Politics

Sri Lanka president gains more support in potential presidential poll: IHP survey

Monday August 21, 2023 12:50 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – An opinion poll for July for presidential election voting intent showed that Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe has seen a steady rise in support though he is still behind opposition figures Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa.

A Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) polling by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP) for July 2023 showed a rise in support for Wickremsinghe to 19 percent of likely voters, but he remains well behind leftist National People’s Power (NPP) leader AK Dissanayake and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa at 39 and 33 percent respectively.

The IHP said in a statement that estimates are associated with a margin of error of 1 to 4 percent.

The trends in July largely maintain the pattern from previous months, but the latest data more strongly supports the recent up trend in support for President Wickremesinghe. They also suggest that recent gains in his support have been at the expense of SJB leader Sajith Premadasa, the IHP said.

A separate IHP survey for July showed a general decline for two major opposition parties and modest increases for the ruling party and the president’s party, though the largest share of likely voters remained unwilling to name a party they would support.

Support for Sri Lanka’s major parties largely unchanged but most voters uncommitted

SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection. IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of MRP, with multiple imputation to account for uncertainties in its modelling, exploiting data from all SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month, the institute said explaining its methodology.

The July 2023 MRP estimates are based on 466 interviews conducted in July 2023, and 12,269 interviews conducted overall from 1 October 2021–13 August 2023, with a margin of error assessed as 3–5 percent for the NPP/JVP, SJB, UNP and the SLPP, and 1–3 percent for the other parties. As the May update uses a more recent data set than the previous update, there are small changes in estimates of voting shares for previous months. A total of 62 stochastic simulations were used in the modelling to estimate margins of error, the IHP said.

MRP is a method that is increasingly used by polling firms in other countries to leverage small samples, most notably by YouGov which used it to forecast results of the UK Brexit Referendum and recent UK general elections. All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 Presidential and 2020 General Elections, the IHP said.

The SLOTS has been funded by the Neelan Tiruchelvam Trust, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), The Asia Foundation in Sri Lanka, and others, the institute said. (Colombo/Aug21/2023)

Economy

Sri Lanka Customs surpasses revenue goal for ninth straight month in Sept

Containers are shown at Ningbo-Zhoushan port on August 15, 2021. Suo Xianglu/VCG/Getty Images/CNN

Thursday October 1, 2026 7:17 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka Customs exceeded its monthly target for the ninth consecutive month in September, achieving the target before the month ended, official data showed.

Customs’ September revenue target was set at 195.6 billion rupees.

However, in the first 29 days of the month, the revenue-collecting body had already collected 245.9 billion rupees, exceeding the target, official data showed.

Customs has set a revenue target of 2,207 billion rupees for this year, 13.5 percent less than last year as it originally expected a significant decline in car imports.

Data showed it has already achieved 95.4 percent of this year’s target or 2,104.6 billion rupees even before the end of nine months.

Last year, Customs collected a record 2,551 billion rupees in revenue, exceeding an upwardly revised target of 2,241 billion rupees for the year and achieving 64.2 percent higher revenue than the previous year’s revenue of 1,553 million rupees.

Sri Lanka Customs’ revenue jump is largely due to stronger enforcement, improved valuation practices, and a rebound in import volumes after years of contraction.

Following the 2022 economic crisis, imports fell sharply as the country imposed restrictions to conserve foreign exchange.

However, with the stabilization of reserves, the relaxation of certain import controls, and a steady recovery in consumer demand, customs collections from import duties, excise, and other levies have risen.

Officials note that tighter monitoring of under-invoicing and misdeclaration of goods has also contributed to boosting state revenue.

The combined effect of increased import activity, currency movements, and stricter enforcement has positioned Customs as one of the top revenue sources for the Treasury in 2025, providing a vital cushion as the state works to meet fiscal targets under the IMF-supported program. (Colombo/October 01/2026)

Economy

Sri Lanka’s 2026 economic growth likely to hit three-year low

Thursday October 1, 2026 6:54 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s economic growth is likely to slow down this year compared to the last two years amid Middle Eastern escalation dragging down the island nation’s economic activities with high fuel prices.

Sri Lanka, recovering from an unprecedented economic crisis in 2022, expanded by 5 percent in both 2023 and 2024 after a contraction in the previous year.

