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Sri Lanka’s Dialog Axiata retains AAA(lka) Fitch rating

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Dialog Axiata has retained its AAA(lka)’/Stable Fitch rating given its market leadership in the growing mobile and pay-TV industry segments and strong growth in data services revenue, expected to exceed a quarter of total sales.

Fitch Ratings said in a statement Dialog is in a position to gain revenue market share from smaller telcos, with its superior 3G/4G networks capability.

“It has a solid financial profile with a revenue growth of 8%-9%, stable operating EBITDAR margin of around 35%-37%, and low Fitch-forecast 2018 FFO adjusted net leverage of 1.2x.”

The full statement follows:

Fitch Ratings-Singapore/Colombo-04 April 2018: Fitch Ratings-Singapore/Colombo- 4 April 2018: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Sri Lanka-based telecom company Dialog Axiata PLC’s National Long-Term Rating at ‘AAA(lka)’. The Outlook is Stable.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Market-Leading Position: Dialog’s standalone credit profile of ‘AAA(lka)’ is underpinned by its market leadership in the growing mobile and pay-TV industry segments. We believe the company is in a position to gain revenue market share from smaller telcos, with its superior 3G/4G networks capability. It has a solid financial profile with a revenue growth of 8%-9%, stable operating EBITDAR margin of around 35%-37%, and low Fitch-forecast 2018 FFO adjusted net leverage of 1.2x.

High Ratings Headroom: We believe Dialog would receive support from its 83%-parent, Axiata Group Berhad (Axiata) of Malaysia, if its standalone credit profile were to weaken. Dialog and its parent continue to have moderate linkages, which include sharing key management personnel, a common name and common creditors, which could result in reputational risk to Axiata should Dialog fail.

Unaffected by CTF Acquisition: Dialog’s rating is unaffected by the acquisition of Colombo Trust Finance PLC (CTF), a small non-bank financial institution, for LKR1.3 billion completed in November 2017. Dialog is likely to use it to expand its digital financial services strategy and supplement its payment settlement platform. Dialog is likely to infuse equity of LKR2.05 billion in CTF during 2018-2020 in order to meet an enhanced minimum regulatory capital requirement of LKR2.5 billion by 1 January 2021. CTF’s capital structure should then be strong enough to prevent becoming a cash drain on Dialog over the rating horizon.
We have fully deconsolidated CTF’s debt (which is mainly in the form of deposits) and EBITDA from Dialog in our analysis.

Proposed Taxes Credit Negative: Fitch believes that Dialog’s 2018 operating EBITDAR margin could narrow to 31%-33% (2017: 38%) and its FFO adjusted net leverage could deteriorate to 1.4x-1.6x (2017: 1.1x) if it were to pay an additional LKR4 billion-6 billion taxes for its mobile towers as proposed by the government. However, we believe there is a high level of uncertainty about the implementation of the taxes and we have not therefore factored these into our base case. Nevertheless, we would expect Dialog’s ratings to remain unaffected, even if the taxes were implemented, given the high ratings headroom.

The Sri Lankan government’s 2018 budget, announced on 9 November 2017, proposes to tax mobile operators LKR200,000 per tower each month.

High-Single-Digit Revenue Growth: We expect Dialog’s revenue to grow by 8%-9% (2017: 8.5%) during 2018-2019, driven by data services revenue growth of 30%-35% (2017: 39%) and supported by the removal of the 25% telco levy on data services in September 2017. We believe that data services’ revenue contribution (2017: 21%) to consolidated revenue will rise to over 25% in 2018.

Stable Profitability: Barring proposed tower taxes, we forecast Dialog’s operating EBITDAR margin to remain stable around 35%-37% as larger economies of scale in the data segment will support falling profitability on the voice and text segments. Strong data growth is supported by the proliferation of smartphones, with over half of new smartphones activated on Dialog’s network being 4G-enabled.

Negative FCF on Large Capex: We forecast a small free cash flow (FCF) deficit during 2018-2019 as cash flow from operations will fall short of Dialog’s large, ongoing capex plan and dividend commitments. The company will continue to invest about 28%-30% of its revenue in capex each year to expand its 4G networks and its optical fibre infrastructure. We expect dividends to increase to around LKR3.7 billion-LKR4.3 billion (2017: LKR3.2 billion) during 2018-2019.

