region.