Banking

Fitch confirms ‘A-(lka)’ domestic rating of National Development Bank Plc

Thursday July 25, 2024 6:00 am

ECONOMYNEXT – Fitch Ratings said it was confirming an A-(lka) rating on Sri Lanka’s National Development Bank Plc with a Stable outlook, amid an improvement in operating environment, indicated by headline macroeconomic indicators.

Fitch said it expects Sri Lanka’s stabilising macroeconomic environment to support NDB’s ability to generate and defend business volumes, but its business profile remains constrained by risks in the domestic operating environment which are still elevated.

“We expect NDB to benefit from the resumption in lending, albeit modest, thereby leading to an uptick in the share of net loans in total assets (end-1Q24: 57.5%), similar to peers.”

NDB’s risk profil remains tied to the credit and market risk of the sovereign, through its substantial exposure via the defaulted foreign-currency-denominated sovereign bonds (end-2023: 6.5% of assets) and a further 25.6% of assets in rupee-denominated treasury securities, the rating agency said.

The full statement is reproduced below:

Fitch Affirms National Development Bank at ‘A-(lka)’; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings – Colombo – 22 Jul 2024: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Sri Lanka-based National Development Bank PLC (NDB) National Long-Term Rating at ‘A-(lka)’. The Outlook is Stable. At the same time, Fitch has affirmed NDB’s Sri Lankan rupeedenominated proposed and outstanding subordinated debt at ‘BBB(EXP)(lka)’ and ‘BBB(lka)’, respectively.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Intrinsic Profile Drives Rating: NDB’s National Long-Term Rating reflects its own financial strength, which is highly influenced by its exposure to the sovereign’s weak credit profile (Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR): RD; LongTerm Local-Currency IDR: CCC-) and the ongoing sovereign debt restructuring, which had been putting pressure on NDB’s credit profile. The rating also reflects NDB’s modest domestic franchise as Sri Lanka’s sixth-largest commercial bank.

Stabilising OE: Sri Lankan banks’ operating environment (OE) continues to show signs of stabilisation, as evident in sustained improvements in reported headline macroeconomic indicators, supporting the recovery in banks’ operational flexibility.

Further improvement to the banks’ OE remains contingent on successful execution of the sovereign’s external debt-restructuring exercise alongside the restoration of the sovereign’s creditworthiness, given the strong link between sovereign financial health and banks’ operating conditions.

Economic Recovery Spurs Lending: Fitch expects Sri Lanka’s stabilising macroeconomic environment to support NDB’s ability to generate and defend business volumes, but its business profile remains constrained by risks in the domestic OE which are still elevated. We expect NDB to benefit from the resumption in lending, albeit modest, thereby leading to an uptick in the share of net loans in total assets (end-1Q24: 57.5%), similar to peers.

Exposure to Sovereign Risks: NDB’s risk profile, similar to peers, remains tied to the credit and market risk of the sovereign, through its substantial exposure via the defaulted foreign-currency-denominated sovereign bonds (end-2023: 6.5% of assets) and a further 25.6% of assets in rupee-denominated treasury securities. These exposures make the bank vulnerable to the sovereign’s repayment capacity and liquidity position. NDB has the
third-highest exposure to sovereign bonds, as a share of total assets, among local banks.

Asset Quality in Focus: NDB’s impaired (stage 3) loans ratio of nearly 17% at end-1Q24 (2023: 16.6%) is one of the highest among the large Fitch-rated Sri Lankan banks. Fitch expects this ratio to decrease in the near- to medium-term alongside focused recoveries, buttressed by the improvement in borrower repayment capacity and Fitch’s anticipated expansion in the bank’s loan book. Asset quality is burdened further by its large exposure
to the defaulted sovereign bonds.

Risks to Profitability Abate: We believe downside risks to NDB’s profitability have largely eased, even in the event of incremental credit costs from the restructuring of sovereign bonds if this results in the need for moderately higher provisions than already assumed. NDB’s core profitability metric – operating profit/risk-weighted assets – dipped to 1.8% in 1Q24 (2023: 2.3%). However, we expect this to improve in the medium term on account of a lower credit-cost burden relative to prior years which could outweigh the pressure on net interest margins.

Sovereign Risk Pressures Capital: The bank’s regulatory common equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio improved to 12.5% by end-1Q24 but remains one of the lowest among the large Fitch-rated Sri Lankan banks. Capital buffers remain under pressure, particularly from sovereign risks, given the bank’s exposure to defaulted sovereign bonds and the rupee-denominated government securities, in addition to capital-impairment risks on its loan book.

Funding and Liquidity Risks Ease: The foreign- and local-currency funding and liquidity stresses are less severe relative to the height of the crisis period, due to more favourable external sector flows and the bank’s focus on liquidity preservation. We believe these developments have reduced the risk of bank failure. However, NDB’s funding and liquidity profile – particularly in foreign currency – remains susceptible to sudden changes in creditor sentiment driven by adverse changes to the sovereign’s credit profile, similar to peers.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

The bank’s National Rating is sensitive to a change in its creditworthiness relative to other Sri Lankan issuers.