Debt-Funded M&A: Some industry consolidation is likely, with ongoing intense competition in the mobile segment where smaller telcos are unprofitable and face high investment requirements. We believe Dialog and Sri Lanka Telecom PLC (SLT, B+/AAA(lka)/Stable) could acquire smaller telcos to strengthen their market position and consolidate spectrum assets. Dialog’s ratings have sufficient headroom for a debt-funded acquisition of a smaller telco for around LKR10 billion-12 billion.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Dialog’s business risk profile is stronger than that of similarly rated national peers, given its market-leading position in Sri Lanka’s mobile industry, stable cash generation, and integrated service offerings. Dialog has a larger revenue base and better operating EBITDAR margin than the fixed-line market leader, SLT, but this is offset by Dialog’s higher exposure to the crowded mobile market.

Dialog has a larger operating scale compared with hard-liquor market leader Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka PLC (DIST, AAA(lka)/Rating Watch Negative), given the fragmented nature of the alcoholic beverage industry. DIST is also exposed to more regulatory risk in the form of recurrent increases in indirect taxation, but these risks are counterbalanced by its substantially stronger FCF

Dialog has a larger operating scale and a wider operating EBITDAR margin than Hemas Holdings PLC (AA-(lka)/Stable), which is a diversified conglomerate with exposure to pharmaceuticals, fast-moving consumer goods, leisure and transport. Hemas is the largest private retail pharmaceuticals distributor in the country and second-largest home care and personal care manufacturer. Hemas’s FFO adjusted net leverage is likely to be similar to that of Dialog over the medium term.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch’s Key Assumptions Within the Rating Case Include:

– High-single-digit revenue growth during 2018-2019 (2017: 8.5%)
– Operating EBITDAR margin to remain stable at around 35%- 37% during 2018-2019 (2017:37.8%).
– Capex/revenue to remain high at around 28%-30% (2017: 32%).
– Dividend pay-out to increase to LKR3.7 billion-4.3 billion during 2018-2019 (2017: LKR3.2 billion)
– Proposed mobile tower taxes are not implemented.
– Deconsolidated CTF’s financials from Dialog.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action Include:

– There is no scope for an upgrade as Dialog is at the highest rating on the Sri Lankan National Ratings scale
Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action Include:
– FFO adjusted net leverage above 3.5x, provided there is no further strengthening of rating linkages with the parent, Axiata.

LIQUIDITY

Solid Liquidity: At end-2017, Dialog had sufficient unrestricted cash balance of LKR7.9 billion and undrawn committed bank facilities of LKR13.6 billion to pay for its short-term debt maturities of about LKR11 billion.
Dialog has strong access to local banks, being among the largest corporates in Sri Lanka. Debt consists mainly of a USD149 million syndicated facility and LKR10 billion bank loan.
(COLOMBO, April 04, 2018)
 

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Sri Lanka’s flash floods in capital point to systemic institutional failure, ignored directives

ECONOMYNEXT – As torrential monsoon downpours transformed Sri Lanka’s commercial capital’s thoroughfares into raging brown rivers on Friday (06) submerging vehicles, paralyzing public transit, and inundating critical facilities like the National Hospital, the crisis was framed by authorities as an act of nature.

But for the millions of residents wading through waist-deep water, the disaster was not merely meteorological. It was man-made, preventable, and a glaring testament to gross institutional negligence.

Vraîe Cally Balthazaar, the Mayor of the island nation’s biggest local governing body Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) posted on her FaceBook (Meta) platform just a week ago before the floods that people in her ward “have had to live with the risk of flooding for years” after the stormwater drain running through the Jawatta Public Cemetery collapsed in 2019.

She said in the post that she promised the residents that the CMC would get the repairs done before the end of September, and she was happy to say that the CMC has “managed to complete the work by September 15.

“And sometimes, something as simple as fixing a drain can make a real difference to an entire neighbourhood,” Balthazaar said.

However, the flash floods saw the same area heavily flooded despite the ‘fixing’ by the CMC.

Just 24 days before the floods, Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya herself issued a direct, unequivocal order to government officials and municipal authorities to treat the cleaning of Colombo’s canal and drainage systems as an exceptional priority.

She directed to expedite the work and complete it within two weeks to ensure proper rainwater management amid anticipated increases in rainfall.

Prime Minister Amarasuriya issued these directives while addressing the Colombo District Coordinating Committee meeting held on October 13 at the Narahenpita District Secretariat.

During the meeting, officials from divisional secretariat offices, the Agrarian Development Department, and the Provincial Irrigation Department highlighted existing challenges in cleaning drainage and canal systems, noting issues such as a shortage of technical officers and difficulties faced in formulating plans and estimates.

Her instruction came in response to early meteorological indicators pointing toward an intensifying inter-monsoonal rainfall season.

But the floods last week proved that these directives had been ignored, delayed, and left unimplemented by the very bodies sworn to protect the city’s populace.

