Fitch Ratings – Colombo – 17 Aug 2026: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Sri Lanka-based Sampath Bank PLC’s National Long-Term Rating at ‘AA-(lka)’. The Outlook is Stable. At the same time, Fitch has affirmed Sampath’s outstanding Sri Lankan rupee subordinated debt at ‘A(lka)’.
Key Rating Drivers
Intrinsic Profile Drives Rating: Sampath’s National Long-Term Rating reflects its own financial strength, which is highly influenced by exposure to the sovereign’s weak credit profile (Long-Term Foreign-Currency and Local Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘CCC+’). The rating reflects predominantly domestic operations and direct and indirect sovereign exposure, counterbalanced by a strong domestic franchise as Sri Lanka’s fifth-largest commercial bank.
Sovereign Profile Shapes OE: The sovereign’s weak credit profile continues to drive our assessment of the banks’ operating environment (OE) score of ‘ccc+’. This reflects predominant exposure to the domestic economic environment and large exposure to the sovereign through government securities and lending to the broader public sector, which links the banks closely to the state’s financial health. Fitch expects the OE to remain broadly supportive; however external headwinds may exert pressure on the domestic OE and thereby, sector performance.
Corporate Lending Gaining Traction: Corporate lending, including mid-sized corporates, continued to dominate Sampath’s loan book, representing 53% of total loans at end-2025 and rising further in 1Q26. We expect this shift to continue, as the bank looks to mitigate downside risks stemming from a weaker OE, which is likely to weigh more on retail and SME borrowers. Cross-border lending should remain a key driver of this shift – at least a quarter of incremental corporate loan growth in 2025 and 1Q26.
High Growth Plans: Sampath’s risk profile remains influenced by its exposure to the challenging OE. Government securities holdings accounted for nearly one-third of total assets at end-2025. Loan growth has also remained strong, expanding by 28% in 2025 and a further 11% in 1Q26. The bank intends to sustain this pace, targeting 2026 growth broadly in line with 2025, driven primarily by the corporate and retail segment. Persistent, rapid balance-sheet expansion could pressure loan quality and liquidity, if not held to consistent underwriting standards.
Asset Quality to Weaken: Sampath’s impaired (stage 3) loan ratio improved to 9.3% at end-2025 (end-2024: 13.5%), with the trend sustained into 1Q26 – largely from loan growth, while new defaults rose only modestly. Nevertheless, the ratio remains among the highest of similarly rated private-sector peers, weighed down by SME defaults. Fitch expects credit impairments to increase moderately over the near-to-medium term amid a challenging OE, although rapid loan expansion should lead to further drops in the impaired-loan ratio.
Profitability to Moderate: Sampath’s operating profit/risk weighted assets (RWA) dipped to 4.4% in 1Q26 from 6.5% in 2025, due primarily to credit costs which accounted for 26% of pre-impairment operating profit. We expect profitability to hold steady in 2026-2027, as higher income from loan growth should be offset by narrower margins and higher impairment charges from new lending. Profitability is supported partly by a rising share of non-interest income, mainly fees and commission income: 21% of total operating income in 1Q26 (2025: 19%).
Capital Buffers Narrowing: We expect the common equity Tier-1 (CET1) ratio to continue to decline from 14.0% (including 1Q26 profit) at end-1Q26, reflecting loan growth, dividend payments and mark-to-market losses on the Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income (FVOCI) government securities portfolio. We believe RWA growth and valuation losses as interest rates rise will continue to weigh on capital ratios. Any capital support extended to subsidiaries would have a limited impact on overall capital, given the size of likely injections.
Loan Growth Reducing Liquidity: We expect Sampath’s loan/deposit ratio (LDR) to rise further from 82% at end-1Q26(2025: 78%; 2024: 68%), returning to pre-crisis levels, as the bank pursues strong loan growth. This growth has so far been funded largely by deploying excess liquidity alongside moderate deposit growth. Narrower liquidity buffers mean we expect loan growth to become increasingly deposit-funded. We believe access to foreign-currency term funding is showing early signs of improvement, in tandem with reduced sovereign default risk.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
Sampath’s National Rating is sensitive to a change in the bank’s creditworthiness relative to other Sri Lankan issuers. A downgrade of the National Rating would most likely stem from a deterioration in Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating, through its influence on the banks’ OE.
A deterioration in key credit metrics beyond our base-case expectations relative to peers would also lead to heavier downward pressure on the National Rating, which is driven by its intrinsic financial strength, independent of any sovereign rating changes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
Sampath’s National Rating is sensitive to a change in its creditworthiness relative to other Sri Lankan issuers. Upside to the National Rating is limited in the near term, due to our assessment of the sovereign rating and OE. That said, an improvement in the sovereign rating may lead to an upgrade of the bank’s National Rating.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
SUBORDINATED DEBT
Sampath’s Basel III-compliant Sri Lankan rupee subordinated debt is rated two notches below the National Long-Term Rating anchor. This reflects Fitch’s baseline notching for loss severity for this type of debt, and our expectation of poor recoveries. There is no additional notching for non-performance risks, as the notes do not incorporate going-concern loss-absorption features.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The subordinated debt rating will move in tandem with the bank’s National Long-Term Rating.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. (Colombo/Aug17/2026)
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