A deterioration in NDB’s key credit metrics beyond our base-case expectations relative to peers would also lead to increased pressure on the rating, which is driven by its intrinsic financial strength.

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

Positive rating action on the sovereign may lead to an upgrade in the rating. A sustained improvement in its key credit metrics beyond our base-case expectations relative to peers, could also lead to an upgrade.

OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS SUBORDINATED DEBT

NDB’s Sri Lankan rupee-denominated outstanding and proposed subordinated debt is rated two notches below the National Long-Term Rating anchor. This reflects Fitch’s baseline notching for loss severity for this type of debt, and our expectations of poor recoveries. There is no additional notching for non-performance risks, as the notes do not incorporate going-concern loss-absorption features.

OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES

The subordinated debt ratings will move in tandem with the bank’s National Long-Term Rating.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com (Colombo/Jul24/2024)

Markets

Sri Lanka stocks close down 0.60-pct, dragged by HNB and LOLC

Friday November 13, 2026 3:28 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Colombo Stock Exchange closed down on Friday, CSE data showed, with the benchmark All Share Price Index moving down 0.60 percent.

The ASPI was down 133.22 points at 22,024.18, while the more liquid S&P SL20 was down 1.06 percent, or 67.55 points, at 6,298.02.

The ASPI ended the week up 784.53 points from last Friday.

Positive contributors to the ASPI were Dialog Axiata (up 0.40 percent at 50.20 rupees), Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka (up 0.52 percent at 58.30 rupees), Aitken Spence (up 3.60 percent at 151.00 rupees), Ceylon Tobacco Company (up 1.05 percent at 1,828.50 rupees), and LOLC Finance (up 1.96 percent at 5.20 rupees).

Hatton National Bank (down 1.88 percent at 403.75 rupees), Richard Pieris and Company (down 6.21 percent at 27.20 rupees), LOLC Holdings (down 2.17 percent at 405.00 rupees), Sampath Bank (down 1.91 percent at 154.00 rupees), and Singer (Sri Lanka) (down 2.40 percent at 77.30 rupees) were top negative contributors.

Market turnover was 3.23 billion rupees. Capital goods led turnover with 869.21 million rupees. (Colombo/Nov13/2026)

Economy

Sri Lanka MP slams budget speech for omitting Tamil national question

Friday November 13, 2026 2:56 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – A Sri Lanka legislator has voiced strong disappointment that the President’s budget speech failed to make a single mention of the Tamil national question.

“It is very unfortunate that in His Excellency the President’s speech, there has not been a single word mentioned about the Tamil national question. Not a single word,” Shanakiyan Rasamanickam said.

“A budget speech generally, is a policy direction of the government for the next year. The budget speech is not only a statement of the country’s fiscal position or the economy’s position. It is the country’s, the government’s, plan, or what the government plans to do the following year. That’s a policy statement.”

Former presidents would at least mention the Tamil question even if it was not resolved, he said.

Former President Ranil Wickremesinghe in his speech, in his policy statement, he would mention: “The Tamil national question must be resolved,” Rasamanickam said.

Former Presidents Maithripala Sirisena and Gotabaya Rajapaksa also mentioned that the national ethnic question must be resolved, he added.

“Every President, every country’s Head of State, in their policy statements, have acknowledged the fact that there is an unresolved national issue, the Tamil national question, that it needs to be resolved. Various governments have proposed various mechanisms; none of them have succeeded, but at least it was mentioned.”

This year’s budget made allocations for the Office of Missing Persons, and the Office of Reparations.

“But the domestic mechanism is a mechanism that the victim community has rejected. So you all are allocating money to a mechanism where the victim community is not going to be part of.”

Last year’s budget 1 billion was allocated to be spent on the Trincomalee and Jaffna airports.

“Where was that 1 billion for the Trincomalee and Jaffna airports spent last year?”

“The trajectory of this government, Honourable Deputy Speaker, is worrying to me. It’s really worrying to me. Because if the objective is to say that there is no Tamil national question, if the objective is to say that you all have resolved any ethnic issue that this country faced, then Honourable Deputy Speaker, then I think the Tamil people will teach this government a very, very, very harsh lesson in the future.” (Colombo/Nov13/2026)

Bonds & Forex

Sri Lanka sells extra Rs6.5bn Treasury bills after auction

Friday November 13, 2026 12:32 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka has sold 6,500 million rupees of treasury bills offered on tap at an average rate of 9.95 percent, the public debt management office said, bringing the total of bills sold in the week to 85.562 billion rupees.

The issue offered 90 billion.

Total market subscription was 6.5 billion rupees.

The debt office sold a 12-month bill at 9.95 percent.

On Wednesday (11) the debt office raised 79 billion rupees of 3, 6 and 12 month bills after offering 90 billion.

The settlement date is November 13. (Colombo/Nov13/2026)

Construction and Real Estate

Access Engineering Sept quarter group net profit surges 200-pct to Rs4.75bn

Friday November 13, 2026 12:15 pm

ECONOMYNEXT — Sri Lanka’s Access Engineering PLC recorded a group net profit attributable to equity holders of Rs. 4.75 billion for the quarter ended September 30, surging 200 percent from Rs. 1.58 billion a year earlier, interim accounts showed.