Recognizing the chronic vulnerability of the commercial capital’s low-lying geography, the Prime Minister instructed relevant stakeholders to systematically clear Colombo’s primary canals, secondary outlets, and subterranean drainage systems.

Crucially, the directive came with a strict deadline: a two-week window to complete the comprehensive clearing of blockages, silt, and solid waste that choke the city’s waterways.

Colombo would not have had last week’s floods, had the Prime Minister’s instruction been heeded and executed.

But the Prime Minister’s instruction designed precisely to preempt the catastrophic urban flooding that has chronically plagued Colombo during heavy weather was ignored.

Yet, when the skies opened up last Friday (06), the two-week deadline had long expired into the ether of bureaucratic inaction.

The canals remained congested with plastic debris, unauthorized construction bottlenecks, and thick layers of silt.

The drainage systems, starved of maintenance, failed instantly.

Neither the central government machinery nor the Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) can wash their hands of accountability.

The ‘Clean Sri Lanka’ programme under the current government has been created to deal with prevention of flooding among many other ambitious goals.

“The responsibility for this damage must be borne by the President even more than the Mayor,” former Urban Development and Megapolis Minister Champika Ranawaka, a strong government critic, said on his YouTube platform.

“He is the head of the disaster management apparatus, and ‘Clean Sri Lanka’ operates under his direct leadership. Because of his actions and their administrative conduct, the entire state machinery has been brought to a standstill.”

Anatomy of Municipal Paralysis

When orders from the higher office like Prime Minister of the state can be casually sidelined by municipal inertia, it exposes a profound fracture in governance, one where public safety is compromised by institutional paralysis.

At the heart of Colombo’s drainage crisis is a systemic failure of local governance and inter-agency coordination.

The Colombo Municipal Council, tasked with the day-to-day stewardship of municipal infrastructure, waste management, and local drainage networks, has long operated in an administrative comfort zone characterized by reactive posturing rather than proactive mitigation.

When the Prime Minister’s directive was issued in mid-October, it should have triggered an immediate emergency mobilization.

Municipal work crews, heavy machinery, and desilting operations ought to have been deployed across every vulnerable ward, from the commercial hubs of Fort and Pettah to densely populated residential quarters like Borella, Wellawatte, and Grandpass.

Instead, citizens witnessed what can only be described as administrative inertia.

Bureaucratic red tape, sluggish procurement of maintenance contracts, and a lack of accountability mechanisms meant that instructions from the Prime Minister trickled down into endless committee meetings rather than field operations.

By treating a critical pre-monsoon cleanup as a routine administrative task rather than an urgent, life-saving imperative, municipal officials displayed a reckless disregard for urban risk management.

The government repeatedly said it has collected ample tax revenue to run the country. But that money could not be used urgently to protect the Colombo city when it was evident what was going to happen as per Prime Minister Amarasuriya’s instructions.

Furthermore, the failure extends beyond mere delayed cleanups to encompass chronic structural enforcement failures.

Over decades, Colombo’s natural hydrological buffers including its wetlands, marshes, and secondary flood retention areas have been systematically degraded or encroached upon by uncoordinated commercial and residential developments.

When drainage systems are clogged with garbage while vital retention pathways are blocked by concrete, even a standard heavy downpour is bound to trigger catastrophe.

Friday’s deluge merely exposed the cumulative cost of this willful administrative blindness.

Economic Toll of Negligence

The consequences of this systemic failure were borne immediately by ordinary citizens and critical public infrastructure.

The inundation of the National Hospital of Sri Lanka, where floodwaters unprecedentedly breached critical service areas, should be considered a national scandal.

That a premier healthcare institution can be crippled within 2 hours of heavy rain, jeopardizing patient care and compromising sterile environments, illustrates the deadly stakes of municipal failure.

Beyond the hospitals, small business owners watched their livelihoods float away, commuters were stranded for hours in gridlocked, submerged buses, and low-income families residing in underserved settlements suffered extensive property damage.

For an urban economy trying to anchor Sri Lanka’s fragile post-crisis recovery, recurring paralyzing floods exact a heavy toll in lost productivity, infrastructure damage, and emergency response costs.

Accountability

The CMC and government have pointed fingers at the illegal structures erected under past governments for the latest disaster. But this government has already been in power for two years.

In the aftermath of the disaster, routine finger-pointing between central agencies and municipal bodies also has begun, with officials attempting to deflect blame onto unprecedented rainfall volumes.

But meteorological data offers no refuge for negligent administrators.

The rainfall, while heavy, was seasonally anticipated; indeed, it was precisely why the Prime Minister issued her October directive.

When a directive issued by the second-in-command of the country is left gathering dust on a municipal desk while citizens face preventable devastation, the social contract breaks down.