However, it is expected to slow down this year weighed down by the impact of the Middle Eastern crisis.

Already, the country witnessed 4.2 percent economic growth in the second quarter of this year, its lowest in eight quarters.

Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said the growth will be above 4 percent this year, including the second half of this year.

“I think it is too early for us to give a number. But what we say is, second-half growth looks like it will remain above 4% for the next two quarters, based on the activity indicators. the actual activities taking place,” the Governor told reporters in a media briefing.

“We see growth will be above 4% in the two halves, but an annual projection we have not done yet; we will see later.”

In January while launching the Central Bank’s policy agenda for this year, Weerasinghe saidSri Lanka’s economic growth will be around 4-5 percent.

In June, Deputy Finance Minister Anil Jayantha Fernando said Sri Lanka still hopes to achieve 5 percent economic growth this year despite monetary policy tightening and falling consumption amid rising prices.

“The government projection is up to the government. I don’t think we should not comment on that,” the Governor said.

“The IMF has 3.5%. The government has something, the World Bank has given a projection, the ADB has another projection, so that is based on their own assumptions. We can comment on our projections only.” (Colombo/October 01/2026)

Economy

Sri Lanka current account surplus $133mn in Aug 2026 on lower import spend

Thursday October 1, 2026 4:01 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka recorded a 133 million US dollar surplus in its current account in August 2026, official data showed, following four months of deficits.

“The surplus was supported by the lower trade deficit compared to recent months, reflecting lower import expenditure,” the central bank said.

The current account recorded a deficit of 291 million dollars during January-August 2026, due to pressures on the external sector from the escalation of the conflict in West Asia.

The current account is a mirror image of the financial account (subject to errors and omissions).

The merchandise trade deficit widened in August 2026, year-on-year, due to higher import expenditure and lower export earnings.

The total trade deficit during January–August 2026 widened to 7.2 billion dollars, from 4.3 billion the previous year.

Total fuel import costs were around 4 billion dollars during January–August 2026, a 61.6 percent year-on-year increase.

Fuel import costs dropped for the fourth consecutive month in August 2026.

Motor vehicle import costs was 189 million dollars in August, a 24.2 percent drop from the same period last year.

Total motor vehicle imports during January–August 2026 was 1,684 million dollars.

“The terms of trade deteriorated on a year-on-year basis in August 2026, as import prices increased at a faster pace than export prices. Similarly, the terms of trade deteriorated during January–August 2026 compared to the corresponding period of 2025.”

The services account recorded a surplus of 220 million dollars in August, a 24.4 percent reduction from last August.

The total services account surplus during January-August 2026 fell 21.4 percent to 2.1 billion dollars, on a year-on-year basis.

Tourist arrivals fell 3.3 percent in the month compared to last August.

Total arrivals during January-August 2026 fell 2 percent, compared to the corresponding period of 2025.

Tourism earnings were estimated at 264 million dollars in August, a 2.1 percent increase from a year earlier.

But total tourism earnings during January-August 2026 fell 10 percent to 2.1 billion dollars, compared to 2025.

Workers’ remittances increased by 10 percent to 749 million in August and by 19.8 percent to 6.1 billion dollars during January-August.

Foreign investment in the government securities market saw a net inflow of 70.2 million dollars in the month.

Foreign investment in the Colombo Stock Exchange saw a net outflow of 58.1 million dollars.

Gross official reserves increased to 6.9 billion dollars by end August.

By end At the end of September, the rupee had depreciated by 6.3 percent against the US dollar on a year-to-date basis. (Colombo/Oct1/2026)

Markets

Sri Lanka stocks close up, banks lead turnover

Thursday October 1, 2026 3:28 pm

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Colombo Stock Exchange closed higher on Thursday, CSE data showed, with the benchmark All Share Price Index moving up 0.33 percent.

The ASPI was up 67.97 points at 20,880.90, while the more liquid S&P SL20 was up 0.14 percent, or 8.30 points, at 5,902.46.

Positive contributors to the ASPI were Dialog Axiata (up 1.33 percent at 45.80 rupees), Singer (Sri Lanka) (up 2.88 percent at 78.60 rupees), Carson Cumberbatch (up 1.32 percent at 729.50 rupees), LOLC Holdings (up 1.72 percent at 443.00 rupees), and Commercial Bank of Ceylon (up 0.25 percent at 203.00 rupees).