Basic earnings per share rose to Rs. 4.08 for the September quarter, up from Rs. 1.58 previously.

Quarterly group revenue expanded 36 percent to Rs. 20.39 billion from Rs. 14.94 billion, underpinned by condominium property handovers — reflected in inventories dropping Rs. 7.69 billion since March to Rs. 35.71 billion — alongside strong automobile sales and steady civil engineering execution.

Cost of sales rose at a slower 27 percent to Rs. 14.34 billion, lifting gross profit by 64 percent to Rs. 6.05 billion and expanding gross margins to 29.7 percent from 24.7 percent.

Other income jumped 144 percent to Rs. 259.9 million, while administrative expenses rose 75 percent to Rs. 1.14 billion, leaving operating profit up 64 percent at Rs. 5.16 billion.

However, finance costs more than doubled, rising 107 percent to Rs. 1.18 billion on elevated group borrowings of Rs. 43.74 billion, partly offset by finance income climbing 302 percent to Rs. 42.2 million.

Share of results from equity-accounted investees rose 122 percent to Rs. 26.7 million, pushing pre-tax profit up 56 percent to Rs. 4.05 billion.

Income tax swung to a net reversal of Rs. 186.6 million from an expense of Rs. 804.1 million, boosted by deferred tax assets on unrelieved losses from a 100 percent enhanced capital allowance claimed by 60 percent-owned radiopharmaceutical subsidiary Access Medical Tracers (Private) Limited.

Total period profit rose 136 percent to Rs. 4.24 billion, with non-controlling interest declining 24 percent to Rs. 164.9 million following last year’s buyout of minority shareholders in Harbour Village (Private) Limited.

No separate exchange gain or loss was itemized in quarterly earnings, though foreign currency translation via associates recorded a Rs. 17.4 million loss in other comprehensive income, alongside USD 16.6 million in corporate guarantees.

Notes also flagged an expected Rs. 1.45 billion recovery from the terminated South Asia Commercial and Logistics Hub project, a Rs. 225 million post-quarter legal settlement already provided for, and a Supreme Court appeal over a 2011/12 PAYE tax ruling.

Group assets stood at Rs. 132.4 billion as of September 30, with net asset value per share at Rs. 46.70, as the Employees’ Provident Fund raised its stake to 5.69 percent.

Access Engineering shares closed at 80.00 rupees at the end of September and are currently trading around 85.80 rupees. (Colombo/Nov13/2026)

Economy

Sri Lanka private sector says timely implementation of Budget 2027 key

Friday November 13, 2026 11:43 am

ECONOMYNEXT – Private sector body, The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, said it was encouraged by the broad direction of Budget 2027, noting that it reinforces Sri Lanka’s commitment to economic transformation while maintaining policy continuity, macroeconomic stability, and fiscal discipline.

“This continuity is particularly important as the country seeks to transition from economic stabilisation to a more durable, investment-led growth trajectory.”

The chamber also noted several areas where the Budget could have placed greater emphasis to strengthen the country’s growth prospects.

“In particular, there is a need for a stronger focus on attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), accelerating factor market reforms, particularly in land and labour, and fast-tracking public procurement reforms to improve the efficiency and speed of project implementation.

“More targeted and actionable proposals could have been introduced to unlock the potential of sectors with significant growth opportunities, including tourism, agriculture, IT/BPO and logistics.”

The chamber said the budget contains positive measures aimed at enhancing competitiveness, and external sector resilience, while presenting opportunities for focus on sectors that can accelerate growth.

“A number of the key structural reforms identified in last year’s Budget have been carried forward and strengthened, providing greater certainty and predictability to businesses and investors.

“These include the continued implementation of the Trade National Single Window (TNSW), the phased removal of para-tariffs, the rollout of the Digital ID framework, efforts to expand market access through new Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), the strengthening of one-stop-shop investment facilitation mechanisms, progress on Customs reforms, the expansion of Bandaranaike International Airport (BIA), enhanced financing support for SMEs, and reforms relating to the management of State-Owned Enterprises.”

The CCC said that more than 20 proposals submitted by it have been reflected in Budget 2027.

These include measures to strengthen investor facilitation through the establishment of a professionally managed investment promotion agency; continued efforts to improve trade facilitation and export competitiveness; the Government’s consideration of a successor programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF); accelerated progress on key legislative reforms; the expansion of digital government services; and the promotion of cashless payments and broader digital adoption. The Budget has also captured several priorities relating to energy security, including the accelerated deployment of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and investments in fuel storage infrastructure, initiatives to optimize underutilized agricultural land, measures to support the expansion of the digital economy and the IT/BPO sector, and tax reforms to support exporters, including the acceptance of newly VAT-registered exporters as eligible exporters.

“The inclusion of these priorities reflects the value of sustained public-private dialogue and demonstrates increasing alignment between national policy objectives and the needs of a competitive, export-oriented economy.

“The priority now must be effective and timely implementation to translate policy commitments into investment, competitiveness, exports and sustainable growth.” (Colombo/Nov13/2026)