The current government and the Colombo Municipal Council cannot hide behind excuses of resource constraints or administrative oversight.

Preventing flash floods requires more than issuing seasonal press releases or convening post-disaster committees after the water has receded.

It demands rigorous enforcement, transparent institutional accountability, and a zero-tolerance approach to administrative lethargy.

If the authorities cannot execute basic drainage maintenance, Colombo will remain structurally vulnerable, hostage to the next raincloud, and failed by the very institutions meant to protect it. (Colombo/November 08/2026)

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Sri Lanka rupee closes at 332.53/59 to US dollar spot, bond yields edge up

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s rupee closed at 332.53/59 to the US dollar spot on Monday, from 332.55/60 the previous day, while bond yields closed higher, dealers said.

A bond maturing on 15.09.2029 closed at 190/98 percent, up from 10.85/95 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.08.2030 closed at 11.07/12 percent, up from 11.05/10 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.02.2031 closed at 11.30/40 percent, up from 11.10/15 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.12.2032 closed at 11.65/70 percent, up from 11.55/65 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.11.2033 closed at 11.95/12.00 percent, up from 11.90/95 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.10.2034 closed at 12.10/15 percent, up from 12.05/12 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.08.2036 closed at 12.40/50 percent, up from 12.30/40 percent. (Colombo/Nov9/2026)

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Sri Lanka stocks close up 1.37-pct, banks lead turnover

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Colombo Stock Exchange closed up on Monday, CSE data showed, with the benchmark All Share Price Index moving up 1.37 percent.

The ASPI was up 291.72 points at 21,531.37, while the more liquid S&P SL20 was up 1.67 percent, or 100.96 points, at 6,146.34.

Positive contributors to the ASPI were Commercial Bank of Ceylon (up 2.86 percent at 216.00 rupees), Hatton National Bank (up 1.52 percent at 399.75 rupees), Asiri Hospital Holdings (up 12.86 percent at 31.60 rupees), Tokyo Cement Company (up 5.22 percent at 84.70 rupees), and Access Engineering (up 3.93 percent at 81.90 rupees).

Carson Cumberbatch (down 4.24 percent at 712.00 rupees), Richard Pieris and Company (down 2.43 percent at 28.10 rupees), LOLC Holdings (down 0.62 percent at 400.00 rupees), Renuka Holdings (down 2.63 percent at 37.00 rupees), and Chevron Lubricants Lanka (down 0.61 percent at 204.25 rupees) were top negative contributors.

Market turnover was 3.33 billion rupees. The S&P/CSE Banks Industry Group led turnover with 667.76 million rupees.

The session saw heavy crossings, according to Raynal Wickremeratne, Head of Research and Strategy at NDB Securities. Significant crossings included Keells (23 million rupees), Distilleries Company (27.7 million rupees), Sunshine Holdings (30.6 million rupees), Commercial Bank (32.4 million rupees), Ceylon Tobacco Company (35.6 million rupees), Hatton National Bank (39.5 million rupees), Prime Lands (40.5 million rupees), and HAS Holdings (41.5 million rupees).

In corporate news, Hayleys Retail Holdings Ltd announced it has partnered with supply chain software provider Blue Yonder to build and scale an AI-native grocery supermarket chain across Sri Lanka. (Colombo/Nov09/2026)

 

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Sri Lanka’s Hayleys Retail to launch supermarket chain with Blue Yonder

ECONOMYNEXT — Hayleys Retail Holdings Ltd has selected supply chain software provider Blue Yonder to build its grocery retail operations from the ground up, the two companies said in a joint statement.

Hayleys Retail, a member of Sri Lanka’s diversified conglomerate Hayleys Group, plans to open several stores in the near future to serve consumers across the country. The agreement marks Blue Yonder’s first retail customer in Sri Lanka.

“Our entry into supermarket retail is about bringing that same commitment to quality and reliability closer to everyday Sri Lankan consumers,” Mohan Pandithage, Chairman and Chief Executive of Hayleys PLC said.

“With Blue Yonder, our teams will have AI-driven insight to deliver a seamless, consistent shopping experience across every store,” he said.

Hayleys, which accounts for approximately 5 percent of Sri Lanka’s export income and operates across 17 business sectors, is entering the large-scale supermarket space by drawing on its group strengths in manufacturing, logistics, and services.

The company selected Blue Yonder to connect its data across merchandising and shelf space, deploy artificial intelligence agents to catch operational issues early, and scale its business into a national network without changing platforms.

The rollout will begin with merchandise operations to manage suppliers, items, costs, and pricing, followed by machine learning capabilities to forecast demand and balance store inventory during seasonal peaks.

