An Echelon Media Company
Monday November 9th, 2026
Bellwether

Sri Lanka above target primary budget surplus partly due to central bank 'deflation'

The high nominal interest rate which is a function of monetary instability and destruction of domestic capital

March 23, 2026 7 min read

Sri Lanka's tax administration and justice - from revenue to repression

In one case matters 15 years old were raised. He ultimately simplified his affairs, and retreated from active business

March 2, 2026 18 min read

Sri Lanka should terminate CB swaps, lock in foreign reserves bought outright

More closely the single policy rate is targeted the, the bigger the crisis Sri Lanka will have

February 27, 2026 9 min read

Sri Lanka's new IMF loan, fx debt addiction, exposes fragility of monetary regime

Sri Lanka is facing external and domestic monetary headwinds in 2026

February 9, 2026 10 min read
Sri Lanka rupee depreciation slams democracy amid sound money in Qatar, Dubai

Qatar and Dubai protected their money from macro-economists in 1966

Sri Lanka budget current account in surplus after 38-years, depreciation threat looms : analysis

The current account surplus allowed a part of the capex to be financed with taxes for the first time since 1987

Sri Lanka should sell floating rate bonds to balance long term risks

True undated securities may be too ambitions but a start could be made with 5 to 10 year securities

Bellwether
May 19, 2025 8 min read

Sri Lanka 'single' policy rate signals interbank rates to stay up

Sri Lanka does not actually have a single policy rate like the Bank of England now

Bellwether
April 29, 2025 14 min read

How Taiwan avoided Sri Lanka's fate to become an export powerhouse

By the 1950s academics in US and UK had rejected economics of Hume, Ricardo and Smith, becoming branches without a tree

Bellwether
April 21, 2025 11 min read

Sri Lanka faces default risks after abandoning scarce reserve system

There are several red flags and one green one

Bellwether
April 14, 2025 13 min read

Sri Lanka should stop blocking export diversification, victimizing services after Trump tariff

There are quick fixes and numerous longer term reforms that can fundamentally change the country

Bellwether
April 7, 2025 10 min read

Sri Lanka current account turns to deficit in 4Q after printing money

The 4Q events were a dress rehearsal of what would happen later when private credit picks up

Bellwether
March 30, 2025 6 min read

Sri Lanka's central bank totally mistaken on 'single' Bank of England rate

There no political policy rate, single or otherwise during periods of stability and growth when good money was provided

Bellwether
February 13, 2025 13 min read

How to avoid Sri Lanka rice shortages, made by government controls

Food prices go up due to a combination of government controls and also money printing

Bellwether
January 6, 2025 9 min read
1

Sri Lanka vehicle imports not a threat to rupee but inflationary open market operations will be

Trade cannot cause monetary troubles. Monetary troubles are caused by flawed 'monetary policy'.

Bellwether
December 12, 2024 18 min read
1

Sri Lanka can cut floor rate, but targeting 'dysfunctional' call market will lead to trouble

Sri Lanka can cut or remove policy floor but should not print money for a mid corridor or single rate

Bellwether
November 25, 2024 13 min read
Morning Briefing Gain clarity on the biggest stories of the day with our daily newsletter, Morning Briefing
Latest Last
US Dollar 331.7485 330.8514
UK Pound 443.7468 438.3450
Euro 372.5204 371.0168
Yen 2.0969 2.0916
Aus Dollar 233.0533 231.1659
Source: Central Bank/Indicative
Latest Last
Indian Rupee 3.4948 3.4202
Korean Won 0.2499 0.2479
Oman Rial 861.6397 859.3320
Saudi Riyal 88.4403 88.0955
UAE Dirham 90.3209 90.0766
Source: Central Bank/Indicative
pts %
S&P SL20 5,656.91 -0.43%
CSE All Share 19,927.30 -0.28%
Turnover Rs 1457.79 million 1193.67 million
Source: CSE
Latest Last
3-m bill 7.61 7.84
6-m bill 7.91 8.26
12-m bill 8.23 8.3
3-yr bond 9.24 9.25
5-yr bond 9.82 9.56
8-yr bond 10.50 10.48
Source: Central Bank/Indicative
today yesterday
Overnight Money 7.70 7.69
Gilt Repo 7.74 7.72
I-m SLIBOR - -
Source: Central Bank/Indicative

Sri Lanka could negotiate tax credits for dependents, medical with IMF

Cutting VAT without changing the law to display tax separately may lead to them from being pocketed by businesses

Bellwether
November 20, 2024 10 min read

Sri Lanka prints Rs100bn through open market operations

A central bank with 'instrument independence' can print money at will

Bellwether
October 27, 2024 10 min read
1

IMF report brings dedollarization politics to Sri Lanka

Dedollarization and monetary policy modernization could turn the latest export powerhouse, Cambodia into a Sri Lanka

Bellwether
October 7, 2024 7 min read

In Sri Lanka deflation was common before the policy rate, IMF Second Amendment: Bellwether

Sri Lanka's inflation was the same as the US, before IMF's Second Amendment misled macroeconomists into bad anchors

October 1, 2024 6 min read

Sri Lanka told to go for single policy rate by IMF, target middle corridor rate

Exchange controls and depreciation, is sad indictment of a knowledge gap in the 'age of inflation'.

Bellwether
September 26, 2024 8 min read

Sri Lanka's central bank is 'independent' and only answerable to the IMF

The tragedy of the ungovernable third world with unsound money

Bellwether
September 11, 2024 23 min read
3

How 'full employment' policies trigger social unrest in Sri Lanka to Bangladesh

In Sri Lanka and pegged countries, rate cuts also trigger outmigration as currencies collapse

Bellwether
August 6, 2024 9 min read

Sri Lanka bondholder deal: hair cuts, coupons, GDP-link, too much or too little?

Deeper haircuts are not a guarantee against future defaults

July 4, 2024 8 min read

Central bank swaps symptomatic of Sri Lanka's IMF return tickets and default: Bellwether

Outlawing central bank swaps should be a key measure in preventing a second default

June 24, 2024 12 min read

How Sri Lanka's elections are decided by macro-economists and the IMF: Bellwether

Stabilization provide fertile grounds to elect the fringe

Bellwether
May 21, 2024 20 min read