LOLC Finance (down 3.77 percent at 5.10 rupees), Sri Lanka Telecom (down 1.29 percent at 83.90 rupees), and People’s Leasing & Finance (down 2.78 percent at 17.50 rupees) were top negative contributors.

Market turnover was 1.43 billion rupees. The banking sector led turnover with 489.34 million rupees, followed by capital goods with 421.33 million rupees.

Crossings in Sampath Bank recorded a turnover of around 230 million rupees, with crossings also seen in Access Engineering, Lanka IOC, Hatton National Bank, and John Keells Holdings.

“Apart from that, there wasn’t anything significant to talk about. It was a fairly normal trading day,” Raynal Wickremeratne, Head of Research and Strategy at NDB Securities, said.

“I think we saw about 1.4 billion in turnover, which definitely showed a bit of an improvement, and today the market was also up by about 65 to 70 points. There is a slight renewal in sentiment, but I don’t think this is properly indicative of a long-term trend as such. This is more a cycle—every time there is a bit of a decline, you see people coming back to some good companies,” Wickremeratne said. (Colombo/Oct01/2026)

Health

Sri Lanka to fix prices for 90-pct of imported medicines within a year: NMRA

Thursday October 1, 2026 12:24 pm

ECONOMYNEXT — Sri Lanka’s National Medicines Regulatory Authority (NMRA) expects to enforce maximum retail prices (MRPs) for roughly 90 percent of imported medicines over the coming year, NMRA chairman Ananda Wijewickrama said.

The regulator is carrying out brand-specific price determinations across more than 6,000 registered formulations as pharmaceutical companies submit applications for their annual import permits.

“These 6,000 medicines exist under various brand names. For example, if we take the medicine called Metformin, I think it is registered under more than 30 brand names. We determine prices for all 30 of these separately,” Wijewickrama said.

The price-setting mechanism would encompass the majority of active imports within a 12-month period, he said.

While certain registered medicines imported only for sporadic state tenders may fall outside this cycle, active commercial imports will be capped.

Pricing determinations will remain an ongoing process to adjust for raw material costs and exchange rate shifts.

To prevent inflated transfer pricing, import costs (Cost, Insurance, and Freight – CIF) are benchmarked directly against domestic retail rates in the manufacturing nations, such as India or Bangladesh.

All approved maximum retail prices will be published on the NMRA website for consumer reference, NMRA officials told reporters.

Standardizing MRPs will eliminate regional disparities where retail pharmacies in areas like Jaffna, Anuradhapura, and Colombo sell identical products at differing prices, Wijewickrama claimed.

While setting MRPs or price caps on medicines is intended to protect patients from price gouging, and lower healthcare costs, critics point out that international pharmaceutical companies would opt to withdraw products from a country, especially a small market like Sri Lanka, rather than sell at a loss.

This would take away a patient’s access to possibly higher-quality meds and leave them with generic meds. (Colombo/Oct01/2026)

Construction and Real Estate

Sri Lanka construction activity PMI eases in August amid bitumen shortage

Thursday October 1, 2026 11:55 am

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s construction sector activity expanded at a slower rate in August 2026 due to an ongoing bitumen shortage, with a Purchasing Managers Index compiled by the central bank registering a value of 59.4 compared to 61.4 in July.

“Many survey respondents highlighted the ongoing bitumen shortage, which continued to constrain road construction progress, limiting the overall growth momentum of the construction industry,” the central bank said.

The New Orders Index expanded, registering 62.5 in August from 57.1 in July, “mainly driven by the government-funded projects” the central bank said.

The Quantity of Purchases Index rose at a slower rate, registering 59.4 from 64.7 in July.

The Employment Index registered 59.7, from July’s 61.8, “although many firms continued to report skilled labour shortages.”

“Many survey respondents continued to highlight persistent shortages of skilled labour and raw materials as key constraints to sectoral growth.”

The Suppliers’ Delivery Time remained high in August, reflecting prevailing workloads among suppliers, registering an index value of 59.4 from 60.0 in July.

Bitumen shortages and fluctuations in material prices continued to pose challenges, CBSL said. (Colombo/Oct1/2026)