“Hayleys Retail is choosing one where AI is the foundation rather than an add-on—connected data and agentic AI built into core merchandising operations, and planning that learns as the business grows,” Antonio Boccalandro, President, APAC at Blue Yonder said.

The retailer plans to use the platform to automate routine store tasks and adjust inventory according to real-time sales and local market trends as its store footprint grows. (Colombo/Nov09/2026)

 

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Sri Lanka’s Citrus Leisure extends Lotus Tower management pact

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka listed hospitality firm Citrus Leisure said it has extended an agreement to manage consumer-facing and entertainment spaces at the Colombo Lotus Tower, which includes revolving restaurant Blue Orbit, until June next year.

The initial agreement signed between Citrus Leisure and Colombo Lotus Tower Management Company (Private) Limited (CLTMC) is due to expire on December 11.

“The Board of Directors of CLTMC at meeting held on 2nd November 2026 has resolved to extend the term of the Management Agreement and continue the existing Management Agreement until 30th June 2027, to which the company has given its concurrence,” the company said in a market filing.

Citrus Leisure Plc opened its revolving restaurant at the Lotus Tower in December 2023.

The company signed a 3-year agreement with CLTMC in May 2023 to provide services in the management of (l) the banquet hall 1 on the 25th floor, (2) the banquet hall 2 on the 26th floor, (3) the revolving restaurant on the 27th floor, (4) the 6 suites situated on the 28th floor and the kitchen in the basement floor of the Colombo Lotus Tower.

The 350-meter or 1,150-feet tower, the tallest in South Asia, was built at a cost 104.3 million US dollars with 80 percent of the money borrowed from Exim Bank of China.

Located in the commercial heart of Colombo, the tower has been called a symbolic landmark of Sri Lanka as well as a colossal white elephant and has been mired in controversy for years. (Colombo/Nov9/2026)

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CIC Holdings Sept quarter net profit rises 20-pct to Rs1.7bn

ECONOMYNEXT — Sri Lanka conglomerate CIC Holdings recorded a net profit of 1.66 billion rupees for the quarter ended September 30, rising 20.3 percent from 1.38 billion rupees in the same quarter last year, interim accounts showed.

The group posted basic earnings per share of 0.87 rupees for the September quarter, up from 0.73 rupees a year earlier.

Quarterly revenue grew 3.4 percent to 20.89 billion rupees from 20.20 billion rupees, supported by broad-based growth across industrial solutions, livestock, and healthcare segments, which counterbalanced relative demand moderation in agricultural inputs.

Cost of sales rose 5.3 percent to 15.20 billion rupees, outpacing revenue growth and causing gross profit to contract marginally by 1.2 percent to 5.68 billion rupees.

Results from operating activities dropped 7.3 percent to 2.66 billion rupees from 2.87 billion rupees, impacted by higher operating overheads.

Selling expenses expanded 6.8 percent to 2.15 billion rupees, and general and administrative expenses climbed 5.8 percent to 1.07 billion rupees, while other operating income dropped 29.6 percent to 117.40 million rupees.

However, operating profits were cushioned by an impairment reversal on trade receivables of 85.83 million rupees, turning around from an impairment provision of 23.38 million rupees in the corresponding quarter last year.

Net finance costs climbed 35.4 percent to 712.25 million rupees from 526.01 million rupees.

The increase was driven by a 30.8 percent rise in finance expenses to 771.46 million rupees, primarily reflecting higher interest expenses on loans to finance elevated working capital and inventory requirements.

The quarter’s bottom line was strongly bolstered by CIC’s equity-accounted investment in John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH).

Share of profit from equity-accounted investees surged more than fourfold to 590.50 million rupees from 257.87 million rupees, driven by JKH’s strong profit expansion during the period.

The group also recognized a gain on bargain purchase of 55.59 million rupees during the quarter resulting from additional share purchases in JKH where the proportionate net asset value exceeded acquisition cost, compared to no such gain a year earlier.

With associate income gains offsetting operating margin contraction and higher borrowing costs, group pre-tax profit held virtually flat at 2.59 billion rupees, down 0.11 percent.

Income tax expense fell 29.4 percent to 606.24 million rupees from 858.71 million rupees, driving total group profit for the period up 14.1 percent to 1.98 billion rupees.

Total group assets stood at 108.58 billion rupees as of September 30, up from 99.75 billion rupees at the end of March 2026.

Group net asset value per share increased to 25.52 rupees from 22.10 rupees a year earlier.

CIC Holdings’ ordinary voting shares closed at 27.80 rupees at the end of September.(Colombo/Nov09/2026)

 

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